NFL FUTURES BET
Here’s Why I’m Betting on Something that Hasn’t Happened in 50 Years
by Nolan Dalla
I’m highly optimistic about the 2026 Minnesota Vikings and their chances of enjoying a successful regular season, and potentially a big postseason, as well.
Accordingly, I’ve bet Minnesota on a number of futures propositions. In this report, I’ll explain why I like the Vikings this year on multiple wagering opportunities.
***Numbers and Value: Season Wins Total***
Let’s begin with Minnesota’s projected “Team Total Wins” which is over/under 8.5. I love the OVER.
The Vikings finished with a 9-8 record last season. That was accomplished with the worst quarterback situation in the NFL. Down the stretch, Minnesota was starting a third-string QB. Nonetheless, they ended up with a winning season in what was perhaps the toughest division in pro football.
Asking the Vikings to win 9 or more games in 2026 seems very reasonable.
I made a large wager on the Vikings to go OVER 8.5 wins at -125.
I’ll get into more of the reasons why after a discussion of these futures prices and their values.
***Numbers and Value: Division Winner***
Let’s continue with Minnesota’s projected odds on winning the NFC North. Prices range from around +350 to as high as +480 (you may find numbers different elsewhere – I scanned the numbers at most major land-based and online sportsbooks).
Raw unfiltered odds would pay exactly 3 to 1 (or +300). That’s because there are four teams in the division and each team has a theoretical 25 percent chance to win. By any metric, the Vikings are widely considered longshots to win their division. This is because all four teams are bona fide playoff contenders, and Minnesota is perceived as somewhat inferior to Chicago, Detroit, and Green Bay.
I disagree with this popular assessment. Even if the Vikings are not quite as good as their three rivals, the value of 4 to 1 (or higher) remains a mighty tempting wager. We can also bet the Vikings to make the playoffs – as the YES currently pays +160. That is also a very tempting bet.
Note that I did not make these bets. That’s because I believe there is better value elsewhere (see more below).
***Numbers and Value: NFC Winner***
Continuing with Minnesota’s projected odds on winning the NFC Conference. Prices currently range from around +1600 to as high as +2300 (again, the odds you find could be different by the time you read this report).
I found 23 to 1 odds (+2300) at one of the local sportsbooks here in Las Vegas. Given that’s probably the best price available, I decided to make that wager rather than the “division winner” futures bet which was discussed earlier.
My reasoning is that if Minnesota wins the NFC North, their odds of also winning the NFC are much better than nearly 6 to 1 among the conference playoff teams. In short, the Vikings would have to win two or three playoff games in order to ultimately become the NFC Champions. My logic goes – if Minnesota is good enough to win a tough division, then they’re also more than capable of winning the NFC.
Is Minnesota a longshot? Well, since there are 16 teams in the conference, the Vikings should be priced at +1600 in the raw unfiltered futures odds. However, I am getting a much better price at +2300 odds. So, even if we agree the NFC is stacked with strong teams and loaded with Super Bowl contenders, I believe the assessment that Minnesota’s odds of winning the NFC are simply wrong, and the Vikings are grossly undervalued by the market.
Hence, I bet the Vikings to win the NFC at 23 to 1 odds. I believe this is the best value on the futures board.
***Will the Vikings Buck History?***
Let’s be clear. I’m betting on something that has not occurred in 50 years. Half a century.
The last time the Minnesota Vikings won the NFC and appeared in a Super Bowl game was five decades ago, in 1976. In fact, Minnesota made four Super Bowl appearances — 1970, 1973, 1974, and 1976 — losing all four times. The Vikings have been to 10 NFC championship games, most recently losing in 2017. So, it’s admittedly been a long drought in Minnesota.
Historical markers are interesting, but they also don’t have any bearing on handicapping and assessing value in sports betting. In fact, since the Vikings do not have a reputation as a Super Bowl pedigree franchise, this likely adds to their attractive odds and betting value – especially among contrarian bettors (like me).
***The 2026 Minnesota Vikings: A Quick Assessment***
I won’t spend too much time here on each player and position. Nor will I regurgitate lots of statistics. You can find that information elsewhere.
What I view as highly favorable about the Vikings is their proven recent history as a good team, an experienced and winning coaching staff, excellent skill position players, a top-five defense, and new energy at the quarterback position. If we combine an assessment that rivals may not be as good this season (I expect Bears to decline, Packers to struggle, and Lions are a mystery after finishing last in the division in 2025), that sets up the Vikings strongly to enjoy a winning season, and perhaps advance deeper into the postseason.
A few facts:
– Minnesota Head Coach Kevin O’Connell has an impressive career W-L record of 43-25 (.632) during the regular season. He debuted with the Vikings in 2022 and posted a stellar 13-4 record (with a new veteran QB, Cousins). After struggling with a 7-10 record in 2023, O’Connell’s Vikings went an even more remarkable 14-3 in 2024 (again, with a new veteran QB, Darnold). After a 9-8 season with a horrible offensive situation, he gets yet another new veteran QB to lead the offense. As for top assistants, offensive coordinator Wes Phillips has been in his role since the 2022 season. And, he’s already proven successful twice with veteran quarterback transfers–and now repeats the ritual. Defense coordinator Brian Flores is widely regarded as one of the best in the game.
– Quarterback Kyler Murray is the biggest question mark and the Vikings’ fate in 2026 is likely on his shoulders and arm. The free-agent signing and acquisition from Arizona showed flashes of brilliance in seven inconsistent seasons with the Cardinals. But he also played on some very bad Arizona teams. This is a much better spot for Murray and his dual pass-run skill set, and he’ll be surrounded by talent on both sides of the ball for the first time in his pro career.
Darkhorse Prediction: Murray competes for MVP prize in 2026.
– The Vikings’ receiver corps could be lethal. This is an elite unit and certainly one of the NFL’s best trios – with WRs Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Jawan Jennings. Murray will have plenty of excellent targets. This group of receivers can make any QB look great, so long as everyone stays healthy.
– Minnesota’s defense ranked 3rd in the NFL in yards allowed last season. They ranked 7th in points allowed. If the Vikings retain anywhere near that level of excellence, with an improved offense this will become a complete team.
– Strength of schedule is a valid concern. Minnesota faces the 11th-toughest schedule based on W-L records from last season. However, this is not insurmountable. Playing in a tough division could make the Vikings a better team going forward as we’ve seen from the “bunching effect” of conference winners in recent years who tend to come from tougher divisions and play more difficult schedules.
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