NOLAN DALLA — 2015 NFL SEASON RECORD
22 WINS – 21 LOSSES — 2 PUSHES
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $10,912.
NET GAIN/LOSS: + $912.
BEST BETS OF THE WEEK: 4 – 2 – 1
LAST WEEK: 2 — 5 — 1 (-$1,410)
Looking upon one’s sports betting results can be a case of the glass being either half full, or half empty. Five weeks into the NFL regular season, I’m barely above the .500 mark. However, my betting bankroll is up 9 percent. So if you were to ask me directly — would I accept these identical results extended out for the remainder of the season, which would mean ending up 5 to 6 games over the break even mark and about a 35 to 40 percent increase in bankroll, I’d have a difficult decision to make. Then, I’d be inclined to say “yes.”
I’m puzzled as to how my fellow gamblers react negatively to these modest numbers. I’ve received feedback from lots of people, in many cases intelligent people, who think I’m having a bad year. Obviously, I also get more than my fair share of “you suck” comments and e-mails, which may be true, but certainly shouldn’t be predicated on being only ahead by 9 percent for the season after five weeks. Do these critics understand how difficult it is to win betting on pro football in the long run? What planet are these people living on?
Flash in the pans are out there; they’re everywhere. You’ll find plenty of handicappers hitting 60 or perhaps even 70 percent. You’ll find just as many (frauds) claiming they can hit or 80 percent. Indeed, the law of large numbers suggests that someone in the gambling universe, there are football bettors on a roll, kicking ass, and raking in profits — at least in a single season. Trouble is, these hot streaks never last. Everyone and everything regresses back to the mean, which translates into winning percentages on flat bets that will likely end up between 45 and 55 percent. Any handicapper who picks a reasonably large number of games over the long run and ends up winning 56 percent of the plays is someone with habits to emulate and picks to follow. Anyone who knows what he’s doing will agree and anyone who doesn’t simply hasn’t been around long enough to experience the inevitable cold streak which is the great humbler of confidence.
Obviously, I hope to do better than just modest expectations this season. But I’ll also accept a win anytime I can get it. So now, let’s move on to this week’s games. Six plays.
THIS WEEK’S BETS (lines current as of Sunday, 9 am PST):
BEST BET: Buffalo +3 vs. Cincinnati (-110) — $550 to win $500
First Half: Buffalo +1 vs. Cincinnati (-110) — $275 to win $250
Terrible spot for CIN coming off the huge comeback win at home from 17 points down last week and now going on road versus team with new starting QB which is likely more desperate for the win. CIN seems primed for their first loss here, especially if BUF defense plays up to expectation. I also like backup QB Manuel starting here, who is more than capable after being the starter most of last season, with experience running the offense, and waiting for this opportunity. Getting points with a live home dog, some more motivated key players, facing a fat and happy opponent after a huge win is usually a winning proposition.
First Half Team Total: Washington OVER 7.5 (-130) — $390 to win $300
Inexplicably low first half total here for a WASH offense that has produced solid first half numbers three straight weeks and continues to show signs of improvement. WASH could be 4-1 right now, except for a couple of disastrous plays that cost them two games. I’m also totally unconvinced NY Jets are the real deal, and if WASH top defense against the run does its job, that should create more opportunities and better field position. I just see this as a ridiculous overreaction to the NY Jets defense which hasn’t really done all that much to inspire this kind of number.
First Quarter: Chicago +.5 at Detroit (-130) — $390 to win $300
DET is 0-5 and fans have turned against the team, playing at home this week versus division rival off an upset win, and winners of last two games. DET QB Stafford one of lowest NFL passer ratings among starters this season, facing surprisingly resilient QB Cutler who has played well since early season injury. CHI is banged up, but then so is DET, especially on defense. Key stat here could be RB Forte for CHI who leads NFL in rushing. Grab the points in the opening quarter against a shaky opponent, laying a reasonable vig price. Looking for ball control early from CHI and not much from DET offense.
New England / Indianapolis UNDER 54 (-110) — $440 to win $4o0
Total is rightfully the highest on the board due to NWE’s offensive roll. I’m just not sure they can continue to post big numbers each week, especially here in a back-to-back road situation. INDY will also have to score its share of point to break this total, which looks like a good fade. For a total to be this high, we normally need two powerful offenses and strong quarterbacks on both side. That’s not the case here. Moreover, one senses that NWE eventually will have an off game, and this could be the week with rival NYJ on deck next week.
NY Giants +5 at Philadelphia (-110) — $330 to win $300
Taking the generous points in a division rivalry match up on MNF. NYG probably the slightly better team at the moment, winners of three straight (two close losses). PHIL way too inconsistent to be laying anything more than perhaps -3.5 here, so we get some added value picking up the 4. Huge game for both teams which could determine the NFC East winner, so look for a close game decided by a late field goal.
SCORE FORECAST (Note: Not Included in Q-L Record)
Denver 23 / Cleveland 17
Buffalo 27 / Cincinnati 20
Minnesota 31 / Kansas City 20
Jacksonville 23 / Houston 16
Chicago 27 / Detroit 24
Washington 24 / NY Jets 23
Arizona 34 / Pittsburgh 20
Miami 27 / Tennessee 24
Seattle 17 / Carolina 16
Green Bay 30 / San Diego 20
San Francisco 30 / Baltimore 21
New England 30 / Indianapolis 17
Philadelphia 31 / NY Giants 247
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
BEST BET: Cincinnati – 3 vs. Seattle (-110) — Risking $550 to win $500 …..PUSH
First Half: Buffalo / Tennessee OVER 21 (-115) — Risking $460 to win $400 …..LOST
Washington +7 at Atlanta (-115) — Risking $230 to win $200 …..WON
Jacksonville +3 at Tampa Bay (-115) — Risking $460 to win $400 …..LOST
First Half — Jacksonville +1.5 (-110) — Risking $330 to win $300 ……LOST
New Orleans +6 at Philadelphia (-110) — Risking $330 to win $300 …..LOST
First Half — New Orleans +3.5 (-115) — Risking $345 to win $300 …..WON
Oakland +4 vs. Denver (110) — Risking $330 to win $300 …..LOST
SEASON WIN TOTALS — WAGERS
Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 8.5 (+115) — wagering $2,000 to win $2,300 2-2
Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 9.5 (-110) — wagering $1,050 to win $1,000 2-3
NY Jets UNDER 7.5 (-120 /-135) — wagering $1,275 to win $1,000 3-1
Tennessee Titans OVER 5.5 (-150) — wagering $450 to win $300 1-3
Cleveland Browns UNDER 6.5 (-170) — wagering $510 to win $300 2-3