NOTE:
TO READ THE FULL WEEK’S REPORT WITH ALL GAMES AND PICKS, CLICK HERE
UPDATE — MY CONTEST PICKS (ENTERED SATURDAY AFTERNOON:
GOLDEN NUGGET LINES / PICKS — WEEK 1
TICKET 1:
OK ST -7.5
OLD DOMIN +2.5
SJOSE ST +6.5
MISS ST +6.5
SO CARL +10
LOUVL -28
ILL +5.5TICKET 2:
OK ST -7.5
OLD DOMIN +2.5
SJOSE ST +6.5
MISS ST +6.5
SO CARL +10
FL INTL +6.5
ILL +5.5TICKET 3:
OK ST -7.5
OLD DOMIN +2.5
SJOSE ST +6.5
MISS ST +6.5
CAL +13
VA +2
UL MONROE +13
CIRCA MILLIONS LINES / PICKS — WEEK 1
WESTAGE SUPERCONTEST LINES / PICKS — WEEK 1
______________________
2024 NFL GAME WRITE UPS AND PICKS: WEEK 1
ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL….HANDICAPPING?
The 2024 NFL regular season kicks off this Thursday night.
It seems everybody has an opinion on NFL games and betting, nowadays. I’m no different.
As has been the case for the past 12 years, I’ll post my weekly write ups and picks. Everything here will always remain free and easy for public access — with my opinions and picks only a quick click away.
I also believe in providing complete transparency to my fellow gamblers. Accordingly, I’ll keep a running count on my wins and losses as the season progresses.
MY NFL BETTING RECORD:
I’ve been very fortunate these past dozen years. I’ve ended up with 9 winning seasons. I suffered 3 losing seasons. One NFL season (2015) was disastrous, and due to my mistakes and mismanagement I went broke. Like I said, I believe in 100 percent transparency. Any serious sports gambler who tells you they always win – is lying. We all have downswings.
Indeed, be warned: I make lots of mistakes. But truth be told, I’m also coming off my most lucrative season ever, financially speaking (2023). See the links below which provide evidence.
Or, just lick here and read this article from earlier this year: 2023 Las Vegas Westgate SuperContest
Las Vegas resident Nolan Dalla….tied for second place in the SuperContest at 58-30-2 ATS for $57,692.50. Dalla, the former World Series of Poker Media Director, won a total of $190,180.35 in the SuperContest. He had two other entries that finished fifth and tied for sixth, and he won the in-season contests for Weeks 10-12 (13-2, $25,000) and Weeks 10-18 (33-11-1, $75,000).
In my weekly write ups, I typically begin my public picks each season with a hypothetical $10,000 bankroll and then wager weekly from those funds. Oh, and the answer to your next question is “yes” — I do bet these picks myself (and more, as second halves and live betting isn’t recorded).
Here are some links to my past years, records, and write ups. Everything I’ve posted remains archived and posted. There are hundreds of weekly NFL reports and write ups at my site dating all the way back to 2012 (see links below). I also have several videos, some of which (if I can brag a bit) are pretty wild and entertaining.
READ — 10 Years of NFL Predictions and Picks: My Updated Record
READ – Could I Win the NFL SuperContest? (yes, with lots of luck)
READ – Who Am I and Why Am I Here?
WATCH – A Disastrous Betting Week – A Wild 20 Minute NFL Rant
WATCH – Gambler Goes Ballistic Over Atlanta Super Bowl Meltdown (my most infamous video)
The lines and totals and odds on props you will see here are based on what I find available at sportsbooks here in Las Vegas. If there’s an outlier number someplace, I’ll note it in my report. This is especially helpful for prop bettors. The menu and odds vary widely by casino sportsbook (especially if you have access to online betting) which means there’s truth to the old adage and song lyric: “You better shop around.”
However, loyal readers and followers should be aware of some new developments. I’ll be doing things differently this season which now deserves an explanation.
