Nolan Dalla

10 Years of NFL Predictions and Picks: My Updated Record

 

 

On the 10-year anniversary of posting NFL picks on my website, this is the perfect time to look back and update my overall win-loss and financial record.  I started posting NFL predictions and picks back in 2012, so this month will conclude ten full seasons.  In the past decade, I’ve made approximately 1,400 picks and gambled well over a million dollars. 

 

As gamblers, there are games we remember.

There are also games we want to forget.

These games stick with us.  They affect us.  They shake us from our core.  They make us rethink what we’re doing.

The Cincinnati-Tennessee game played on Saturday, January 22, 2022, in the Divisional Round, was just such a game for me.

I won’t bore readers with why the outcome of this game won by the Bengals over the Titans by a 16-13 score was so upsetting.  It had nothing to do with the money that I lost.  It had everything to do with being completely wrong on my analysis and prediction.  In a sense, that’s far more troublesome.  Money comes and goes.  But a sports handicapper must be confident in what he’s doing. (*see footnote)

Be advised.  For the 2021-22 NFL season, I’m officially calling it a year.  I’m licking my wounds and taking my loss.  Sure, I might be able to fire away on the championship games and Super Bowl and crawl back to even, or even move a little ahead for the season.  But that’s called “chasing.”  Successful sports gamblers don’t chase.  Sometimes the right decision is not to play the game at all and to know when to take a break.

I’ll post opinions on next week’s round of games and give the Super Bowl picks, particularly on props.  I’ll also continue making bets.  But I’m closing the bankroll for the season and taking a marginal loss of about 16 percent on the starting bankroll.

Accordingly, this now seems like the perfect time to look back over the TEN YEARS of picks here at my site and update my overall record.  I started posting NFL predictions and picks in 2012, so this will conclude ten seasons.  In the past decade, I’ve made approximately 1,400 picks and gambled well over a million dollars.

What the numbers show:  In ten years, I’ve enjoyed 7 profitable seasons.  I’ve suffered 3 losing seasons.  In one season, I went broke by Week #11.  It should be noted that 1 season was basically break-even.

Moneywise, I’ve come out ahead:

Cumulative totals in 3 losing seasons — minus $12,645.     

Cumulative totals in 7 winning seasons — plus $22,928.

Net win over 10 years  — plus $10,283.

Everything is fully documented here.  Every prediction is here.  Every write-up.  Every single bet can be read and reviewed.  See the LINKS below to previous posts and full season wrap-ups.  It’s all there.  Show me another site with free picks that does this.  Please go ahead.  I’ll wait.

I’d also be remiss were I not to point out that I’ve paid out approximately $30,000 vig (juice) on the losses.  So, in the long run the real winner isn’t me, or probably you either, rather it’s more than likely the casino, the house, the sportsbook, and the bookmaker.  Caveat emptor.

There’s much to take away from all this, and I’ll get to that later on. I should be proud of the overall numbers because they prove a profit, but it’s an open question as to whether the return-on-investment is worth all the work. I post this because sports gambling is booming across America and new converts to this type of gambling should be aware of just how difficult it is to make serious money over the long run.

Year-to-year, here are my NFL handicapping results of EVERY pick I’ve posted here at www.nolandalla.com.

Thanks for reading, and good luck.

 

2021 NFL WAGERING RECORD

Starting Bankroll:  $10,000.

Ending Bankroll:  $8,571.

Net Win/Loss:  -$1,429.

LINK HERE

 

2020 NFL WAGERING RECORD

Starting Bankroll:  $10,000.

Ending Bankroll:  $14,306.

Net Win/Loss:  +$4,306.

LINK HERE

 

2019 NFL WAGERING RECORD

Starting Bankroll:   $ 8,398.

Ending Bankroll:   $8,399.

Net Win/Loss: +$1.

LINK HERE

 

2018 NFL SEASON RECORD

Starting Bankroll:  $10,000.

Ending Bankroll:  $14,834.

Net Win/Loss:  +$4,834.

LINK HERE

 

2017 NFL SEASON RECORD

Starting Bankroll:  $10,000.

Ending Bankroll:  $12,610.

Net Win/Loss:  +$2,610.

LINK HERE

 

2016 NFL SEASON RECORD

Starting Bankroll:  $10,000.

Ending Bankroll:  $9,784.

Net Win/Loss:   – $216.

LINK HERE

 

2015 NFL SEASON RECORD

Starting Bankroll:  $10,000.

Ending Bankroll:  $13,015.

Net Win/Loss:  +$3,015.

LINK HERE

 

2014 NFL SEASON RECORD (*busted in Week 11)

Starting Bankroll:  $10,000.

Ending Bankroll:  $0.

Net Win/Loss:  -$10,000.

LINK HERE

 

2013 NFL SEASON RECORD

Starting Bankroll:  $10,000.

Ending Bankroll:  $14,702.

Net Win/Loss:  +$4,702.

LINK HERE

 

2012 NFL SEASON RECORD

Starting Bankroll:  $10,000.

Ending Bankroll:  $13,460.

Net Win/Loss:  +$3,460

LINK HERE

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“….a sports handicapper must be confident in what he’s doing. (*see footnote)”

I’ll explain.  Fools and scammers are confident 100 percent of the time.  Confidence can also deceive.  Any football handicapper who does not question themselves and retool their methodology on occasion as the game changes and markets adjust is either scamming the public or completely fooling themselves.  Fact:  All handicappers suffer downswings.  And it’s perfectly natural to question yourself.  Even consistent winners question themselves.  Overconfidence is the worst possible trait of a sports gambler.  It leads to ruin.  

HOW TO DECIDE WHO TO FOLLOW IN NFL HANDICAPPING

Practicing what I preach (from the article above):

 

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