First of all, no — this is not me in the photo.
Read on (long report coming) — if you like these write-ups, please pay attention to and visit the links.
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2026-27 NFL SEASON: WEEK 1 – ANALYSIS AND PICKS
by Nolan Dalla
2026-27 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 0
LOSSES — 0
PUSH — 0
NET WIN/LOSS — +/- $0
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 0-0-0 (+/- $0)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $10,000.
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ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
—BEST FUTURES BET—
In case you missed it, I posted a report here on this site on the Minnesota Vikings, who I expect will have a much-improved season. Click HERE to read my analysis of Minnesota and analyze the options on betting the Vikings on various futures options.
—PREVIOUS SEASON’S RESULTS (2011-2025—
Readers need to know who they are reading. Here’s a short synopsis.
Since 2012, I have enjoyed 11 winning seasons in handicapping and betting and 4 losing seasons with a net gain in most categories. Full disclosure—–I went broke once (in 2015). But lots of very good years and a few great seasons are in there and have always been posted publicly.
I consider myself a *student* of the game and betting, with lots more to learn. Anyone who claims to be an “expert” in sports gambling….is no expert. Run the other way when someone claims to be that. There are no “experts” in a business that is constantly changing. There are only successful students.
Last season (2025), here at this public website, I enjoyed a very solid year. Final results were 181 wins, 143 losses, 7 pushes —– for a net gain of +38 units above .500 and +18.6 units betting $100 flat. That’s +1,860 in profit based on those metrics. I was about break even until midseason, then went on a rush. Solid numbers, but I warn readers about my slow starts in recent years. Nonetheless, if you can find someone who releases more picks with those results for free, I’d like to hear about it.
The season before (2024) at this site, I finished at 161 wins, 136 losses, and 4 pushes —– for a net gain of +25 games above the .500 mark and a +7.93 units in profit. My Las Vegas handicapping contest results that year were far better, finishing second in the Westgate SuperContest that season out of ~1,200 entrants (netting $186,000) in contest profits.
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All those results are verifiable right here and/or at my personal website, and on Facebook, and other places where I post. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me. Every NFL report I have ever written which contains about 2,500 picks over 15 years can be found to this day at my site: www.nolandalla.com
Forgive the detailed background report because I know most of you just want analysis and picks, but I need to post my record going forward because PAST PERFORMANCE is important. Anyone who does not post VERIFIABLE results of their picks should be avoided. Especially handicappers on TV and those and the major sports websites. 99 percent of them break even at best or should be faded. This is a simple fact proven by history – which is why they almost NEVER show you their betting histories.
I cannot stress this enough: I don’t care what someone thinks about a game until I see the depth of a reliable track record.
This is not easy. It’s not even fun much of the time. It’s work. There are no shortcuts.
Here’s to a new season!
Bring on 2026!
—WEEK 1 ANALYSIS AND PICKS—
Cleveland at Jacksonville
Line: Jaguars -8.5
Total: O/U 40.5
This line opened early at JAX -7 but has since moved to -8.5 and -9 in a few spots. It’s easy to see why. Who in their right mind would bet on the Cleveland Browns right now?
Everything looks like a mess for the Browns. New and unproven coaching staff. Two struggling QBs, including some offseason controversy. Plus, the Browns lost their best defensive player. And, oh yeah — Cleveland has an entirely new starting five on the offensive line. When I saw that news, this became a mandatory *lay-the-points” wager, as it’s hard to see anything that inspires confidence on Cleveland so early in the season.
Jacksonville was a very under-the-radar 13-4 in the regular season and comes into 2026 with lots of confidence. Here’s the perfect punching bag at home to start the season off with what should be an easy victory. I just don’t see how the Browns with all their problems go on the road with essentially an entirely new offense and coaching staff and keeps this within a touchdown.
Note: I examined lots of totals and player props, but if Cleveland’s offense is as bad as I think they might be, then Jacksonville may not have to do much statistically and points-wise to win. That makes projecting player stats more difficult.
