2024 NFL Analysis and Picks: Divisional Playoff Round
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2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 138
LOSSES — 127
PUSH — 4
NET WIN/LOSS — – $955
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 7-10-0 (- $480)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL; $9,045.
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ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 19):
Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 19 REPORT HERE
Full-Game Side: Houston +3 (-115)…{W}
First-Half Side: Houston +1.5 (-115)…{W}
Full-Game Team Total: Houston OVER 19.5 points (-130)…{W}
Player Prop: LAC QB Herbert OVER 20.5 pass completions…{L}
Player Prop: LAC QB Herbert OVER 31.5 pass attempts…{W}
Player Prop: LAC QB Herbert UNDER 20.5 rushing yards…{W}
Full-Game Side: Pittsburgh +9.5…{L}
Full-Game Team Total: Pittsburgh OVER 16.5 points (-115)…{L}
Player Prop: PIT K Boswell OVER 6.5 points (-115)…{L}
Full-Game Team Total: Denver OVER 19.5 (-115)…{L}
Player Prop: DEN QB Nix OVER 1.5 TD passes (+130)…{L}
Full-Game Side: Tampa Bay -3…{L}
Moneyline: Tampa Bay (-160)…{L}
Full-Game Total: OVER 50…{L}
Full-Game Side: LA Rams +2.5 (-105)…{W}
First-Half Side: LA Rams +1.5 (-120)…{W}
Player Prop: MIN QB Darnold UNDER 23.5 pass completions (-115)…{L}
IMPORTANT NOTE:
Be sure and visit BETCOIN CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week.
ANALYSIS AND PICKS FOR NFL PLAYOFFS (DIVISIONAL ROUND):
— HOUSTON at KANSAS CITY —
This appears to be a matchup of the best and worst teams remaining in the playoffs. I’m giving Kansas City the distinction as the “best” team, because as two-time reigning Super Bowl champs, until they’re de-throwned, they deserve that recognition. As for Houston, a 10-7 W-L record in this NFL’s worst division along with a dead-even 372 (scored) to 372 (allowed) points tally is evidence of mediocrity. The Chiefs, who are favored by -8.5 appears to be more than justified. In fact, I can see this line moving to -10 given public perceptions of the two teams. Not saying it will move to -10, but it should.
Kansas City enjoys advantages in every conceivable category. The Chiefs are rested (off a bye week). Actually, they’ve had two weeks to prepare as the final game was mostly with backups. HC Reid is a staggering 28-3 coming off a bye, which shows extraordinary preparation for the following game. KC is 8-0 SU at home this season. And, of course, the Chiefs enjoy a massive edge in big game experience.
January weather would normally be a neutralizer (translation — edge to the underdog). However, the Chiefs have a long history of not just playing well, but winning in adverse conditions. Contrast this proven experience with Houston, which has never played a big game in frigid weather. The Saturday forecast calls for temperature around 20 degrees, slight chance of snow, and some wind. Give me weather-tough teams against domers anytime.
Only four weeks ago, Kansas City defeated Houston on this same field 27-19. The game was closer than that score indicates. The Chiefs covered a low spread, but might have lost outright were it not for a key HOU WR injury in the second half which deflated the entire team. Playing well in Kansas City previously could give the Texans a boost of confidence. However, I also see that close game as a wake up call to Kansas City, which knows they can’t take any team lightly, especially after so many previous tight games this season, including some lucky wins. I also expect the Chiefs to not only outplay the Texans, but the edge in coaching to show here.
Credit HOU QB Stroud for a solid game last week against a good defense. That said, he’s not in the same league as KC QB Mahomes, especially come playoff time. Mahomes’ 15-3 SU career playoff record stands near the best of all time.
Defensively, Kansas City was the 4th best team in the NFL in points allowed and 6th best in yardage allowed (and that includes a meaningless 0-38 blowout loss in the final game of the season when most starters rested). Houston played a lot of cream-puffs on its schedule and yet ranked very mediocre in most defensive categories. As for their offense, the Texans were 19th in scoring and 22nd in YPG. That’s below average.
It’s extremely rare to see a public team like Kansas City listed as a bargain in betting markets, but I think this line should be -10. So long as it stays lower than that, the Chiefs will get my money. I’ll add a wager on the Chiefs moneyline (to just win the game). These bridge-jumper lay prices can be dangerous, but sometimes the disparity between teams is so one-sided, the investment price is warranted–and I think it is warranted at -455.
Somewhat correlated to a good day by Kansas City, I’m wagering that Patrick Mahomes will NOT throw an interception. I was shocked to see this player prop number not juiced up, perhaps to at least -150 (that’s where I’d list it). First, Mahomes is likely to be ahead later in the game, which means fewer throws. We always want the team that doesn’t have to throw desperation passes late when it comes to prop betting on interceptions. Moreover, Mahomes recent form as a passer is stellar. Fact: Mahomes hasn’t thrown an int. since Nov. 17, which was their loss at Buffalo. That’s SIX GAMES (and 226 pass attempts) in which Mahomes hasn’t tossed a pick. So, seeing the “NO” side of this prop at only -115 vig strikes me as perhaps the best player prop in this matchup. Given Mahomes’ accuracy, especially in big games, I’m glad to take the “NO” here. Note: Be warned that “interception” props can be very volatile–all it takes is a tipped ball or other freak play to lose.
A final thought: Contrarianism in NFL betting can be profitable, when applied to the right situations. This is not such a situation. In poker, we used to call the trap of out-thinking the obvious decision as “fancy play syndrome.” Sometimes, the optimal decision can be very straightforward and all the evidence is clear and points in just one direction (to one team). That’s the synopsis for this game, which Kansas City should win, likely by a double digit margin.
Prediction: Kansas City 30, Houston 16
Picks:
Full-Game Side: Kansas City -8.5
Moneyline: Kansas City (-455)
Player Prop: KC QB Mahomes will throw an interception–NO (-115)
Note: The three other playoff games are up–click links to read full report.
FINAL PICKS:
Full-Game Side: Kansas City -8.5
Moneyline: Kansas City (-455)
Player Prop: KC QB Mahomes will throw an interception–NO (-115)
Full-Game Side: Washington +9
Game Prop: Washington to score first and win the game (+650)
Player Prop: DET RB Gibbs OVER 24.5 receiving yards (-120)
Player Prop: WAS QB Daniels OVER 232.5 passing yards (-115)
Full-Game Total: LAR-PHI UNDER 44
Player Prop: LAR QB Stafford to throw an interception–YES (-125)
Player Prop: LAR WR Nacua UNDER 2.5 rushing yards (-120)
First-Half Total: BAL-BUF UNDER 24.5
Full-Game Total: BAL-BUF UNDER 51.5
Player Prop: BAL RB Henry OVER 19.5 rushing attempts (-120)
Player Prop: BAL RB Henry OVER 110 rushing yards (+143)
