BUSTING MYTHS AND EXPOSING LIES:
THIS WAR IS OVER, IS EASY, AND/OR “WINNABLE”
All too often, many Americans reveal an appalling lack of knowledge about other countries — including their cultures and histories. Current perceptions of Iran might be the very best (meaning the worst) example of this costly mass hubris.
Our ignorance and arrogance has cost us dearly before — in Vietnam, in Iraq, in Afghanistan. All were inferior military powers, and two were almost primitive by the standards of America’s supreme military firepower. But, look what happened.
And, it’s now happening. Yet again. The steps are so frighteningly similar. Upon the smoldering ash heap of a mountain of lies already spewed about the Iran-USA/Israel War is the outrageously naive idea that the Islamic Republic of Iran would (1) fall quickly, or just in case they were wrong about that…..(2) the war would be easy, or winnable within only a few days….and just in case they were also wrong about that (3) the U.S. could bomb its way to victory, without “boots on the ground.” So far, they’re 0 for 2. This is/was criminal insanity to believe this. Any of this. It’s Bonkers. A high schooler playing the old war game “Risk” could have figured this out.Yet, the President of the United States said all of this, and millions believed it. With no one brave or sane enough to counter maniacal naivete, the President even went so far as to announce he initially ordered attacks on Iran because he “had a feeling.”
How does one make sense, or argue with that?
One month later, here we are. Iran may be even more menacing now than when this war first began. They’re certainly better stocked, more capable, and much more ready than Trump and his regime of blind loyalists expected. Trump (and Israel, which shares guilt for many of these miscalculations and wrongs) blew it, big time. The state propaganda from their “War” Department might look impressive as a video game, but then war is always “sold” to the public. We’ve bought these lies before, but there’s no return policy in wartime.
Anyone foolish enough to believe Iran would fall quickly, or will experience a change in government anytime soon should not be nowhere near any decision-making or policy desk. That level of ignorance gets people killed and ends up costing billions, sometimes even trillions. We can’t afford either.
A very short history: The Persians (Iran) have been around for 2.500 years. That’s ten times longer than the United States has existed. During multiple periods of a long and proud history, Persians were one of the most advanced civilizations in the world. Sounds like us, doesn’t it? A generation ago, Iran fought a brutal war against its neighbor Iraq (then ruled by Saddam Hussein, backed by the United States). Iran lost an estimated 300,000 troops and close to another million Iranians were seriously injured. Yet, Iran NEVER came close to surrender, nor was the hardline government in danger of falling during that entire time. Oh, they’re stronger today than then. History proves, this is a determined population, with a sizable fanatical core in charge of things.
America’s blind war hawks and loyal Trump cultists are at it again. Another unsubstantiated threat. Weapons of mass whatever. Now, they’re even claiming that Iran is nothing at all like Afghanistan. In part, they may be right — because they’re much bigger and stronger:
— Iran is huge! It’s roughly the size as Alaska, 2.5 times the size of Texas, and covers about one-quarter of the continental US land area.
— Iran has lots of people! It has twice the population of Iraq, a war where were were bogged down for nearly two decades. The same comparison applies to Afghanistan.
— Iran knows this war has been coming and is prepared for it! It is far more more advanced militarily than either of our previous Middle East adversaries. We’re learning that now, the hard way. “Intelligence” on Iran has been unreliable and outdated, at best.
— Iran has capable weapons and combatants! It has a military trained in high-tech warfare. Iraq and Afghanistan (including the Taliban) were far inferior to the Iranians.
— Iran has powerful friends! It has established relationships and supply lines with Russia and China, who could provide them with assistance.
In short, Iran is a much more powerful adversary than anything we’ve seen before in the Middle East. And once again — this cannot be overstated — the American President has already made several miscalculations. Can he really be trusted to act wisely in any prolonged engagement?
In fact, this excursion-incursion-war, whatever the President tries to call it, has EMPOWERED the most extreme elements of the Iranian regime. It has not weakened them (domestically). We made the beast stronger.
The USA (and Israeli) attacks have only served to PROVE that all the dire warnings over decades about foreign invaders were ACCURATE. Those chants about “Satan” became prophetic. Any moderate point of view inside Iran has completely disappeared (Iranian moderates, including some secularists, were steadily growing in power during and immediately after the working Obama nuclear deal, a.k.a. JCPOA, before Trump ripped it apart, thus leading to Iran to become more hardline in response). As for other incendiary mistakes, bombing and murdering 170 Iranian schoolgirls (then repeatedly lying about it) doesn’t help either. Not exactly a positive for “liberation.” Just wait to see how these events play out with 1.2 billion Muslims all over the world.
Today, every Western military analyst using any reliable metric lists the Islamic Republic of Iran as one of the world’s top-20 military powers. Even with heavy attacks and many strikes, including losses, Iran remains defiant. They’ve been here before. And Iran met the test. The “enemy” has been underestimated. Yet again. That’s a very bad thing to do in any engagement. It can be suicidal in a war.
Even if the war is finally “won” in some undetermined form and fashion (likely returning right back to where we were before), the real problem ahead may be repairing the damage. Getting anyone to trust the United States after all the lies, all the inconsistencies, and all the false provocations won’t be easy. Insulting allies and demeaning other nations won’t make this task any easier. Whoever gets elected President in 2028 may be walking into a an impossible situation, with America’s reputation in ruins by then.
Finally, assuming a “dream outcome,” which would be Iran’s complete downfall and a government change, that still leaves about one-third of Iran’s population as fanatical Islamic fundamentalists who will be eager to do Allah’s work and extract revenge upon the Invaders and occupiers. That’s potentially 25-30 million hostile unmanageable people, combatants, suicide bombers. U.S. military might couldn’t overcome anything even a fraction of that population size — in either Iraq or Afghanistan. Hence, even under the best-case scenario, the test wouldn’t just be winning militarily without it bankrupting us and costing thousands of American lives. After war, it’s even harder to occupy, and run a nation, and prop up a fragile new government lacking in any credibility that hasn’t earned it’s “revolutionary” stripes.
The war is not won, as we’ve been told. The war was not easy, as we’ve been told. The war is not winnable, which is what we’re being told now. Each of these is a myth.
If anyone with a brain in the White House remains and has any influence with someone who doesn’t read briefings or listen, they will explain this to the President and he can scrap up some performative “deal” — though we all end up with an even more hardline regime in Iran and America’s credibility is shot in many parts of the world. In a sense, that means Iran likely wins, no matter what.