Wagers:
Jacksonville -8.5 (-110)
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Tampa Bay at Cincinnati
Line: Bengals -4 (even)
Total: O/U 50.5
This line opened up at -3, was bet up to -3.5, and is now -4 with added vig in several spots. To me, this looks like sucker money coming in on shaky and overrated Cincinnati.
Both teams have lots of question marks on both sides of the ball. However, Tampa Bay has historically started off strongly, including 5 straight opening day wins, while Cincinnati has been a notorious September team bith SU and ATS with their current personnel. We keep hearing *this* is the year the Bengals will break the early-season curse, but until I see it, I’ll take a veteran opposition team with its own things to prove coming off a disappointing season (including a horrible 1-9 run to close last year, which was riddled with injuries).
We all know CIN QB Burrow’s talent (when he’s healthy), but TB QB Mayfield is right there statistically. Even with problems on his offense, Mayfield still threw for 3,700 yards with 26 touchdowns and only 11 interceptions — so, if that’s the floor in a bad season, he should improve now healthier versus a bad defense (that’s supposedly “improved” — we’ll see.
I expect two veteran QBs and good skill position players will make this a close, higher-scoring game than average. I liked the Bucs at +3.5, and now that I’m catching +4, that’s an even stronger wager.
I’ll also take the Bucs in the 1Q. I was surprised to see them getting +1.5 (-130) instead of the expected .5 (half point). I can’t see any scenario where Tampa Bay’s Mayfield doesn’t throw 40-50 passes and gets enough yardage to break a low total (especially given Bengals’ defensive problems last season). Going OVER on his yardage total of 232.5 (-115) looks obvious.
Wagers:
Full Game Side: Tampa Bay +4 vs. Cincinnati (-120)
First Quarter: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-130)
Player Prop: TB QB Mayfield OVER 232.5 passing yards (-115)
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Baltimore vs. Indianapolis
Line: Ravens -4
Total: O/U 47.5
This one’s easy. We’re seeing echo chambers of public money moving lines, and it’s not the smart direction. Check the results, so far: Seahawks failed to cover, then Rams failed to cover. Now, here’s another hyped team — the Ravens who are the AFC favorite to reach the Super Bowl, which is ridiculous.
Maybe Baltimore eventually delivers on high expectations, but I see Baltimore as overrated, and QB Jackson as a player with a very slim window to reach the Super Bowl–as he’s never been a winning big game QB. In years past early in the season, Jackson and the Ravens enjoyed the *carryover* momentum of ex-coach Harbaugh’s strong concentration on winning in preseason (recall Baltimore’s unusual pre-season ritual and record results). But he’s gone now, and we don’t know how this new coaching staff will fare. So, the Ravens laying this high a number is hype that I’m happy to fade. Especially until I see they are worthy of all the public adulation and money.
The Colts did start the season off strongly last season and were one of the NFL’s biggest surprises before QB Jones went down with a season-ending injury. I don’t like concentrating on last season’s results, but Indy was 8-2 and then they faced a gauntlet of brutal opponents–KC, HOU, JAX, SEA, JAX, SFO, HOU without their starting QB. With Jones back and RB Taylor as a threat, Indy should be able to keep this one close.
Line opened at -3 and -3.5 in some places and now that +4s are appearing, that’s an easy decision to play the home dog against what might be an overrated team that has yet to prove they belong with this level of confidence. I’m adding an OVER on receiving yardage for IND WR Pierce, who should get more targets now that Pittman is gone from Indy. Jones should get the ball in his hands, especially if the Colts are playing from behind and throwing often.
Wagers:
Full Game Side: Indianapolis +4 vs. Baltimore (-115)
Player Prop: IND WR Pierce OVER 48.5 receiving yards (-115)
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Atlanta vs. Pittsburgh
Line: Steelers -6
Total: O/U 41.5
I liked Pittsburgh before lots of breaking news late in the week in this game that played havoc with lots of odds attached to this matchup. The Steelers were widely thought to be in a regression mode, but I’m not so sure there’s not a winning season in the near future ahead.
For one, I expect new coach McCarthy to keep ancient QB Rodgers focused in one last effort. Pittsburgh had decent personnel already, especially on defense, and this combo should be enough to defeat inferior opponents. Perhaps they won’t contend for the division with Balt and Cincy, but Pittsburgh should be able to wallop outclassed Atlanta at home.
