NOLAN DALLA — 2015 NFL SEASON RECORD
23 WINS – 26 LOSSES — 2 PUSHES
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $9,227.
NET GAIN/LOSS: – $773
BEST BETS OF THE WEEK: 4 – 3 – 1
LAST WEEK: 1 — 5 — 0 (-$1,685)
So, I’m in the red for the first time this season. It’s certainly been a frustrating last two weeks. I’ve now on a 3-10-1 slide. I blame myself for missing two huge warning flags on games that were played last week (resulting in a loss of 3 units), which was unforgivable because I had solid information and then simply failed to apply it.
On my two wagers with Buffalo Bills plus the points, I recall that teams heading off to London in the very next game are something like 2-11 ATS in that preceding game as travel preparations for the long trip are being made. How I could have disregarded such a potentially big factor is beyond explanation. I had this factoid written up in my notes but simply didn’t catch it as I was doing the write up and making the two wagers. Still shaking my head about how bad a play BUF turned out to be.
The other terrible play was touting the UNDER in the NWE/INDY game, which had the added incentives of NWE being on a holy mission against the conference rival who leaked the “Deflategate” information, combined with QB Luck as the last-minute starter for INDY, which was certain to energize the Colts’ offense. Betting the UNDER in this situation was suicide. Again, this was another terrible mistake in handicapping.
Obviously, readers are advised to tread lightly, if at all this week and as we move forward. However, a down streak isn’t going to stop me from making several wagers this week, including what appears to be an ideal “teaser wheel” situation.
The “Teaser Wheel” strategy is a series of wagers I invented about 15 years ago, which is explained here: BETTING THE TEASER WHEEL
Now, on to a new week. I’m posting this early report on Friday evening, so I can catch a favorable number on the ARZ spoke of the teaser wheel. This line is almost certain to climb and perhaps might hit -10 by game time. So, since it’s such a crucial game and in order to get the best possible number, this must be bet now rather than later. That why this report is going out at least 36 hours in advance. Making 24 wagers, investing $5,280.
THIS WEEK’S BETS (lines current as of Friday, 5 pm PST):
Arizona plays at home on MNF versus Baltimore in a rare prime time nationally televised appearance. This game sets up for an ideal teaser spot for the superior home team (4-2 SU) with motivation versus a poor 1-5 SU team that may have given up on the season and continues to struggle both offensively and defensively. BALT has one win, which would have been a loss had it not been for a missed FG. They looked terrible defensively, and simply do not have the wideouts to compete with a high scoring opponent like the Cardinals. BALT is in their second straight coast-to-coast road game, and looks to be outclassed in every sphere of the game. ARZ coming off their loss only adds to the motivation here, I believe. They are the league’s best at yards-per-play and YPP differential, which is a key statistic in controlling the line of scrimmage. Balanced attack with both run and pass, plus genuine deep threats. This should be a double digit victory by the favorite. However, the safer play appears to wheel them down under the FG. Line is now ARZ -7.5 which I will tease across all the key numbers (3, 4, 6, 7) making this ARZ -1.5 (on the 6-point teaser). We combine this first part of the two-teamer with the entire remainder of the board for the second half of the teaser, for $220/200 each. Here’s the complete list of wagers and lines:
2-Team/6-Point Teaser: ARZ -1.5 with BUF +1.5 — Wagering $220 to win $200
2-Team/6-Point Teaser: ARZ -1.5 with JAX +10.5 — Wagering $220 to win $200
2-Team/6-Point Teaser: ARZ -1.5 with CLEVE +12.5 — Wagering $220 to win $200
2-Team/6-Point Teaser: ARZ -1.5 with STL -.5 — Wagering $220 to win $200
2-Team/6-Point Teaser: ARZ -1.5 with PITT +9 — Wagering $220 to win $200
2-Team/6-Point Teaser: ARZ -1.5 with KC +3 — Wagering $220 to win $200
2-Team/6-Point Teaser: ARZ -1.5 with HOU +11 — Wagering $220 to win $200
2-Team/6-Point Teaser: ARZ -1.5 with MIA +1 — Wagering $220 to win $200
2-Team/6-Point Teaser: ARZ -1.5 with NYJ +13.5 — Wagering $220 to win $200
2-Team/6-Point Teaser: ARZ -1.5 with NWE -1.5 — Wagering $220 to win $200
BEST BET: 2-Team/6-Point Teaser: ARZ -1.5 with MINN +4.5 — Wagering $220 to win $200
BEST BET: 2-Team/6-Point Teaser: ARZ -1.5 with DET +7.5 — Wagering $220 to win $200
2-Team/6-Point Teaser: ARZ -1.5 with ATL PK — Wagering $220 to win $200
2-Team/6-Point Teaser: ARZ -1.5 with TENN +12 — Wagering $220 to win $200
2-Team/6-Point Teaser: ARZ -1.5 with TBAY +9 — Wagering $220 to win $200
2-Team/6-Point Teaser: ARZ -1.5 with WASH +3 — Wagering $220 to win $200
2-Team/6-Point Teaser: ARZ -1.5 with NOR +10 — Wagering $220 to win $200
2-Team/6-Point Teaser: ARZ -1.5 with INDY +2 — Wagering $220 to win $200
2-Team/6-Point Teaser: ARZ -1.5 with OAK +10 — Wagering $220 to win $200
2-Team/6-Point Teaser: ARZ -1.5 with SDI +2 — Wagering $220 to win $200
2-Team/6-Point Teaser: ARZ -1.5 with DAL +9.5 — Wagering $220 to win $200
2-Team/6-Point Teaser: ARZ -1.5 with NYG +2.5 — Wagering $220 to win $200
2-Team/6-Point Teaser: ARZ -1.5 with CAR +3 — Wagering $220 to win $200
2-Team/6-Point Teaser: ARZ -1.5 with PHIL +9 — Wagering $220 to win $200
SCORE PREDICTIONS:
JAX 24 – BUF 23
STL 23 – CLEVE 17
KC 20 – PITT 16
MIA 30 – HOU 16
NWE 34 – NYJ – 17
DET 31 – MINN 30
TENN 27 – ATL 24
WASH 23 – TB 19
INDY 38 – NOR 20
SDI 24 – OAK 17
NYG 27 – DAL 20
CAR 23 – PHIL 16
ARZ 37 – BALT 17
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
BEST BET: Buffalo +3 vs. Cincinnati (-110) — $550 to win $500 LOST
First Half: Buffalo +1 vs. Cincinnati (-110) — $275 to win $250 LOST
First Half Team Total: Washington OVER 7.5 (-130) — $390 to win $300 WON
First Quarter: Chicago +.5 at Detroit (-130) — $390 to win $300 LOST
New England / Indianapolis UNDER 54 (-110) — $440 to win $4o0 LOST
NY Giants +5 at Philadelphia (-110) — $330 to win $300 LOST
SEASON WIN TOTALS — WAGERS
Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 8.5 (+115) — wagering $2,000 to win $2,300 4-2
Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 9.5 (-110) — wagering $1,050 to win $1,000 3-3
NY Jets UNDER 7.5 (-120 /-135) — wagering $1,275 to win $1,000 5-1
Tennessee Titans OVER 5.5 (-150) — wagering $450 to win $300 1-5
Cleveland Browns UNDER 6.5 (-170) — wagering $510 to win $300 2-4