2026-27 NFL SEASON: WEEK 4 – ANALYSIS AND PICKS
2026-27 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 26
LOSSES — 24
PUSH — 1
NET WIN/LOSS — – $295.
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 10-8-0 (+ $105)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $9,705.
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
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LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
Read last week’s full report HERE.
Full Game Side – ATL +6.5 v. GBP (-110)…W
First-Half Side – ATL +3.5 (-115)…W
Player Prop – ATL RB B. Robinson OVER 24.5 yards (-110)…W
Player Prop: PIT QB Rodgers OVER 22.5 pass completions (-115)…L
Player Prop: PIT QB Rodgers OVER 35 pass attempts (-115)…L
Full-Game Side: DET -6.5 vs. NYJ (-115)…W
Full-Game Side: CAR -2.5 vs. CLE (-115)…L
Player Prop: CAR WR McMillan OVER 60 receiving yards (-115)…L
Full-Game Side: ARZ +8.5 vs. SFO (-110)…W
Player Prop: NOR QB Cousins OVER 211.5 passing yards (-115)…W
Player Prop: HOU RB Montgomery OVER 49.5 rushing yards (-110)…L
Full-Game Side: SEA -7.5 v. WAS (-105)…L
Full-Game Side: DET -6.5 v. NYJ (-110)…W
First Drive Result: NYJ punt (+105)…W
Full-Game Team Total: NYJ UNDER 20.5 (-110)…L
Full-Game Side: MIN -1.5 vs. TBB (-115)…W
Player Prop: BUF TE Kincaid OVER 58.5 receiving yards (-115)…L
First-Half Team Total: Chicago OVER 9.5 points (-105)…W
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WEEK 4 ANALYSIS AND PICKS
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WASHINGTON vs. INDIANAPOLIS (early game in London)
Line: Colts -4.5
Total: O/U 48.5
This line opened at -3.5 and has since moved up to -4.5 (as of Friday night). That significant movement –crossing the 4– will trigger a bet on the underdog.
These two teams, both 1-2, are nearly identical–statistically speaking. Both score roughly 24 points per game and perform slightly below average in yardage. Defensively, they’re close, also.
Journeyman backup QB M. Mariota will start for the Commanders. That skepticism might have kept me off the game until I saw him lead his team to one of the biggest upset surprises of the season, defeating Seattle last week. Anything close to that level of performance by this Mariota offense (versus what was the NFL’s best defense) should keep the live underdog very much in the game, where points could be a factor.
This becomes an easy decision to take the Commanders, despite money moving the line in the other direction.
I also like one player prop. IND RB J. Taylor is a smart bet to go UNDER the high total of 90.5 rushing yards. His YPC continues to decline, falling to just 3.9 per rush, which is below league average. Last season, he ran for 4.9 YPC in the first half of the season (Colts crashed and burned down the stretch). in this matchup, Taylor faces a solid WAS defensive stop unit, which allows just 3.8 YPC, ranking third in the NFL in that category. That could force the Colts into passing more than they like.
Two bets — one underdog Washington and the Colts’ star RB to fall short of his number.
Wagers:
Full-Game Side – WAS +4.5 v. IND (-110)
Player Prop – IND RB J. Taylor UNDER 90.5 rushing yards (-115)
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NEW ENGLAND at BUFFALO
Line: Bills -7
Total: O/U 49
Until I see the Patriots win an important game versus a good team, they’re probably a decent fade. Let’s face it, they just don’t play well when facing talent at least as good, or better. Evidence a Week 1 loss to Seattle (with a backup QB) and being absolutely destroyed by Jacksonville. This week, they’ll face arguably the NFL’s top offense.
Buffalo tried their best to give the game away last week (5 TOs!!!), yet still ended up with a win and cover. The mark of a great team is winning when they don’t play their best. I expect the Bills not to make those same dumb mistakes again, not with the chance to essentially put the AFC East race to rest early in the season. The Bills at 4-0 leading the Patriots at 1-3 probably locks up the division the first week in October. Unreal. Oh, and this is Buffalo’s third-straight home game.
The divide between these two AFC East offenses is like night and day after three weeks. Buffalo is averaging an NFL-best 34 PPG, in contrast to NWE which is averaging just 12 PPG. That’s pathetic. Pats have scored just two offensive TDs in three games. The Bills are also averaging 417 total yards per game while the Patriots grind out 105 yards per game fewer. Sure, Buffalo is vulnerable defensively, but do the Patriots have enough firepower to keep this within a touchdown?
As for player props, I’m wagering on the Patriots’ quarterback OVER, which seems like a contradiction. Look for NWE QB D. Maye OVER 230.5 pass yards. This is an excellent bargain opportunity and price on Maye, who has struggled in these spots and has yet to play a good game. I don’t like the word “overdue” in sports gambling, but one expects the numbers will improve. The Bills’ defense has been torched at times (allowing 31 points to both HOU and DET). Assuming Buffalo rolls up points (and they should) that will likely force Maye into lots of passing, playing catch up. We often see losing teams throw for lots of yards, some of it coming in “trash time.” This looks like one of those situations.
Wagers:
Full-Game Side – BUF -7 vs. NEW (-105)
Player Prop – NEW QB D. Maye OVER 230.5 passing yards (-115)
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SEE ALL THE GAME WRITE-UPS AND PICK EXPLANATIONS AT:
https://www.betcoin.ag/page/nolan-2026-week4/
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FINAL LIST OF WEEK 4 WAGERS:
(For those who just want the picks)
Full-Game Side – WAS +4.5 v. IND (-110)
Player Prop – IND RB J. Taylor UNDER 90.5 rushing yards (-115)
Full-Game Side – BUF -7 vs. NEW (-105)
Player Prop – NEW QB D. Maye OVER 230.5 passing yards (-115)
Full-Game Side – ARZ -2 vs. NYG (-110)
Full-Game Side – MIN -10 vs. MIA (-110)
Full-Game Total – DAL/HOU OVER 48 (-110)
Full-Game Team Total – DAL OVER 22 (-115)
First-Half Team Total – DAL OVER 10 (-125)
First-Half Side – GBP -2.5 vs. TBB (-110)
Full-Game Side – LAR -3 vs. PHI (-120)
Full-Game Side – SEA -7 vs. LAC (-110)
Full-Game Side – CAR +3.5 vs. DET (-110)
Full-Game Team Total – CAR OVER 22.5 (-130)
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