WHAT TO EXPECT:
Readers can expect the bulk of NFL game analysis and picks — mostly those games played on Sunday and Monday — to appear each Saturday morning. The write ups will be posted over the next 22 weeks ( from now through the Super Bowl). Sometimes, I’ll post the Thursday and Saturday game write ups earlier in the week. This will vary according to the early match ups, and my own schedule.
On my home webpage (https://www.nolandalla.com/), you’ll see the write ups for key games. However, the comprehensive overview for all NFL games with my analysis and picks will be shared exclusively at BetCoin.ag.
YOU MAY WANT TO BOOKMARK THAT LINK HERE [CLICK]
I’m pleased to report that I’ve entered into a partnership agreement with them and look forward to the much wider global distribution and access they can provide. Of course, all of this information and opinion is always free and easy to find. Links will be posted each week, along with the usual game write ups.
On Saturday nights, I’ll also add my weekly contest picks in several Las Vegas NFL handicapping competitions where I (and an investment syndicate) have entered. These picks will only appear after the contest has been closed for that week. I must do this for security and so competitors can’t take advantage of information on our picks. Last season, my $10,000 investment in two Las Vegas handicapping contests netted a whopping $180,180 in profit. I can’t make any promises about what might happen in 2024, but I feel confident heading into a new season.
Along with the syndicate, I’ve entered the following contests:
- Westgate SuperContest
- Westgate Second-Half Reboot Contest
- Circa Million
- Circa Survivor
- Golden Nugget Ultimate Football Challenge
[The total number of entries amounts to a $20,000 investment.]
If you really want to follow along in real time, check out my NFL Betting Syndicate group and page on Facebook. CLICK HERE
WEEK 1 – KEY BETTING ANGLE:
In most NFL games this opening week, I’ll be wagering on the first half UNDERs. I don’t believe linesmakers (or the betting public) have compensated nearly enough for the unique set of circumstances of the seasonal kickoff games.
Also, the key word here is most. Much will depend on the actual numbers, usually centered around 23 and 24. A half point here or there is huge when betting the first half.
Most teams will opt for conservative game plans in the first half. Defenses are usually ahead of offenses early in the season.
Let’s also note that one-third of all NFL teams will be starting a new quarterback in this first game. Trades, draft choices, and free-agent signings shake-up team rosters and it usually takes some time for offenses to put things together. When we add in the number of new head coaches and offensive coordinators, nearly one-half of the entire NFL will feature the debut of a new head coach, offensive coordinator, or starting quarterback. Some teams have multiple newcomers in all three jobs.
As for recent results, first-half UNDERs finished up at 10-6 last season (2023). They also went 10-6 the year before (2022). Combined, that’s 20 UNDERs and 12 OVERs. I’ll take those percentages anytime and hope for a repeat.
This compels me to make several first half wagers (UNDERs), which will be noted in each game writeup.
*****************************************************
2024 NFL WAGERING RECORD
0 — Wins
0 — Losses
0 — Pushes
Starting Bankroll: $10,000.
Current Bankroll: $10,000.
Net Gain/Loss: + / – 0
Last Week: NA wins – NA losses (+ NA.)*****************************************************
WEEK 1: GAME WRITE UPS AND PICKS:
BALTIMORE at KANSAS CITY (THU)
Spread: Chiefs -3 (even)
Moneyline: Chiefs -155 / Ravens +130
Total: 48.5
Can the NFL just go ahead and schedule the regular season opener in Kansas City every single year? No city or fan base is more perfect for the regular season debut, and the Chiefs always seem to deliver an exciting game. This season, Kansas City hopes to make NFL history and three-peat. However, the Ravens are one of their major obstacles. These are arguably the best two teams in football, so it’s the ideal kickoff game.
ANALYSIS
- I rode the Kansas City Super Bowl express carrying extra baggage on three straight wagers during last year’s playoffs. That streak included taking the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game versus the Ravens. Now, I think this is the time to jump on the other side and bet Baltimore, taking the sweet points at +3. In any late season or playoff matchup, I’d certainly lean towards the favorite, especially playing at home, where the Chiefs often seem infallible. Yet, I’m not as convinced Kansas City comes into this game and debuts with quite as much to prove as Baltimore, which was stung by the Chiefs in that 17-10 championship game loss in which they were both outplayed as well as outcoached.
