2025 NFL Analysis and Picks: Week 16
2025 NFL: WEEK 16 — ANALYSIS AND PICKS
2025 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 134
LOSSES — 109
PUSH — 6
NET WIN/LOSS — +$1,090
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 10-8-0 (+$90)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $11,090.
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
[Click HERE to read the previous week’s report.]
NYJ-JAX — Player Prop: JAX QB to throw an interception-NO (-130)…W
NYJ-JAX — Player Prop: JAX QB Lawrence pass attempts UNDER 30.5 (-115)…L
CLE-CHI — First-Half Line: Cleveland + 5.5 (-115)…L
CLE-CHI — Full-Game Line: Cleveland +7.5…L
ARZ-HOU — Player Prop: QRZ QB Brissett OVER 233.5 passing yards (-115)…W
ARZ-HOU — Player Prop: HOU WR Collins OVER 5.5 receptions (-120)…L
ARZ-HOU — Player Prop: HOU PK Fairbairn OVER 1.5 (-165)…W
WAS-NYG — Full-Game Line: NY Giants -2.5…L
BAL-CIN — First-Half Line: Cincinnati +1…L
BAL-CIN — Full-Game Line: Cincinnati +3 (-120)…L
BAL-CIN — Full-Game Total: UNDER 52.5 (-115)…W
BUF-NWE — First-Half Line: New England +.5…W
LAC-KC — Player Prop: KC QB Mahomes to throw an interception-YES (-105)…W
CAR-NOR — First-Half Line: Carolina – .5…W
CAR-NOR — Full Game Line: Carolina -2.5…L
MIN-DAL — First-Half Team Total: Dallas OVER 13.5 points (-120)…W
MIN-DAL — Player Prop: MIN QB McCarthy OVER 193.5 passing yards (-115)…W
MIA-PIT — First-Half Line: Pittsburgh -1.5…W
ANALYSIS AND PICKS FOR WEEK 16:
LA RAMS vs. SEATTLE
Full-Game Line — Seattle +1 vs. LA Rams
Full-Game Total — UNDER 44.5
This looks like one of the best games of the year. Luckily, we get to watch it as a stand-alone game on this week’s TNF (too bad the greedy bastards make viewers pay extra to subscribe to Prime to enjoy football–a problem likely to spiral out of control if you’ve been fortunate enough to watch the NFL for free most of your life). The Rams are short favorites of -1, which is a bit surprising since the game is being played in Seattle, one of the toughest stadiums for visitors. Both teams are 11-4 SU (and an identical 5-2 SU in the road/home contrast), and should bring their best to the matchup as the victor becomes a decisive favorite to win the NFC crown with just three weeks still to play.
Everyone reading this knows how good these teams are, and it would be ridiculous to pretend I have any special insight into the game or know what might happen. However, if we add up multiple small “edges,” I think we can pick both the side and total.
Instinct tells me Seattle at home getting points is likely to be the right side for those so inclined. I also suspect Seattle may have sleepwalked mentally in preparation last week facing Indy at home in the previous game. That’s understandable in a contest that was lined at -14, which should have been an easy victory (given the Colts’ QB injuries). It sure appeared to be a “look ahead” situation for the Seahawks, which tells me they’ve probably been targeting this huge game, which is a *rematch.* Even though both teams were tested by their opponents last week, I also suspect the Rams could feel some hangover effects from the much more exhausting battle, having had to face Detroit, always a test for defenses. Two more intangibles may also work against the Rams this week: (1) WR Adams may be out with injury, and he’s the NFL’s leading TD scorer among all receivers this season. (2) Head Coach McVay’s wife just had a baby on Tuesday, which has to be a distraction–though that’s perhaps not an issue at all at this level…..it just seems worth mentioning since head coaches usually aren’t called to the hospital ward in midseason. Then again, Sean McVay is 17-3 SU in his last 20 December games. My summation is – multiple little things could work in Seattle’s favor.
In their Week 11 matchup won by LA Rams 21-19, Seattle played the much better game of the two, winning the yardage battle 414-249 and out first-downing the Rams 26-13. That’s dominance everywhere except the scoreboard. What killed Seattle was four turnovers. This does look like a good revenge spot for the home team.
Weather could also come into play Thursday night. The forecast calls for rain, temperature in the low 40s. Wind could also be an issue. One suspects outdoor Seattle is much better suited for these conditions against the dome-team warm-weather Rams, and QB M. Stafford has always enjoyed the cozy confines of 72-degree home field and carpet, both in LA and domed Detroit. Edge here to Seattle.
The game total is 44.5, which will certainly drop if rain and wind appear to be significant as gametime approaches. This is being written on Tuesday night, 48 hours in advance, so don’t blame me about line movements of changing weather forecasts, which can’t be predicted. If betting UNDER, I suggest moving as quickly as possible. Like NOW. This total can only go down, perhaps even to 43.5 or even 43 flat which means sacrificing the key number 44.
I think there’s enough here to go with both Seattle plus a full point and UNDER 44.5. But I want to capture those values now while I can.
<<< more to come >>>
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Final Picks for Week 16 (For those who just want the picks):
LAR-SEA: Full-Game Line — Seattle +1 vs. LA Rams…W
LAR-SEA: Full-Game Total — UNDER 44.5…L
NYJ-NOR: Full-Game Side — New Orleans -4.5 (-115)
NYJ-NOR — Player Prop — NOR QB Shough OVER 21.5 rushing yards (-115)
KC-TEN: Full-Game Line — Tennessee +3 (-105)
KC-TEN: First- Half Line — Tennessee +1 (-105)
LAC-DAL: Full-Game Line – LA Chargers +2
LAC-DAL: First-Quarter Moneyline – LA Chargers (+105)
LAC-DAL: Player Prop – Both Teams OVER 3.5 field goals (-110)
CIN-MIA: Full-Game Line — Cincinnati -4
ATL-ARZ: Player Prop — ARZ QB Brissett OVER 251.5 passing yards
NWE-BAL: Full-Game Line — New England +3 (-115)
NWE-BAL: First-Half Line — New England +1.5
LV-HOU: Player Prop — HOU PK Fairbairn OVER 2.5 FGs (+165)
IMPORTANT NOTE:
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CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week — up through Sat. night.
