2024 NFL Analysis and Picks: Week 6
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2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 47
LOSSES — 33
PUSH — 2
NET WIN/LOSS — plus $618
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 4-2 (+$175)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL; $10,618
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ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 5):
Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 5 REPORT HERE
First-Half Side: Tampa Bay +.5 (-115) … W
Team Kicking Prop: Both Team to Make 33+ Yard FGs – YES (-110) … W
Full Game Side: NY Giants +7 (-115) … W
Full-Game Total: IND-JAX UNDER 46 … L
First Quarter Side: New Orleans +.5 (-115) … L
First-Half Side: Dallas +1 vs. Pittsburgh … W
THIS WEEK’S ANALYSIS AND PICKS (WEEK 6):
THURSDAY NIGHT NFL: SFO AT SEA
San Francisco travels to Seattle for yet another excellent TNF matchup. So far, we’ve been treated to an outstanding lineup of mid-week games and this contest between NFC West rivals adds to a succession of very watchable (and bet-able) games.
However, both teams have struggled lately. The Seahawks and 49ers are coming off surprising upset losses last week. Both were favored big and lost in different ways. San Francisco, continuing to suffer from injuries especially on offense, fell asleep in the second half and lost at home to Arizona in a shocker. I wasn’t nearly as surprised by the Giants’ outright win over Seattle (I had the Giants as my best bet of Week 5). Even though most of the football world was on the Seahawks laying the points, the visiting Giants rolled to a relatively easy cover and victory.
Who wants this game more? That’s hard to say, but we certainly must give the edge to Seattle, which is playing at home with the advantage of a short preparation week. I’m not sure why anyone would lay -3.5 points in a division rivalry game with a team that seems to be out of sync right now. The 49ers appear to be valued with the same level of respect they were getting in preseason, before this sloppy team gave away two games in losses (vs. ARZ and LAR) and was absolutely dominated at Minnesota. Should the 49ers — who already lost two road games — really be laying more than a FG here?
One justification for the Seahawks getting more than a FG at home is the fact this is Seattle’s third game in 11 days (which admittedly is a tough mental and physical test for any team). However, this doesn’t just apply to the Seahawks. The 49ers also must play a similar stretch — three games in 12 days, and that included two road games. Add the fact this short week includes travel, whereas Seattle is back-to-back at home, and the extra day is neutralized. This argument about “3 games in 11 days” reminds me of the old handicapping myth that applies to horse racing. It went something like — don’t bet the favorite when it rains and there’s a muddy track. Yeah, but don’t all the horses have to run in the rain and the mud? Point being, the same conditions that apply to Seattle, also apply to San Francisco here.
Both teams have played soft schedules to date. Take away Minnesota (SFO) and Detroit (SEA) on each team’s schedule, and all the rest of the opponents are a combined 14-25 SU. And that SFO win in the opening MNF game hosting the NY Jets doesn’t appear nearly as impressive now that we’ve seen what a shitshow the Jets have turned into. I’m just not seeing why the 49ers are laying this number.
I’m wary of taking the points with SEA in the first half, as tempting as that option may be. Trouble is, SFO has been an excellent 1H team, but has also been terrible in the 2H. Bear this in mind when considering halftime wagers. The 49ers outscored their last three opponents 57-20 in first half, despite losing two of those games. And, the 49ers were outscored 44-20 in the 2H of those same last three games.
A major concern betting against San Francisco is — this team ranks 1st in offense in the NFL (passing yardage) and 2nd overall. They’re also #1 in time-of-possession. But they’ve also stalled badly in the red zone, ranking a woeful 29th in converting those opportunities to TDs. One expects SFO’s offensive stats to continue rolling up big facing a SEA defense with lots of problems and holes in it. This huge edge for SFO must also be a focus when assessing this matchup.
Player props favor SFO key players to put up above-average numbers. Initially, I looked to SFO TE Kiddle to exceed 4.5 receptions and also go OVER 48.5 receiving yards. However, I noticed when SFO is ahead in games, he gets fewer targets. If SFO enjoys a good 1H and is ahead, he might not get to those numbers. So, that keeps me off the Kiddle OVERs, though that was my early lean, especially with RB McCaffrey still ruled out. The better option for player props is SFO QB Purdy OVER on passing yardage. He’s listed at O/U 247.5. Note that Purdy did not play well versus last week against Arizona (just 54 pct. of his passes were completed) and yet he still finished with 244 passing yards. In his three previous games before that, Purdy exceeded 280 passing yards each time. He should enjoy some success versus a banged up Seahawks’ defense on a short week. I also like the fact SFO has played poorly in the 2H of these recent losses, which bodes well for a situation where SFO might not take their foot off the gas, even when ahead. This plays into an excellent hedge opportunity, which will be fully explained in the next section. However, Purdy’s recent performances, playing versus a soft defense, and likely motivated to “keep the pressure on” after two meltdown losses in the 4Q should help one of the league’s best QBs and most efficient passers on the road. Purdy is also 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in starts against Seattle.