The breaking news on Friday was the change at QB for Atlanta. This broke out of nowhere. Acquired from Miami, Tagovailoa was expected to open the season as the starter with Penix Jr. as the backup. However, they are BOTH out for Sunday, which means Dallas/Baltimore washout Cooper Rush will start for Atlanta after joining the team about a month ago. That’s a really bad spot to be thrown into.
I’m not sure many trends and angles apply here, as there has been so many changes on both sidelines. But with good veteran talent on the Pittsburgh sideline, facing a weak team with a clear bench-warming QB, I’m going to lay the chalk, even though it’s approaching a TD. In the Las Vegas handicapping contests, with early stale lines, I took Steelers -3.5 across the board on every ticket. But for purposes of grading, I’ll lay -6 which is now the current number.
Wagers:
Full Game Side: Pittsburgh -6 vs. Atlanta (-105)
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Buffalo vs. Houston
Line: Bills -1.5
Total: O/U 45.5
I love Buffalo and their level of talent ….. but just a feeling here Houston will pull off a minor upset in this attractive opener. We all know Texans field one of the NFL’s best defenses, but what’s been talked about in Houston these past eight months was the Texans weak offense and lingering questions about QB Stroud and his leadership. I expect this pressure will light a fire under Houston and they’ll come out with something to prove, especially on offense. Buffalo with its cast can outscore anyone, but they’re also a unit that often gives up big plays and lots of points. Here, in a tough road game, this showdown has (minor) upset written all over it.
Accordingly, I’m also betting on Stroud to enjoy a successful passing day and pick up ample yardage to break this number. It’s unfathomable the Texans listened to all the criticism and then will come out with a stale game plan. Houston also has some receiver injuries and Schultz is a solid “go to” TE….in a game where Stroud wants to air it out but also keep mistakes to a minimum, the Texans TE should get the ball.
Wagers:
Full Game Side: Houston +1.5 vs. Buffalo
Player Prop: HOU QB Stroud OVER 223.5 passing yards
Player Prop: HOU TE Schultz OVER 4 receptions (-115)
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Chicago vs. Carolina
Line: Bears -3
Total: O/U 47.5
Taking the Panthers as home underdogs is tempting, and probably the correct side. However, I’m passing on the game given some injuries with Carolina. I see lots of volatility here but see the Panthers at +148 on the moneyline looks to be an attractive value. My thinking is — if you like Carolina at +3, then strongly consider getting nearly 3:2 on the payoff to win the game. That said, I’ll skip making a selection.
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NY Jets vs. Tennessee
Line: Titans -1.5
Total: O/U 39.5
I’ve gone back and forth on this game all week long. This early, I don’t have enough trust in either team to make a wager on the side. However, I strongly like TEN QB Ward to enjoy a solid game in the first matchup of his second season. I also look for more points from the Titans than is projected, taking advantage of a win on the key number “20.”
This is a big game for the home field Titans, and especially Ward. The Jets can afford to lose a road game, particularly with the revolving door QB situation and Geno Smith returning after a miserable season in Las Vegas. But Tennessee hosting a bad team like the Jets must deliver sparks or the season could spin down the drain quickly. Hence, I believe new OC Drabell (former NYG head coach) will have the Titans passing game primed and ready. After all, the miserable Jets defense led the league in passing touchdowns allowed last season — and even more remarkable, they didn’t have an interception all season in 2025. This looks like a defense even the young and unproven Ward can exploit, and I expect the Titans’ offensive game plan to certainly try.
I lean to Tennessee laying a small number, but given the importance of the game to Ward and the Titans’ offense along with the Jets’ glaring weaknesses, they should pick up player and team offensive stats better than projected in a number of prop categories.
Wagers:
Team Total: Tennessee OVER 19.5 (-115)
Player Prop: TEN QB Ward OVER 201.5 passing yards (-110)
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Arizona vs. LA Chargers
Line: Chargers -9.5
Total: O/U 47.5
I love the direction the well-coached Chargers are going, but this looks like too many points to give any opponent, especially the Cardinals who have enough weapons on offense to keep this within the margin. Line opened at -11.5 and was bet down to -8.5 and now looks like it will settle just shy of double digits.
