2025-26 NFL SEASON: SUPER BOWL ANALYSIS AND PICKS
2025-26 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 173
LOSSES — 139
PUSH — 7
NET WIN/LOSS — +$1,735
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 4-4-0 (-$15)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $11,735.
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
[Click HERE to read the previous week’s report.]
First-Half Line – New England -2.5 (-110)…L
Full-Game Line – New England -4.5 (-110)…L
Player Prop – NWE PK Borregale OVER 1.5 FGs (-135)…L
Prop: New England first drive outcome–PUNT (-105)…W
Full-Game Line – Seattle -2.5 (-110)…W
Player Prop — LAR QB Stafford OVER 35.5 pass attempts (-115)…L
Player Prop — LAR RB Williams OVER 15 receiving yards (-115)…W
Prop: NFL highest-scoring team this week – Seattle (+155)….W
THE SUPER BOWL BETTING STAT EVERYONE SHOULD KNOW
There’s one historical betting trend everyone should know when it comes to wagering on the Super Bowl.
That betting trend is this:
UNDERDOGS ARE 19-8-3 OVER THE PAST 30 YEARS
The team getting points has covered the spread in two-thirds (66.6 percent) of all games played in the previous three decades (1996-2025). Note that two games since 1996 landed on a push. One game closed as a “pick ’em.”
The underdog trend has been especially strong in recent years. Underdogs have covered in each of the last five Super Bowls (2020-2025). In fact, four of those five underdogs won the game outright in upsets.
For 2026, does this mean New England becomes the wise pick in Super Bowl LX? The Patriots are currently listed as +4.5 point underdogs to the Seahawks. New England is also listed at +190 on the moneyline.
Of course, many other factors should be considered as well when making picks and placing bets. And, previous results are no guarantee of future outcomes. To the contrary, most statistics reveal what’s called a “return to the mean” over time. This means outlier results in the short term never last and the opposite outcome will tend to offset any deviations in the long term.
I certainly won’t latch myself on to the argument that this (admittedly powerful) historical stat merits an automatic wager on the underdog. But let’s not ignore it, either. The fact that underdogs have outperformed betting market expectations over the past 30 years must be taken into account when making any wagers on this game.
SUPER BOWL ANALYSIS AND WAGERS:
Full-Game Line – Seattle -4.5 (-110)
I’m going against trends and recent history which favors underdogs and betting on Seattle to win and cover. Seattle (14-3) played an average strength-of-schedule this season (opponents posted a combined 49.8 percent win percentage). But they also competed in the NFL’s toughest division and also defeated five straight playoff teams in their last five–including the explosive Rams twice. Like many fans, I believe last week’s LAR-SEA game was the real matchup of the league’s best two teams, and Seattle passed that test. Seattle also won on this field (San Francisco’s home stadium) a month ago.
Meanwhile, New England (14-3) faced the NFL’s easiest schedule (opponents posted a combined 39.1 percent win percentage). Aside from splitting their yearly series versus rival Buffalo, the Patriots posted no exceptional quality wins. To their credit, they also didn’t lose any games this season by more than a touchdown. So, one can make a credible argument for taking the Patriots with the points.
Seattle has posted a 26-10 SU record over the past two seasons under head coach Mike McDonald, the best record in the league.
I also see Seattle peaking at the right time. Their three losses this season were by a combined 9 points (all to quality opponents), with the last previous defeat happening in Week 11, which was nearly three months ago.
Mike Vrabel and the Patriots deserve massive credit for reaching the Super Bowl. Yet, they really struggled last week. We can dismiss the second half due to a snowstorm. However, Patriots’ bettors should worry about a poor first half at Denver that was salvaged only because the Broncos were forced to play a backup QB who committed a fateful turnover last in the half. It’s fair to wonder if New England would be in the game without Denver’s bad injury luck. Similarly, the Patriots were beneficiaries of a horrible game by Houston’s offense the previous week, and also faced a banged up Chargers’ team in the first round. When we weight *recent form* (a horseracing term), Seattle looks like the thoroughbred in a stakes race. New England comes in with many more question marks.
IMPORTANT NOTE: TO READ THE FULL REPORT, WITH ALL WRITE-UPS…….
Be sure and visit BETCOIN.AG
CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week.
FINAL THOUGHTS:
With hundreds and even thousands of possible sides, totals, props, and exotics, I certainly have many opinions and leans. However, these ten wagers will be the foundation of my Super Bowl betting portfolio.
Thanks to everyone for reading and following along, this season.
FINAL LIST OF SUPER BOWL WAGERS:
(For those who just want the picks)
Full-Game Line – Seattle -4.5 (-110)
First-Half Line – Seattle -2.5 (-115)
First-Half Team Total – Seattle OVER 12.5 (-120)
Player Prop – SEA QB Sam Darnold First Rush UNDER 3.5 yards (-110)
Player Prop – SEA QB Sam Darnold UNDER 6.5 rushing yards (-110)
Player Prop – SEA RB Kenneth Walker OVER 22.5 receiving yards (-110)
Player Prop – NWE QB Drake Maye OVER 10.5 incompletions (-110)
Player Prop – NWE QB Drake Maye UNDER 6.5 rush attempts (-115)
Player Prop – NWE RB R. Stevenson UNDER 14.5 rush attempts (+115)
Player Prop – NWE RB Henderson UNDER 5.5 rush attempts (+155)
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