2024 NFL Analysis and Picks: Week 5

 

 

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2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 43
LOSSES — 31
PUSH — 2
NET WIN/LOSS — plus $443
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 9-6 (+$145)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL; $10,443
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ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 4):

Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 4 REPORT HERE

Full Game Side: NY Giants +5.5 …. W
Team Total Points (Full Game): DEN OVER 15.5 …. L
First Quarter: DEN +2.5 (-105) …. W
Full Game Side: DEN +7.5 …. W
First-Half Side: NOR 1H +1.5 (-115) …. L
Full game Side: NOR +3 (-115) …. W
Full Game Side: WAS +3.5 (-115) …. W
Moneyline Wager: CLE (to win game) (-135) …. L
First Quarter Side: Minnesota 1Q +.5 (-135) …. W
First Quarter Side: Carolina 1Q +.5 (-130) …. L
First Quarter Side: Cleveland 1Q +.5 (-145) …. W
Player Prop: IND QB Richardson to throw an interception–YES (-140) …. L
Player Prop: NOR PK Grupe OVER 6.5 points (-125) …. L
Player Prop: IND PK Gay OVER 6.5 points (-105) …. W
Player Prop: WAS PK Seibert OVER 6.5 points (-110) …. W

 

THIS WEEK’S ANALYSIS AND PICKS (WEEK 5):

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (Thursday)
Pointspread: Falcons -2.5
Moneylines: Falcons -130 / Buccaneers +105
Total: 43.5

We’re being treated to another good Thursday night NFL game this week, which is an NFC South matchup between division rivals. My first instinct is to grab the underdog Bucs plus the points at nearly a FG, who have been the more consistent team this season at 3-1 — both SU and ATS. Aside from a head-scratching home loss to Denver a few weeks ago, Tampa Bay has exceeded market projections, so far, and remains on track to defend their division crown. Nothing inspires more confidence than beating rivals on the road, particularly on a short prep week.

Atlanta’s victory versus New Orleans last week was ridiculously misleading. Two fluke plays gave the Falcons a 17-14 halftime lead (including a muffed punt in the end zone, and a wild deflected pass for a pick-6). Fact is, Atlanta failed to score an offensive TD last week (four FGs were the key to victory). They’ve struggled at home in all of their three games, and are 0-3 against the spread inside the dome. Offensive line problems are partially to blame. Combined with QB Cousins’ nagging ankle injury which limits his mobility, I can’t fathom laying points with the Falcons, especially to a team that continues to play well and get underestimated.

The trouble with betting Tampa Bay is injuries (reportedly), particularly to the WR corps and across the board on defense. I’m never quite sure how much weight to give to defensive injuries — as my fading the Bucs a few weeks ago in a similar situation on the road (at Detroit) was largely based on multiple injuries to the Bucs’ defensive backfield. I expected the Lions pass offense to have a field day. So, what happened? Tampa Bay held Detroit to 16 points and won outright! The Bucs also shut down the Eagles last Sunday, with much the same “problems” on their defense. Given this apparent disconnect between injuries and the logical consequences of being without key personnel, I’m not falling into that trap again. Just maybe, Tampa Bay’s backups are every bit as good as the starters.

Player props worth considering were some of the receiving-related options for the Bucs. Tampa Bay throws 60 percent of their offensive plays, so this team puts the ball in the air and most receivers get touches. With WR Evans listed as questionable, that gives WR Godwin extra targets–and he’s already caught 28 balls in 4 games. However, the numbers have shifted (O/U 6.5 receptions) and that’s just too high. Same thing goes for the Bucs’ TE. So, I’ve run into several dead ends on the player wagers.

The Bucs are tempting to play for the full game at plus points. That said, the better bet here looks to be Tampa Bay in the first half. The Bucs are getting +.5 (half point) and the elevated vig at -115 seems reasonable. TB is one of the NFL’s best first-half teams averaging 15 PPG. Atlanta is slightly above average, but take away those two fluke TDs in the Saints game last week, and Atlanta falls to about 8.5 PPG 1H. We can’t totally rely on small sample sizes but this disparity at a full TD per half shows better preparation for the Bucs and can’t be ignored.

Player Props: I also recommend looking at TB sacks props, to go OVER. With the Falcons’ porous OL and an immobile QB who isn’t at 100 pct., I look for the Bucs to blitz more often (they rank 5th in the NFL in blitz packages according to metrics I’ve seen). As of yet, I haven’t found a sack O/U, but anything at 2.5 or lower, I’ll bet the OVER (this wager will not be counted on record since I haven’t seen odds on this yet). Let’s also take a look at the longest FG O/U to go OVER 45.5 yards, assuming you can find 45.5. I’ve seen this range from 45-48, but won’t bet it at anything higher than 46. Atlanta’s Koo is one of the NFL’s most reliable long-range kickers and a game inside the dome likely increases attempts, especially since the Falcons’ offense has shown a tendency to move the ball pretty well, but stalls in the opposition side of the field. Bucs’ McLaughlin is also solid, having kicked a 57-yarder this season. Again, this is a lean–results not recorded here since I haven’t seen the numbers posted yet.

Another kicker prop that looks solid (which I have already bet and recorded here because the line is already up as of Wednesday morning) is “WILL BOTH TEAMS MAKE A SUCCESSFUL 33+ YARD FGS?” The *YES* is listed at -110. This looks like a bargain. First, these are two above average kickers playing inside a dome in a divisional game. Koo (Atlanta) is a perfect 9/9 on FGs this season. McLaughlin (Tampa Bay) is a perfect 7/7 on FGs this season. A 33-yard attempt means kicking from anywhere beyond the 16-yard line, which seems a reasonable expectation for both teams. I bet this at Westgate (Las Vegas).

Leans:
Team Prop Full Game: Tampa Bay OVER on sacks
Team Prop Full Game: Either Team to Make a 45.5+ yard FG – YES

Picks:
First-Half Side: Tampa Bay +.5 (-115)
Team Kicking Prop: Both Team to Make 33+ Yard FGs – YES (-110)

 

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THIS WEEK’S WAGERS–FINAL REPORT:
(for those who just want the picks)

First-Half Side: Tampa Bay +.5 (-115) … W
Team Kicking Prop: Both Team to Make 33+ Yard FGs – YES (-110) … W
Full Game Side: NY Giants +7 (-115)
Player Prop: NYG WR Robinson OVER receptions (TBD) … CANCEL THIS BET (line game out of O/U 6.5)
Full-Game Total: IND-JAX UNDER 46
First Quarter Side: New Orleans +.5 (-115)
First-Half Side: Dallas +1 vs. Pittsburgh