- Of course, motivation isn’t an issue in NFL openers, especially between two Super Bowl contenders. Rising to the occasion has never been a problem for Andy Reid-coached teams and the Chiefs have delivered in the past—though they did lose their season opener last season hosting Detroit. Nonetheless, Reid is an impressive 7-4 ATS and 9-2 SU in season openers during his reign in Kansas City. That said, Baltimore is an rqual match in team preparedness. The Ravens typically come into the regular season well prepared under John Harbaugh, evidenced by their historic preseason undefeated streak that lasted several years. Most analysts cited a carryover effect from their winning habits in preseason, and it’s tough to argue with the Ravens’ early season success.
- Are there reasons to take Kansas City and lay the points? Sure. Since 2000, Super Bowl champs are 14-10 ATS in Week 1 of the following season. QB Mahomes has also been a winning bet in Weeks 1, going 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS for his career. However, Mahomes’ record in September isn’t quite as impressive, at 11-8 ATS, which tells us that bettors have to pay a premium laying points anytime it’s tied to Reid-Mahomes-Chiefs.
- A standout trend worth considering (that few bettors have latched onto, apparently) is QB Jackson’s astonishing ATS record leading the Ravens when it comes to first half betting/covering. Let me credit Action Network here for publishing the research: Last season, Jackson’s Ravens were 13-5 ATS on the first-half line over the course of the full season. Overall for his career, Jackson is a staggering 51-30-2 1H ATS. This remarkable stat makes him the best QB 1H ATS in the last 20 seasons consisting of 257 starting QBs. Even more surprising, I’ve seen no evidence of line adjustment that accounts for this outlier data on Jackson and the Ravens as first half betting beasts. My take–I think we can ascribe this first-half success to excellent preparedness, good coaching, and perhaps Jackson’s unique skill set which are probably fresher in the first half of games. That’s just my theory, but there’s enough here to ride the trend supported by strong data and bet it this week.
- I’m also considering a wager many of the NFL first halves to go UNDER in Week 1. This total is 23.5, which gives us a win across a key number in 1H totals–which is 23. There’s exra vig, but it’s worth it to catch a win on 13-10 (and multiples thereof), which are common halftime scores.
- One prop looks enticing — betting OVER on the longest field goal of the game. The prop applies to kickers of both teams. The O/U on yards is 46.5. This means we need one successful FG of 47 yards or longer to win. Kansas City and Baltimore field two of the NFL’s best kickers, with strong legs. Coaches will routinely attempt 50+ yarders with either kicker. Last season, these two teams combined for 65 field goals on 72 attempts, averaging about 3.5 successful FGs per game. We also have two excellent offenses that move the ball well and should get to midfield often. In a close high-profile game, field goals could come into play more than usual. Also note this prop is usually lined at 45.5 to 46.5 which means no adjustment has been made for the matchup or the excellent kickers, who most would agree are top-5 in the league, and arguably 1-2 in the NFL. OVER 46.5 with a little extra juice probably has some value.
- Intangibles: Both teams lost a few starters, mostly on defense. The Ravens lost their DC (Macdonald) who took the Seattle head coaching job–which could be a concern. I’m not sure how much positive weight to give Baltimore which acquired RB Henry from Tennessee in the offseason. I’m lukewarm on Henry (age is a concern and he’s been lackluster big games in recent seasons), but he also might have a little extra to give in this debut with the Ravens. Assuming he’s anywhere near his prior peak with the Titans, Baltimore would have a formidable duel-threat rushing attack with that speed and power backfield. Will this produce immediate results? I’m uncertain–but Henry might be a tipping point in the Ravens’ favor. Henry in the backfield also helps that first half UNDER, as he certain to get his share of carries, keeping the clock moving.
- Counterargument: We’re betting against Kansas City here, a bonafide dynasty in the making. Enough said.
