2014 Academy Awards — My Predictions and Preferences

 

 

I’ve watched every Academy Awards night presentation since 1972.  Haven’t missed a year since.  Tonight, the streak stays alive.

Here are my picks and preferences for each of the major categories:

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Sally Hawkins in “Blue Jasmine”
Jennifer Lawrence in “American Hustle”
Lupita Nyong’o in “12 Years a Slave”
Julia Roberts in “August: Osage County”
June Squibb in “Nebraska”

WHO WILL WIN — Lupita Nyong’o should win this easy for her powerful performance in “12 Years a Slave.”  There’s also some buzz that reigning “Best Actress” superstar Jennifer Lawrence could win her second Oscar for “American Hustle.”  But I suspect many voters will lean towards a newcomer in her breakout performance, proven by her earlier wins this year at SAG and CSA.  The other nominees in this category are also-rans and have no shot.

WHO SHOULD WIN — Nyong’o should win.  For those who don’t know her name, she’s a remarkable young actress, who initially earned a film degree in college, then entered the business by working on production crews of several major films.  She also wrote and directed some award-winning documentaries and even an MTV music video.  As more people have learned of her considerable talents, that should propel her to a sweet victory in this category, leading to what could be an extraordinary career in movies.  Watch this remarkable young actress.  She’s going to be around for a long time.  We hope.

 

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Barkhad Abdi in “Captain Phillips”
Bradley Cooper in “American Hustle”
Michael Fassbender in “12 Years a Slave”
Jonah Hill in “The Wolf of Wall Street”
Jared Leto in “Dallas Buyers Club”

WHO WILL WIN — Jared Leto looks to be the clear favorite for his sympathetic portrayal as the transgender woman who plays a pivotal role in “Dallas Buyer’s Club.”  Leto already won Golden Globe and SAG awards, which probably means he’ll be up on the stage early in the show making his acceptance speech.  Let’s hope Leto takes this moment a little more seriously than his previous appearances when he reduced the serious subject matter to a few cheap jokes.

WHO SHOULD WIN — Barkhad Abdi was phenomenal as the badass Somali pirate in “Captain Phillips.”  He had us thoroughly convinced he was a beast, who then gradually becomes a far more complex and interesting character as the story unfolds and we learn more about what causes piracy.  Jonah Hill was also marvelous in the way over-the-top meltdown farce, “The Wolf of Wall Street.”  Either of these two actors would be my pick.

 

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Amy Adams in “American Hustle”
Cate Blanchett in “Blue Jasmine”
Sandra Bullock in “Gravity”
Judi Dench in “Philomena”
Meryl Streep in “August: Osage County”

WHO WILL WIN — This is the night’s easiest winner to predict.  Cate Blanchett is all but assured of winning another Oscar, for what’s undoubtedly the year’s best performance by an actress in a film.  She’s already taken home the three major preliminary awards for her role in “Blue Jasmine.”  For her not to win would be a monumental upset.  However, an interesting side note is the Woody Allen controversy.  While few voters would likely punish Blanchett for Allen’s (alleged) dirty deeds, some could throw their votes elsewhere so as not to appear endorsing Allen, the iconic writer, and director who has created yet another terrific female character in film.  For this reason, Amy Adams, who has given us some outstanding performances in recent years but has never won an Oscar, could be the longshot darkhorse.

WHO SHOULD WIN — Sandra Bullock, Judi Dench, and Meryl Streep were all very good in their respective films.  Amy Adams was great in “American Hustle.”  However, Cate Blanchett gave one of those rare performances which come along only so often which is filled with humor, pain, and inner-angst.  She dominates and carries the film from start to finish.  This should be a lock for Blanchett.

 

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Christian Bale in “American Hustle”
Bruce Dern in “Nebraska”
Leonardo DiCaprio in “The Wolf of Wall Street”
Chiwetel Ejiofor in “12 Years a Slave”
Matthew McConaughey in “Dallas Buyers Club”

WHO WILL WIN — This is arguably the most loaded category of all in this year’s Oscar race, containing five actors who could all win, and with good reason.  Matthew McConaughey probably gets the nod, although I’m not a fan of either him or his work.  He’s a second-rate actor who’s made a lot of bad movies and doesn’t belong in any discussion with “Best Actor” as the subject.  That said, his dramatic weight loss — dropping to a dangerously alarming 135 pounds — in order to play the challenging role of an AIDS patient is way too powerful to ignore.  He was also perfectly typecast for a part, playing a stereotypical Texan who’s forced to confront the terrifying health crisis known as AIDS during the early 1980s.  Once again, let’s hope McConaughey is up to the task if he wins and is able to leave his self-absorbed ego and rambling excesses offstage while giving his acceptance speech.

WHO SHOULD WIN — I can’t argue with any nominees.  They’re all special and memorable in their own way.  Bale is astonishing for his broad range of characters (do a YouTube search on him sometimes).  Now, that’s an actor.  His performance as the endearing con man in “American Hustle” was spot-on perfect.  However, I’d give my vote to Leonardo DiCaprio for his powerful performance as the rich slimeball in “The Wolf of Wall Street.”  His performance was a major breakthrough for me as a movie viewer.  Until this film, I’d never seen any talent whatsoever in any of DiCaprio’s previous roles.  But this time, he bit into Wall Street culture, chewed it up, and spit it out all over the audience in a mesmerizing carnage of excessive personality and profanity.  He deserves the Oscar in what’s been a highly-competitive year for actors.

 

BEST DIRECTOR

“American Hustle” David O. Russell
“Gravity” Alfonso Cuarón
“Nebraska” Alexander Payne
“12 Years a Slave” Steve McQueen
“The Wolf of Wall Street” Martin Scorsese

WHO WILL WIN — I see this as a two-horse race between Alfonso Cuaron and Steve McQueen.  Cuaron is probably a slight favorite, but there’s lots of appreciation for what McQueen did with “12 Years a Slave.”  Russell is a darkhorse contender and could get some votes as well, while Payne and Scorcese have virtually no shot.

WHO SHOULD WIN — I’m comfortable with any of these three directors winning — David O. Russell, Alfonse Cuaron, or Steve McQueen.  However, my nod goes to Cuaron for directing what is a technological and visual masterpiece.  I’m normally not a fan of special effects-based movies, but the imagery in “Gravity” was so intense, it’s impossible to ignore and not celebrate with an award for film direction.  Accordingly, Cuaron who also directed the much-underrated and lesser-seen “Children of Men” and is known for performing miracles with the camera, rightly deserves the Oscar.  This is one category where I am rooting strongly for a nominee because Cuaron’s career body of work is truly phenomenal and should be recognized with the industry’s highest achievement.

 

BEST PICTURE

“American Hustle”
“Captain Phillips”
“Dallas Buyers Club”
“Gravity”
“Her”
“Nebraska”
“Philomena”
“12 Years a Slave”
“The Wolf of Wall Street”

WHO WILL WIN — “12 Years a Slave” seems to have the most momentum right now.  The historical epic is just the right movie to win in a category that’s gone to heavier, more serious films in recent years.  “The Hurt Locker” showed us a few years ago that big box office numbers aren’t needed to win, which means “12 Years a Slave” is likely the favorite even though it hasn’t created a financial splash.  All other films in this category are very good but are also flawed in some way — except for this movie which is based on a true story.

WHO SHOULD WIN — Hard to argue with “12 Years a Slave,” but my lean would be to either “American Hustle” or “Her.”  I believe movies chosen for Best Picture should make some kind of statement.  For this reason, my vote would go to “Her” based on its insightful and highly-unusual premise about what interpersonal relationships might be like in the not too distant future.