The Volatility of Collecting Things
THE VOLATILITY OF COLLECTING THINGS
AN UNCONVENTIONAL CONVENTION — EDITION 216
I know next to nothing about collecting things. This goes for art, antiques, or anything else people like to accumulate and then show off. So, this is an attempt on my part to learn more.
When assessing the value of something, especially something deemed “collectible,” the primary factors that influence price are scarcity, condition, and perception. Scarcity and condition are easy to understand and apply, Perception, on the other hand, is something else. It’s difficult to predict how collectors (and the public) might perceive an item many years or decades from now. This brings me to the two questions posed to readers, as follows:
– What collectibles/antiques/items are almost certain to INCREASE in value?
– What collectibles/antiques/items are almost certain to DECREASE in value?
This discussion was prompted by a curious exchange I saw on the British version of “Antiques Roadshow” recently I rarely watch the program, but then I came across some really interesting items relating to pop culture, which were featured on the show. The antiquities expert noted that some once highly sought-after collectibles are declining in value, while other rare items are soaring in value. Nothing specific about the items had changed. Only our perceptions about the collectibles changes.
Purely by coincidence, there’s an auction house in England that I clicked on a few days ago. They regularly sell off pop culture collectibles, especially anything related to movies, music, art, and entertainment. A canceled check signed by Bill Wyman in 1966 (of the Rolling Stones) has a starting bid of $2.500. A few scribbled pages of script with corrections penned by Orson Wells (in horrible condition) goes for a starting bid of $7,200. A lithograph in a series of 100 signed by Andy Warhol is at $6,000. A lithograph! Ebay has items like this, too. Consider the Peter Max art prices, which are soaring. Note: This same painting was on auction in Las Vegas about ten years ago, and it didn’t even reach the $17,000 reserve price (Marieta and I were invited to a fancy art auction, and I had to attend). Now, they want $55,000 for it. Why? Peter Max (who is still alive and has dementia) has painted the Statue of Liberty so many times, *she* should be getting a cut.
But what happens 20, 30, 40, or 50 years from now? What about 100 years from now? Will anyone care about Bill Wyman’s autograph? Will anyone care about Orson Wells? Or, will those items gradually turn into Rudolf Vanentino’s musty house slippers? In other words, one of the most popular stars in the world in the 1920s is nearly obscure nowadays. That might not be the best example, but hopefully, you get the point.
Should we all be hoarding anything signed or touched or worn by Taylor Swift? Should aficionadas of Bob Dylan albums sell their collections now, because once those fans are deceased, future generations won’t value them as much? Will Star Wars stuff always be in demand? What about Marvel comic books, or an old O.J. Simpson trophy? Is anyone going to care about John Wayne in the year 2050?
I’m open to anything readers want to share, including opinions. There’s no wrong speculation here, assuming you can articulate the reason(s) a collectible might go significantly up or down in value.
Then again, sometimes just collecting things we enjoy can be fun. And there’s no price tag on that.
Join the discussion on Facebook HERE:
