NOTE:
TO READ THIS WEEK’S FULL REPORT WITH GAME ANALYSIS AND PICKS….
WEEK 2 BETTING CONCEPT: TIMING IS EVERYTHING
Most bettors think of “futures” as bets made prior to the season starting. However, in many cases and at most sites, bettors can wager on a futures prospect at any time, even after the season starts.
I never thought much about the value of “timing” a futures bet (emphasis mine — on “timing”). Most bettors place a bet when it’s convenient and then ride out the wager for the rest of the season.
Enter Denny Axel into the discussion.
Denny and I go back 30 years. I say this with 100 percent sincerity when I write Denny is the best futures handicapper I’ve ever seen and have ever known. I won’t get into it here. But he’s a longterm winner. And, his analysis is so on the mark and out of the mainstream that it makes perfect since to coattail his plays. Many seasons, I’ve had a phone in my hand walking through a casino and got a tip from Denny and ran to the betting window and made a wager. Don’t worry, I’m not selling anything here and Denny isn’t a tout. He’s just a great futures capper.
Case in point: Denny shared this on Thursday. I’ll let the test speak for itself:
Okay, it’s time for my 1st futures bet for this NFL season and I like it a lot. Go ahead and bet $1000 on the Ravens to win their division at +120. A win here will return $2200. At this point in time it looks to me to be the best bet out there. I was gonna tout this last week before they played KC, but I figured they would lose that game and we could then get a better number this week. They got that game out of the way and didn’t lose too much ground in their division. The other 3 teams in their division will each have to play KC later on. I’m actually a little surprised we didn’t have to lay -110 or -120. I think we will probably have at least a half dozen of these kind of bets by the end of the year and then we can tally things up and hopefully have another successful season. For those of you that are going to do this, I would advise doing it before their next game, as the Ravens will probably beat the raiders pretty handle and that +120 could go to -120 or even worse. As stated before, time is always of the essence when it comes to futures bets. The Ravens look to me to easily be the class of this division. Good luck to the defenses that watch Jackson go one direction and Henry go the other direction and try to contain them.
Note: the best number I could find was +110, but that’s still a good edge so long as it’s plus money. I love the fact Denny picks the Ravens to win the division but then *waited* until Week 2 to get the best number. To me, that’s a pro. Showing patience and even expecting a loss. It’s something I need to work on which is handicapping the FULL SPECTRUM.
We don’t know yet if Baltimore wins the division and the futures bet wins. We’ll see. What matters is — we’re getting a great number and the evidence for betting Baltimore is convincing. I would only add that Cleveland is unlikely to win the division, Cincinnati has obvious problems, and Pittsburgh didn’t show much last week despite their win (they failed to score a TD).
Baltimore is the best team in this division, and the rest of the field is probably not as strong as feared (especially Cincinnati). This is a smart bet, and the timing is perfect.
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 1):
Results from my Betcoin.ag report:
17 wins – 13 loses – 1 push (net minus -$125)
Full Game Side — Baltimore +3 (-120) …. LOST
First Half Side — Baltimore +1.5 (-120) …. LOST
First Half Total — BAL/KC UNDER 23.5 (-120) …. WON
Player Prop — Longest Field Goal (Either Team) OVER 46.5 yards (-115) …. LOST
First Half Total — GB/PHI UNDER 23.5 (-105) …. LOST
Player Prop — JAX RB Etienne, Jr. OVER 19.5 receiving yards (-115) …. WON
First Half Total — JAX/MIA UNDER 24 …. PUSH
Player Prop — BUF WR Samuel OVER 3.5 receptions (+128) …. LOST
First Half Total — UNDER 23.5 (-105) …. LOST
Full Game Side — New Orleans -4 …. WON
First Half Total — UNDER 21 (-115) …. LOST
Player Prop — NOR PK Grupe OVER 6.5 points …. WON
Full Game Side — Indianapolis +3 (-115) …. WON
First Half Total — IND/HOU UNDER 24 (-120) …. WON
Player Prop — HOU QB Stroud OVER 7.5 rushing yards …. WON
Full Game Side — NY Giants +1.5 …. LOST
Full Game Total — MIN/NYG UNDER 41 …. WON
First Half Total — MIN/ NYG UNDER 20.5 (-120) …. WON
Full Game Side — Cincinnati -8.5 …. LOST
Moneyline — Cincinnati (-400) …. Risking $400 to win $100 …. LOST
Full Game Total — TEN/CHI UNDER 44.5 …. WON
First Half Side — Dallas +1.5 ….. WON
Full Game Side — Dallas +2.5 …. WON
Full Game Total — DAL/CLE OVER 41 …. WON
Full Game Side – Tampa Bay -3.5 …. WON
Team Total Full Game – Tampa Bay OVER 22.5 points (-115) …. WON
First Half Side — Las Vegas +1.5 (-115) …. WON
Full Game Side — Las Vegas +3 …. LOST
Player Prop — Raiders Kicker Carlson OVER 6.5 points (-115) …. LOST
Second Half Side — Detroit -2.5 (-105) ….. LOST
Player Prop — DET RB Montgomery OVER 55.5 yards (-115) …. WON
NFL HANDICAPPING CONTESTS – RESULTS:
Note: I entered four NFL handicapping contests this season – $18,000 was invested in these entries ($2,000 more is slated for a later contest). Results follow:
CIRCA SURVIVOR — WEEK 1
Ticket 1 — CIN ….. ELIMINATED
Ticket 2 — CIN ….. ELIMINATED
Ticket 3 — CIN ….. ELIMINATED
Ticket 4 — SEA ….. WON AND ADVANCED
Ticket 5 — NOR ….. WON AND ADVANCED
Obviously, the Bengals loss was crushing. About 40 percent of the field is gone, and I lost 60 percent of my initial investment–3 out of 5 tickets.
WESTGATE SUPERCONTEST (overall record: 13 wins – 12 losses – pushes)
Ticket 1 — TB; ATL; TEN; NYJ; DET (finished 2-3)
Ticket 2 — TB; ATL; DAL; NYJ; DET (finished 3-2)
Ticket 3 — TB; ATL; TEN; DAL; NYG (finished 2-3)
Ticket 4 — TB; ATL; TEN; NOR; DET (finished 3-2)
Ticket 5 — TB; ATL; NYJ; DAL; ARZ (finished 3-2)
Going slightly above .500 isn’t going to cut it–but I also avoided disaster, which is positive. Having three 3-2 tickets is acceptable….still disappointing results on two games….ATL and NYJ–also TEN was clearly the right side, but we got horribly unlucky on that result.
CIRCA MILLION (overall record: 16 wins – 9 losses – 0 pushes)
Ticket 1 — LV; DET; TEN; TB; JAX (finished 3-2)
Ticket 2 — LV; DET; TEN; TB; DAL (finished 3-2)
Ticket 3 — TB; DET; ARZ; NYJ; LV (finished 3-2)
Ticket 4 — TB; DET; ARZ; NOR; NYJ (finished 4-1)
Ticket 5 — LV; DET; DAL; NYJ; NOR (finished 3-2)
NYJ loss on MNF killed what could have been a fantastic start. Still, going 16-9 is a record I’ll take every week if I can get there.
GOLDEN NUGGET (overall record: 15 wins – 6 losses – 0 pushes)
-TICKET 1: (finished 5-2)
OK ST -7.5 …. W
OLD DOMIN +2.5 …. L
SJOSE ST +6.5 …. W
MISS ST +6.5 …. L
SO CARL +10 …. W
LOUVL -28 …. W
ILL +5.5 …. W
-TICKET 2: (finished 5-2)
OK ST -7.5 …. W
OLD DOMIN +2.5 …. L
SJOSE ST +6.5 …. W
MISS ST +6.5 …. L
SO CARL +10 …. W
FL INTL +6.5 …. W
ILL +5.5 …. W
-TICKET 3: (finished 5-2)
OK ST -7.5 …. W
OLD DOMIN +2.5 …. L
SJOSE ST +6.5 …. W
MISS ST +6.5 …. L
CAL +13 …. W
VA +2 …. W
UL MONROE +13 …. W
Here’s another very strong showing, hitting above 70 percent. This is a great start, especially considering it’s heavy on college football. These three tickets all rank in the top-20, though it’s very early in the contest.
NFL WEEK 2 – ANALYSIS AND PICKS
STARTING HYPOTHETICAL BANKROLL: $10,000
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE.
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2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 17
LOSSES — 13
PUSH — 2
NET WIN/LOSS — minus $125
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 17-13-1 (-$125)
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BUFFALO at MIAMI (THUR)
Spread: Dolphins -2.5
Moneyline: Dolphins -134 / Bills +118
Total: 48.5
After the NFL’s dull slate of midweek games over the years, we finally get to watch a potentially great matchup. Two AFC East rivals clash in one of the best early-season Thursday night battles in years. Both teams overcame double-digit deficits as home favorites in their opening games, but also failed to cover the line. Buffalo roared back from a 17-3 disadvantage, ultimately winning by 6 (line was -6.5). Miami came back from a 14-0 hole, winning on a last-second field goal by 3 (line was -3.5).
ANALYSIS:
- These two teams have seen a lot of each other lately. In the final regular season game back in Jan. 2024, Buffalo beat Miami and won the division crown. Just a week later, the Bills and Dolphins met in the Wild Card game in Buffalo. Buffalo won both games by close margins. Now, the two will meet again, with Miami set as a small home favorite even though they were swept by the Bills 3-0 last season. Early line showed MIA -1.5 which was bet up to -2.5 (currently). Does this reflect concerns about Bills QB Allen’s minor injury suffered last week? Could it be more serious than reported? I don’t know, but that might explain why Miami money is coming in.
- Another question is–how much weight do we give to last week’s performances and outcomes? We can agree the Dolphins had an excuse for their slow start. After all, they were playing Jacksonville (now healthy), which is a bona fide playoff contender. The Bills don’t have such an excuse and should have performed better versus lowly Arizona, surrendering 28 points, including a long KO return. To Buffalo’s credit, their 6.1 YPP (last week) will be enough to win most games. Miami posted 400 yards of total offense, but struggled to reach the 20 point mark.
- Typically, divisional games are thought to be lower scoring than other matchups. But recent stats don’t bear this out. Although it’s a small sample size, since head coach McDaniel took over the Dolphins, these rivals have played OVERs in four of the last five contests. With both teams (and offenses) healthy, we can probably expect points. There’s little or no value on a total of 48.5. But for those inclined to bet over/unders, the OVER might be worth consideration. The heat and humidity in Miami could take a toll, especially on the defenses in the second half.
- The WR Tyreek Hill situation didn’t have time to play out last weekend since it happened right before kickoff, but it could be far more relevant here. That was a national news story. Any possibility of a distraction for Hill and the rest of the offense, especially on a short week? This concern keeps me off the OVER.
- Buffalo has absolutely dominated this series over multiple seasons. Bills have won 9 of the last 10 SU. Only Miami was a fluke when Buffalo outgained the Dolphins nearly 3 to 1 in yardage but gave up several turnovers and lost. Bills are also 10-3 ATS in last 12 games as a road dog.
- Buffalo also likes national grass. Bills are 19-10-2 ATS in last 31 games on real grass (like in Miami).
- QB Allen was banged up last week in the win versus Arizona. He’s not afraid to run and make contact, but that also places him more at risk of injury. The left hand injury wouldn’t normally raise much concern–but keep in mind this Thursday game is just four days after the injury occurred.
- Allen’s results last week (2 rushing TDs and 2 passing TDs) were particularly impressive since he has to work with an overhauled WR corps with unfamiliar talent. Perhaps that’s one reason why Allen finished with completions to nine different receiving targets, which may be something to keep in mind when considering player props. I advise going UNDER on Bills’ receivers (both receptions and yardage) since the ball is likely to be spread around the field again and no WR. TE, or RB will get a big number of touches.
- Credit the Dolphins defense for steady improvement last week after starting off poorly. Miami allowed only 139 passing yards and forced 6 punts. That’s a promising sign for a unit that’s been the Achilles heel of this team.
- Counterargument: Each bet I think potentially might be worth an investment also is problematic. OVER would be tempting, but Allen’s hand injury raises concerns. Same thing with betting on Buffalo getting points. Kicking props are temping, but at 6.5 points, but to go OVER requires -130 vig. Slight lean to the first quarter total to go OVER 9.5 points priced at -110. Last season, both were top-10 1Q scoring offenses, which means they come out early and are aggressive. But I’ll skip the temptation and instead watch this matchup from the sidelines.
PICKS:
No Action.
LAS VEGAS at BALTIMORE (SUN)
Spread: Ravens -8.5
Moneyline: Ravens -420 / Raiders +350
Total: 41.5
This matchup appears to be a major mismatch. Baltimore came within a toenail of upsetting Super Bowl Champion Kansas City on the road ten days ago, and now opens at home versus a much softer opponent. The Raiders must play a second straight road game, and travel coast-to-coast after looking flat and dominated last week at LA Chargers. The question here appears to be — will the Ravens use this game to make a statement (hence, easily covering the spread)?
ANALYSIS:
- I made a futures wager on Baltimore to win the AFC North division. I’ll try to not let that bias influence my analysis and wagering on Ravens’ games, including this matchup hosting the Raiders. That said, Baltimore looks appealing not only as a side bet, a first-half bet, and perhaps a teaser play (assuming you can get a -120 or less vig price).
- I bet on Las Vegas last week in their game against the LA Chargers. I expected the defense to continue its impressive run from last season when (surprising stat coming!) the Raiders were actually be best defense in the NFL in points allowed in their last nine games. However, that defense looked very average last week, allowing 176 rushing yards. They put no pressure on the QB, which will cost them in a game like this, because that’s the one major vulnerability on the Ravens–when QB Jackson gets pressured, he makes mistakes.
- An even bigger concern for Las Vegas is the offense, which showed growing pains and problems, due in part to last week being journeyman QB Minshew’s first game with the team. The Raiders allowed 4 sacks, and only put up 71 rushing yards. That’s not a recipe for covering, let alone winning. Committing three costly turnovers didn’t help either. Now, they face another tough defense, certainly a much better unit than the Chargers which gave them problems last week. Baltimore held opponents to only 16 points per game last season, which led the NFL.
- There’s no shame in the Ravens losing to Kansas City in Arrowhead by one score. In fact, Baltimore is now riding a two-game losing streak dating back to last season, and both defeats were to the champs. Let’s also credit Baltimore as Ravens out-gained KC 452-353 in last week’s loss by a toe. Here’s a step down in class versus an opponent they should be able to handle. Add the extra rest and prep time (the Ravens played the previous Thursday) combined with the Raiders being forced to play a second straight road game, and pregame intangibles clearly favor Baltimore.
- In last week’s report, I touted the Ravens as an excellent first-half team, particularly against the spread. Lamar Jackson is the best 1H QB in the NFL and has the record to prove it. He’s also 60-24 SU as an NFL starter. Baltimore is also known for excelling at early season preparation under head coach John Harbaugh, and this game sets up perfectly for a strong 1H showing. Last season, the Ravens went 12-7 ATS in first halves. They barely missed the cover last week, but won’t be facing nearly as tough an opponent. I don’t like laying big numbers, but -4.5 is within reason for a rest, motivated, historically-good 1H team, especially hosting an offense that struggled in the opener.
- The Raiders’ rush defense was shaky last year, ranking 20th in yards allowed. Not only do they have to worry about the mobility of QB Jackson, but the Baltimore offense added vet RB Henry in the offseason. The Ravens collected 452 total yards against one of NFL’s best defenses last week. They should post impressive numbers this week, as well.
- Even though this is a new regime in Las Vegas, the Raiders have not been a good bounce-back team off a loss. They are are just 13-18-1 ATS in games following their last 32 losses. QB Minshew is just 15-23 SU as an NFL starter, as the Raiders are his 4th team.
- Counterargument: This game’s pointspread outcome may rest upon QB Minshew’s shoulders. To his credit, he started several games for the Colts last season, including a stunning 22-19 upset in Baltimore early in the year. So, Minshew knows this field and opponent and enjoyed success in the past. The Raiders have also been underestimated by betting markets — going 10-6-1 last season, for instance. However, this still appears to be a very bad spot for Las Vegas having to play in Baltimore which is rested and coming off a loss.
