FINAL 2025-26 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 181
LOSSES — 143
PUSH — 7
NET WIN/LOSS — +$1,860.
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 8-4-0 (+$125.)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $11,860.
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
[Click HERE to read the full Super Bowl report.]
—-Futures Bet — Drake Maye to win MVP (-365)…L graded
—-Futures Bet — Mike Vrabel to win Coach of the Year (+105)…W graded
Full-Game Line – Seattle -4.5 (-110)….W
First-Half Line – Seattle -2.5 (-115)….W
First-Half Team Total – Seattle OVER 12.5 (-120)…L
Player Prop – SEA QB Sam Darnold First Rush UNDER 3.5 yards (-110)…L
Player Prop – SEA QB Sam Darnold UNDER 6.5 rushing yards (-110)…W
Player Prop – SEA RB Kenneth Walker OVER 22.5 receiving yards (-110)…W
Player Prop – NWE QB Drake Maye OVER 10.5 incompletions (-110)…W
Player Prop – NWE QB Drake Maye UNDER 6.5 rush attempts (-115)…W
Player Prop – NWE RB R. Stevenson UNDER 14.5 rush attempts (+115)…W
Player Prop – NWE RB Henderson UNDER 5.5 rush attempts (+155)…L
A “GOOD BEAT” STORY
Okay, so we all know about “bad beat” stories in sports betting. But here’s a “good beat” story. It happened in the Super Bowl.
I made a wager on a player prop — SEA QB DARNOLD UNDER 6.5 RUSHING YARDS. Translation: I’m betting Darnold’s total combined rushing yards for the game finishes at 6 yards or fewer.
Imagine my horror when mid-second quarter, Darnold is flushed out of the pocket, tucks the football, and darts downfield for an 11-yard gain. Boom. Loser. I checked that bet off my card and didn’t give it another thought until much later. Chalk it up as a loss and move on.
With about 2 minutes left in the game, this (lost) bet catches my attention again and do some quick math. Surprisingly, Darnold didn’t have another rush in the entire game. So, he’s sitting firm on *11* yards. As I noted in my pregame analysis (see: https://www.betcoin.ag/page/nolan-expert-picks-week22/ ) I figured whoever the winning QB is, he might kneel down late in the game. A kneel down counts as -1 yard. So, even under the best-case scenario, which is three straight kneel downs, -1, -1, -1 …. that still gives Darnold 8 yards — meaning the ticket remains a loser. And, if he steps back for an extra yard on one of the plays — it’s still a loser. No chance. The ticket looks dead.
Next comes the unexpected. Seattle’s RB (Kenneth Walker III who ends up as the Super Bowl MVP) makes his one and only mistake of the game. He was supposed to get the ball on a handoff, but blows the assignment. QB Darnold takes the ball, steps back, see’s no one to hand the ball to, gets frazzled, and instantly drops to his knees into a fetal position. THAT’S A QB RUSHING ATTEMPT!
Darnold gets officially graded with a -6 yard loss. So, his rushing yardage total drops from *11* down to *5* yards, where it finishes. BINGO! My LOSING ticket is now a WINNER. Ladies and gents, I just watched the game’s most exciting play! Yeah, that’s what gambling does to you. A total change of perspective.
Overall, it was a good day. Ended up with 7 wins and 3 losses.
Nice way to end another winning season. I really enjoyed that -6 yard rushing loss by Darnold. It’s great ending a football season with a laugh and a win.
2012-PRESENT NFL BETTING SUMMARY:
I’m pleased to end another football season on a winning note, more wins than losses, and plus-money record.
This season was a better result than in 2024-25. Last year, I ended up at +25 games above the .500 mark and a +7.93 units in profit:
WINS — 161
LOSSES — 136
PUSH — 4
For those keeping score, that’s 11 winning seasons and 4 losing seasons since 2012, and all those results are verifiable right here at my website, and others where I post (see more HERE).