Two bets–plus the reasons: I’m betting on Seattle +3.5 despite my concerns San Francisco might enjoy success on offense. I’m hoping the edge of playing at home on a short week keeps this game close. I’m also making a somewhat contradictory wager on a player prop for QB Purdy to go OVER on passing yardage. I expect that if SFO wins and covers (and we lose the side bet), Purdy will get his yardage and we lose a little juice. But I like our chances to win both. It’s also *very* possible that this turns into a close game, or even that SEA is ahead, which will force SFO to continue to throw for the entire game–translating into more passing yardage. Either way, that’s good for Purdy and yards and an OVER bet. I can’t stress enough how the late collapses in the ARZ and LAR games (both came back and won after being down 10 points) should inspire a more aggressive 49ers’ offensive effort this week by Shanahan and Co. Let’s also agree this is a big upgrade on opposition QBs the Seahawks have faced after seeing Nix (first game as rookie), Brissett (NWE), MIA’s terrible backup QB, and Jones (NYG). When SEA faced a top-notch passer, DET’s Goff, he was a perfect 18/18 for nearly 300 yards in a blowout win against this defense. Hence, I’m making two wagers which are a mix of a contradiction, a hedge, and a correlation.
Picks:
Full Game Side: Seattle +3.5
Player Prop: SFO QB Purdy OVER 247.5 passing yards (-115)
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THIS WEEK’S VIDEO:
LATE ADDED PICK: PLAYER PROP
In the Arizona-Green Bay game, I bet ARZ QB Murray to go OVER 32.5 rushing yards.
QB rushing yardage is largely dependent on whether the runs are by design or happen in response to an aggressive pass rush. With Murray, we get both possibilities. Aside from Jackson (BAL), Hurts (PHI), Allen (BUF), and Fields (when he was with CHI), no QB rushed for more yards than Murray in the last two seasons, and that’s with several games missed due to injury. Also note that Murray likes to tuck the ball and run with 7-1-5-5-5 attempts respectively in this season’s five games. The only game where he didn’t rush for 5+ carries was the blowout loss to WAS. Yardage wise, Murray has surpassed 32.5 yards in 4 of his 5 games, showing rushing yardage totals of 83-3-45-59-57 yards this season. So, he’s crushed this O/U in 4/5ths of games and now with the Packers up next we are likely to see him scramble. Against duel-threat QBs this season, which includes Richardson (IND) and Hurts (PHI), the Packers’ defense allowed those QBs to surpass this yardage total. We also have less a chance that Murray loses yardage at end of the game in kneel downs as the Cardinals are modestly priced underdogs in this contest (these last-second kneel downs sometimes kill yardage numbers, since 1-2 yards is subtracted on each kneel down). Coming off an 83-yard outburst in rushing yardage last week, I expect we’ll see Murray want to carry his team and will be willing to go for extra yardage in what is a big game for the Cardinals.
Player Prop: ARZ QB Murray OVER 32.5 rushing yards (-115)
LATE ADDED SUNDAY AM PICK:
I’m adding Washington in the first quarter at +3 (-115) at Baltimore. Both offenses have been excellent first half and first quarter teams this season. BAL QB Jackson’s record in first halves is stellar, which is likely the reason the lines on Ravens’ first-halves have been adjusted (which is rare in NFL betting). However, Washington’s productive streak the last three weeks cant be ignored — scoring on 27 of their last 34 drives. That’s as prolific a scoring percentage as you will ever see in the NFL. Baltimore gets way too much credit defensively — the numbers actual reveal something very different (ranked 24th in yards allowed — Washington is 19th). I don’t understand the line on this game at all, and I especially don’t get the Commanders getting a full FG in the first quarter, which essentially requires Baltimore to score a TD to cover the number. I’ll go with the hot team, getting generous points, against an overrated defense.
First Quarter Side: Washington +3 (-115)
THIS WEEK’S WAGERS–FINAL REPORT:
(for those who just want the picks)
Full Game Side: Seattle +3.5 … L
Player Prop: SFO QB Purdy OVER 247.5 passing yards (-115) … W
First-Half Side: Arizona +3.5 (-120) …
Moneyline: Tampa Bay -175 …
Player Prop: CLE QB Watson UNDER 192.5 passing yards …
Player Prop: PIT PK Boswell OVER 6.5 points (-137) …
Player Prop: LV PK Carlson OVER 6.5 points (-110) …
Full-Game Side: Detroit -3 …
Full-Game Side: NY Giants +3.5 …Player Prop: ARZ QB Murray OVER 32.5 rushing yards (-115)
First Quarter Side: Washington +3 (-115)
