Betting on the NFL Preseason

One of the easiest ways to know if an NFL handicapper understands the fundamentals of football wagering is to ask his opinion of betting on preseason games.

Anyone who insists the preseason is either “unplayable” or “unbeatable” should be dismissed instantly as someone who doesn’t know what he’s talking about.

Such opinion reveals a fundamental lack of understanding about the most important aspects of football handicapping — which are coaching philosophy, quarterbacking, roster depth, and motivation.  Injuries also merit a mention but aren’t usually a key factor until the regular season.

In fact, preseason games — played in August and early September during the first four to five weeks of the season — can sometimes be far more predictable than their regular season counterparts.  That’s because coaching staffs often reveal their entire game plan (even to the media) before the game starts.  Some coaches take the preseason seriously.  In other words, certain teams play to win.  Other teams and coaching staffs use these so-called “meaningless” games (a real misnomer — they’re hardly meaningless to those of us who wager on them) solely as a testing ground for new players, schemes, and plays.  Many coaches couldn’t care less which team win or loses, so long as they get a solid look at their depth chart.

Put another way, how big an edge would you enjoy if you knew in advance that one team was determined to win the game, while the other was content to give lots of time to backups?  Certainly, every team during the regular season is determined to win.  But that’s not the case during the exhibition schedule.  Using a couple of notable examples, legendary head coach Vince Lombardi posted a remarkable 42-8 win-loss record in the preseason which, no surprise, ranks as the best of all-time percentage-wise.  Those impressive numbers are likely the byproduct of Lombardi’s fierce coaching style since he drove his teams to win all the time.  Meanwhile, just to show that winning in the preseason doesn’t mean very much, the NFL’s worst team of all time (record-wise) was the 2008 Detroit Lions.  They went 0-16 during the regular season, somehow managed to go 4-0 in preseason games that year.

Moreover, each particular week of the preseason is defined by its own set of unique characteristics.  Starters play either very little or not at all, during the first week (including this weekend since it’s the first occasion that all NFL teams are scheduled).  The second week includes perhaps a full quarter of action by the starters.  The third game is typically the only real test, better known as the season warm-up since starters often play into the second half (and sometimes three full quarters).  The final week is much like the first game, as starters tend to get rested as back-ups and scrubs take the majority of snaps.  Knowing the relative strengths of rosters, especially the role of back-up quarterbacks and the depth of talent surrounding them, provides countless betting opportunities — on such things as game totals, second-half wagers, and other game props.

Speaking of game totals and second halves, preseason games are vastly more predictable than contests played in the regular season.  We often see teams going through the motions, running plays into the middle of the defensive line, seemingly wanting to get the game over with and leave town with no injuries.  While many regular-season games have wild finishes, crazy comebacks, and trash touchdowns, we see this less often in the preseason.  It’s tough to stage a wild comeback with a team full of third-stringers running complex offensive schemes, even against inexperienced defensive starters.  In other words, defenses are usually way ahead of offenses when it comes to inexperienced players on the field.  This plays well into betting lots of unders, which is why we often see totals deflated by several points in these games.

One of the surest ways to recognize that preseason games aren’t just beatable, but potentially quite lucrative for smart bettors is to examine the limits imposed on betting these games by all Nevada sportsbooks and major offshore operators.  While regular-season games often attract ten figures or more in a single wager, it’s rare to see preseason games with limits of more than $1,000 (most bettors I know have a $500 cap on these games).  So, if the preseason is really an unpredictable roll of the dice as critics suggest, why would all the Nevada sportsbooks and offshore operators set down strict betting limits?  Answer:  Because they know these games are very exploitable, and often quite beatable, provided a bettor knows what’s going on, line shops for value, and then pounces when a number seemingly out of whack.  One hint:  Contrarians love the preseason.  We thrive on fading popular perceptions about teams and players.

I understand why some serious football handicappers choose to skip the preseason.  There are indeed valid reasons why discipline football bettors may want to wait until more information is available.  This is especially true for data-based handicapping, which mostly involves statistics.  Since there are no real meaningful stats to speak of in the preseason, these handicappers would be well advised to wait until the regular season begins.

That said, don’t believe for a second that preseason games are not beatable.  Anyone who says otherwise isn’t just uninformed.  More than likely, that outdated close-mindedness reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of line values juxtaposed against some teams and players who are clearly more motivated to win than others.

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