PICKS:
Full Game — Baltimore +3 (-120) ….. Risking $120 to win $100
First Half — Baltimore +1.5 (-120) ….. Risking $120 to win $100
First Half — UNDER 23.5 (-120) ….. Risking $120 to win $100
Prop — Longest Field Goal (Either Team) OVER 46.5 yards (-115) ….. Risking $115 to win $100
GREEN BAY vs. PHILADELPHIA (FRI-SAO PAULO)
Spread: Eagles -2.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Eagles -136 / Packers +120
Total: 48.5
Here’s an unusual matchup of two playoff teams that were headed in completely opposite directions at the end of last season. The wrinkle is the location, since the game site is in South America. The game line is puzzling (Eagles -2.5) since there’s lots of evidence the wrong team might be favored.
ANALYSIS:
- This would be a very tough matchup under normal mid-season conditions. Add the uncertainties of this game being the first ever to be played in the nation of Brazil and handicapping might as well come with a pair of dice and a blindfold. Aside from one wager I’m making — based strictly on an angle — there’s nothing about this matchup I like. So, this rates as a pass for me, though there are some compelling factors worth sharing.
- Green Bay was a 9-8 team last season, but by January was clearly a much better lineup than the wingless Eagles. Green Bay won its Wild Card road game against Dallas and very nearly upset San Francisco in the Division Round. Meanwhile, Philadelphia appeared to be the NFL’s best team at midseason, riding high on a 10-1 record. Then, the Eagles mysteriously hit the skids and went 1-5 the rest of the way, including a shocking defeat in the playoffs versus mediocre Tampa Bay. It sure looks like Green Bay should be favored here.
- Head Coach LaFleur is 22-10 ATS as an underdog with the Packers. He’s also 13-2 ATS in the first three weeks of the regular season (kudos Eric Schneller for the tip). That’s another reason to like Green Bay plus the points.
- Eagles QB Hurts was burdened with injuries last season (which was poor statistically 23/15 TD/INT ratio). Hurts really hurt his team with badly-timed mistakes (I had to do that). I’m also unconvinced that Packers QB Love deserved the mega-contract he signed in the offseason–we’ll see how that turns out. Hurts is probably a top-5 all-purpose QB when he’s healthy. I’m not sure Love is in the top-half of the league, even though he cashed a huge paycheck. The point is, I don’t trust either offense for very different reasons. Also, keep in mind the Center position is one of the most underrated in pro football, and Eagles’ C Kelce retired. His replacement has played just 45 snaps in his entire career. Again, this is more uncertainty. Another thing that should scare bettors away from the Eagles, who are riding a 7-game non-cover streak dating back to last season is Hurts wide disparity of performances at home versus away. The Eagles’ starter is an impressive 18-9 ATS in Philadelphia but only 10-18-1 ATS away, which ranks as the worst QB in the league since 2020. Bad hotel rooms? Lousy food? Do we really want to bet Hurts and the Eagles after a flight to Sao Paulo?
- So, given some positive factors that appear to favor Green Bay, why did the line open at Philadelphia -1.5 and then move to -2.5? Is this a case of reverse line movement begging for money to come in on the Packers? I don’t know, but the fact this game is being played under unprecedented conditions and added in some distractions with local issues and politics in Brazil, we don’t know how the game will play out. I’m also wary about field conditions in these foreign stadiums, which have sometimes added to the unpredictability.
- I’m betting the first half UNDER angle, which is 23.5 (-105). The game total dropped from 51 to 48.5. I wish I’d acted on 24 assuming it was available early, but that might have been tough to get that early number.
- Counterargument: Many factors point to taking Green Bay in the first half, game line, and perhaps even the moneyline which is generously listed at +130. Reverse line move (money coming in on Philadelphia) seems baseless and shouldn’t influence a preponderance of evidence that the Packers are the right side in this matchup.
PICKS:
First Half — UNDER 23.5 (-105) ….. Risking $105 to win $100
NOTE: Check back for more game writeup and picks. As of Friday afternoon, about HALF of the NFL games this week have been posted up to the link below:
MOST PICKS ON THE SUNDAY/MONDAY NFL GAMES WILL APPEAR HERE (CLICK LINK)