Nolan Dalla

2024 NFL Analysis and Picks: Week 8

 

 

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2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 58
LOSSES — 46
PUSH — 2
NET WIN/LOSS — plus $223
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 5-8 (-$430)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL; $10,223
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ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 7):
Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 7 REPORT HERE

Player Prop: QB Bo Nix OVER 186.5 passing yards (-115) … L
Player Prop: QB Bo Nix to throw an interception–YES (-140) … L
Player Prop: QB S. Rattler to throw an interception–YES (-130) … L
First-Half Side: New England +3.5 vs. Jacksonville (-120) … L
First-Quarter Side: New England .5 vs. Jacksonville (-115) … W
Full-Game Side: Houston +3 vs. Green Bay … W
Full-Game Side: Miami +3 vs. Indianapolis … L
Full-Game Side: NY Giants +3 vs.Philadelphia … L
Player Prop: MIA PK Sanders OVER 6.5 points vs. IND (-110) … L
Player Prop: IND PK Gay OVER 6.5 points vs. MIA (-135) … W
Player Prop: MIA TE Smith OVER 18.5 receiving yards vs. IND (-115) … W
First-Half Side: Kansas City +.5 vs. San Francisco (-120) … W
Full-Game Side: LA Chargers -2 vs. ARZ … L

 

THIS WEEK’S ANALYSIS AND PICKS (WEEK 8):

VIKINGS AT RAMS (TNF) — PLAYER PROP

The chances seem better than even that Rams QB Stafford will toss at least one interception in Thursday’s home game hosting the Vikings. Stafford is listed at -115 OVER .5 interceptions. I’m betting OVER (or YES).

Stafford can be a gutsy QB at times. But he also unnecessarily forces lots of his throws and has a higher than average pick-6 rate. When playing from behind, Stafford often makes even more mistakes. We presume the Rams will trail in this game since they’re the underdog, which plays into Stafford having to do more with the ball and throwing to the wrong jersey at least once.

Stafford’s stats show 4 ints on the season, but that also includes 1 in each of the last 3 games. Stafford passed only 23 times last week versus the lowly Raiders, but that was against a bad team and the Rams held the lead most of the game. He didn’t have to throw or do very much to win. Look for 30+ pass attempts in this game facing a far tougher defense.

Minnesota’s defense is #1 in the league in forcing interceptions, at nearly 2 per game. Part of the reason for the Vikings’ success at forcing turnovers is their pressuring opposing QB. By some metrics, Minnesota leads the league in blitzing and hurrying the opposition, which likely forces Stafford into even more mistakes in this matchup. The Rams OL looked disjoined much of last week and that’s unlikely to get fixed in 4 days. It would be one thing if the Rams were facing a mediocre defense with predictable blitz patterns which means Stafford won’t take many risks, but here they get the worst possible situation.

Pick: Player Prop: MIN vs. LAR – QB Stafford Interception YES (-115)

 

FINAL PICKS FOR THE WEEK:

(For those who just want the picks):

Player Prop: MIN vs. LAR – QB Stafford Interception YES (-115) [W]
Player Prop: CHI vs. WAS – QB Williams OVER 228.5 passing yards (-115)
Full-Game Team Total: ARZ vs. MIA – DOLPHINS UNDER 24.5 (-115)
Player Prop: KC vs. LVR – PK Carlson OVER 5.5 points (-110)
Full-Game Side: IND vs. HOU – COLTS +6
Full-Game Side: ATL vs. TB – FALCONS -2.5
First-Quarter Moneyline: PHI vs. CIN – BENGALS -135
Player Prop: NOR vs. LAC – SAINTS RB KAMARA UNDER 86.5 RECEIVING AND RUSHING YARDS (COMBINED)
Player Prop: TEN vs. DET – DET PK Bates UNDER 8.5 points (-135)
First-Half Side: TEN vs. DET – TITANS +7.5
First-Half Side: BUF vs. SEA – SEAHAWKS +1.5
Full-Game Side: NYG vs. PIT – STEELERS -6 (MNF)

 

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