Arizona is supposedly in a rebuilding year and is forecasted at just 3-4 wins, but vet QB J. Brissett was a surprisingly effective yardage producer last season in the backup role who ended up with the starting job. Combined with a much healthier running game, the Cardinals could keep this competitive. The Chargers also have a new offensive coordinator this season, and so laying a high spread is probably unwise. Cardinals were a woeful 3-14 last season, losing by an average of just under 8 PPG–and with some improvements this season, I’d line this at -7 or 7.5 at highest.
As for Brissett, he likely won’t be the QB the full season with a high draft pick looking over his shoulder and may be with his final team–yet his numbers were prop crushing in most pass stat categories last season. Sure, the Cards were playing from behind in most games, but Brissett went OVER this passing yardage figure in his last 9 straight full games, and 10 of the 12 games he started in 2025. With a legit rushing game, perhaps those numbers decline, still — I like his arm to advance the Arizona offense well over the 221.5 passing yardage on his prop sheet.
Wagers:
Full Game Side: Arizona +9.5 vs. LA Chargers
Player Prop: ARZ QB Brissett OVER 221.5 passing yards (-115)
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More Bets I Like (Late Games):
I’ll take Minnesota -1.5 points at home, as the Vikings should be primed for this important NFC showdown with a fully healthy team for the first time in a long while. I also like new QB K. Murray to enjoy a solid game, backed with the best talent he’s had for his career, and especially a lethal WR corps. Playing at home in a dome against a suspect Packers’ D looks inviting.
Wagers:
Full Game Side: Minnesota -1.5 vs. Green Bay (-115)
Player Prop: MIN QB Murray OVER 221.5 passing yards (-115)
In the MNF matchup, I’ll take Denver +3 points in a divisional rivalry game. Not sure Kansas City has fixed all their problems that led to a dismal 2025 and a rare off year for them, while Denver ended up as the AFC’s top seed and retains most of the talent that enabled them to win 14 games. Seems like a gift to get +3, even with fears of the Chiefs and their well-deserved reputation as a winner. Still, KC has been a somewhat poor ATS team in recent seasons, especially in Sept. and Oct.
Wager:
Full Game Side: Denver +3 vs. Kansas City
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No Picks on These Games:
New Orleans / Detroit (no opinion whatsoever)
Miami / Las Vegas (lean Las Vegas, but only at -3)
Washington / Philadelphia (lean Washington +5)
Dallas / NY Giants (lean NYG +3)
—FINAL LIST OF WEEK 1 WAGERS—
(For those who just want the picks)
Full Game Side: Jacksonville -8.5 vs. Cleveland 9-110)
Full Game Side: Tampa Bay +4 vs. Cincinnati (-120)
First Quarter: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-130)
Player Prop: TB QB Mayfield OVER 232.5 passing yards (-115)
Full Game Side: Indianapolis +4 vs. Baltimore (-115)
Player Prop: IND WR Pierce OVER 48.5 receiving yards (-115)
Full Game Side: Pittsburgh -6 vs. Atlanta (-105)
Full Game Side: Houston +1.5 vs. Buffalo
Player Prop: HOU QB Stroud OVER 223.5 passing yards
Player Prop: HOU TE Schultz OVER 4 receptions (-115)
Team Total: Tennessee OVER 19.5 (-115)
Player Prop: TEN QB Ward OVER 201.5 passing yards (-110)
Full Game Side: Arizona +9.5 vs. LA Chargers
Player Prop: ARZ QB Brissett OVER 221.5 passing yards (-115)
Full Game Side: Minnesota -1.5 vs. Green Bay (-115)
Player Prop: MIN QB Murray OVER 221.5 passing yards (-115)
Full Game Side: Denver +3 vs. Kansas City
Note: in future weeks, I’ll post links to the site. Plus video. Also, look for most picks to be released by Friday night.
From this point forward, picks will be partially posted here, with the full reports at: HERE