PICKS:
First Half Side — Baltimore -4.5
Team Prop — Baltimore to Score First and Win the Game (-113)
CLEVELAND at JACKSONVILLE (SUN)
Spread: Jaguars -3
Moneyline: Jaguars -162 / Browns +140
Total: 41.5
Both teams are coming off crushing opening week losses. However, Jacksonville as the home favorite looks like the much better team, especially given all the off-the-field drama happening in Cleveland. Laying -3 with the more rounded and consistent team appears to be a bargain.
ANALYSIS:
- Jacksonville should have defeated Miami last week. But they blew a two touchdown lead and lost on a last-second field goal on the road. Now–here’s a much more winnable game, at home, versus an opponent that’s floundering offensively and going through serious questioning of it’s topsy-turvy QB situation. JAX facing the Browns’ offense should be a much easier task this week than trying to slow down the far more diverse Dolphins. Add the motivation of playing the home opener off a loss and this looks to be a “bet the favorite” or pass decision.
- Cleveland had only 230 yards in LW’s 33-17 home loss to Dallas, even though they were playing catch up most of the game versus a prevent defense. Even worse, the Browns were 2/15 on 3rd down conversions. Those numbers in crunch time are staggeringly bad. Now, they also have a number of injuries, including to the running game, with an offensive line that’s average, at best. But the biggest problem in Cleveland might be with the QB who not only is losing the faith of his teammates, but fans are already turning on the ridiculously-paid scandal-plagued starter who may go down as the worst front office financial decision since, well Johnny Manziel. The revelation of another sexual abuse charge against Watson this week is a distraction that neither he, nor his team needs at the moment.
- We’re advised when handicapping matchups never to *overreact* to the results of just one week. However, I don’t know how else we can react to the Browns other than as fade material. The defense looked outclassed, the offense was dreadful, and even the spirit of the team was crushed — not something you often see at the home opener for a team with a rabid fan base. Sometimes, good teams will shake off a terrible performance. I just don’t see with all the issues going on the Cleveland how they’re going to reverse things so quickly, especially versus a good team that is extra motivated to bounce back themselves in their home opener.
- When we add all the intangibles, the Browns’ serious injuries, the contrasts in team continuity and chemistry, and some line value (I believe this number should be -3.5 or perhaps -4), Jacksonville -3 seems like a reasonable +EV wager.
- As for player props, in a low-scoring game, where both teams might struggle in the red zone, I like low-lined kicking props to go OVER. Browns’ kicker Hopkins is lined at just 5.5 points. Obviously, we most likely need two FGs to get there, which looks like a good bet. Hopkins made multiple clutch kicks for the Browns last season. He converted on 92 pct of field goal attempts and he was lights out from 50-plus yards, hitting all eight of his kicks. He kicked a 51-yarder this week and will be called up more than average, especially if offense stalls, as predicted.
- Counterargument: If the Browns’ defense is as good this week as the preseason predictions forecasted, this game could be low-scoring and the Browns could get the win and cover. The Jaguars didn’t move the ball well in the second half last week, and will need to play all four quarters. The UNDER could be worth a look, assuming one believes in the Browns’ defense and that opening game versus Dallas was just a fluke.
PICKS:
Full Game Side — Jacksonville -3
Player Prop — CLE Kicker Hopkins OVER 5.5 points (-125)
MORE WRITE-UPS COMING…..
UPDATE — MY CONTEST PICKS (TO BE FINALIZED SATURDAY AFTERNOON):
GOLDEN NUGGET LINES / PICKS — WEEK 1
TICKET 1 (5-2)
KAN -7
TCU +2
WK FOR +23
KTCKY +24
E CAR +2.5
HOU -4
SO MISS +11.5TICKET 2 (5-2)
KAN -7
TCU +2
VA +3
TUL +19
KTCKY +24
FL INTL +5.5
TOL +11.5TICKET 3 (5-2)
KAN -7
TCU +2
VA +3
WK FOR +23
BST COL +16.5
TULANE +13.5
UT ST +20
MORE PICKS PENDING