2026-27 NFL SEASON: WEEK 2 – ANALYSIS AND PICKS
2026-27 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 7
LOSSES — 9
PUSH — 1
NET WIN/LOSS — – $340.
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 7-9-1 (- $340)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $9,660.
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
–
PITTSBURGH at NEW ENGLAND
Line: Patriots -5.5
Total: 41.5 points
One thing to look at in early-season Steelers’ games is how coach Mike McCarthy might be changing the complexion of the offense. This could be a very different team than Mike Tomlin’s unit. In recent seasons, we think of Pittsburgh as more of a power rushing team. But if last week’s game-plan is any indication of what to expect, they’re likely to start passing more than the prop numbers indicate.
Consider the fact QB Rodgers had 40 pass attempts, and that was in a game where Pittsburgh led most of the way and didn’t have to pass much (and the Steelers offense didn’t play well, meaning they got less offensive plays). Pittsburgh probably has to throw a similar number of passes this week, especially as the road underdog against an 0-1 team that will be focused on getting back to .500. We presume as the +5.5 dog, they’ll be behind and be forced into more passing.
Hence, I’m betting two Aaron Rodgers props — OVER on both attempts and completions. He was 24/40 last week, and comes into Week 2 with O/Us set at 21.5 and 34.5 respectively. I expect this game will require more passing. In postgame Week 1, Rodgers also got into some testy exchanges with reporters about receiver targets even though they won, so this should be a heavier concentration this week. Looking for lots of short, high-percentage passes from Rodgers against the Patriots. I don’t have an opinion on the yardage, though I lean OVER on that, as well. Best bets are attempts and completions.
Wagers:
Player Prop: PIT QB Rodgers OVER 21.5 pass completions (-115)
Player Prop: PIT QB Rodgers OVER 34.5 pass attempts (-110)
–
ATLANTA at CAROLINA
Line: Panthers -2.5
Total: O/U 43.5
I’ve bounced back and forth on this stinky NFC South matchup (all teams are winless, so far), which means not betting either side. Instead, I see an opportunity on one of the more obscure player props.
ATL will start backup QB C. Rush again this week. He was ineffective against the Steelers last week, but also didn’t make many mistakes. That probably leads to a more rush-heavy game plan for the Falcons in this matchup, and they now face the perfect punching bag soft defense to churn out lots of yards on the ground.
Atlanta uses two RBs named Robinson, and to make things more confusing — both first names start with the letter B. So, be careful if you’re betting Falcon’s RB prop this season. Bijan Robinson is the workhorse. However, let’s not forget Brian Robinson {BRIAN R}, acquired in the offseason, who should get roughly half the number of carries–yet his O/U props are quite a bit lower.
BRIAN R. got 9 carries for 35 yards last week, nothing impressive, and still he went OVER on his props. BRIAN R. is listed at O/U 26 (-115) this week, despite this being a far more favorable situation for running backs. This is a great OVER opportunity. BIJAN R. is listed at O/U 85.5 yards, which is high. That’s where most of the attention goes in Fantasy discussion. It makes no sense that the secondary back is barely a third of that yardage total. Assuming 9 carries again this week (I predict more), even with a 3.0 YPC average (his average is actually 4.2 YPC the last three seasons) that should exceed OVER the number.
Falcons will probably feed main back BIJAN R. the ball 25+ times, but someone else has to take a few carries and that means BRIAN R. will get some game time. This is especially true for what’s expected to be a close game, so the Falcons should be able to run the ball late in the game.
The best reason to bet this player prop is saved for last: Carolina’s defense surrendered a mind-blowing 291 yards to Chicago last week, which is the most for the Bears in 42 years. With backup QB this week, why would the Falcons not go after the Panthers’ glaring weakness, which is a bad rushing defense? If BIJAN gets most of the focus, BRIAN should be able to get his yards. Also worth a look is his rushing attempts if you can find it (the number wasn’t up at the time of this posting).
Wager:
Player Prop: ATL RB Brian Robinson OVER 26.5 rushing yards (-115)
–
JACKSONVILLE at DENVER
Line: Broncos -2.5
Total: O/U 45.5
I’d bet JAX at +3 (a few popped up offshore). But this rates as a pass at +2.5. Jags certainly appear to be the superior team at the moment. Question is, will the Broncos rally at home after coming out so flat in Week 1? Betting markets lean that way. I see better wagering opportunities elsewhere.
Since I’m with JAX if forced to bet the game, I’m making what for me is a very rare DOUBLE team total wager. I’m taking JAX OVER its team total of 22.5. I’m also taking DEN UNDER its team total of 24.5. You can immediately see the appeal of catching two key numbers in what should be a close game — 23 and 24. Indeed, a 24-23 would be a perfect outcome, either way. On a personal note, I recall doing this only one time previously, as rarely do both teams correspond so beautifully as this matchup.
Denver was the AFC’s top seed last season, but they’ve also gone UNDER O/U 24.5 in 8 of their last 10 games. The Broncos don’t roll up big scores, even when they win. QB Nix is returning from injury but even prior to last season’s playoff disappointment, he’d not been putting up big numbers. Nix had only 131 passing yards last week, and hasn’t broken the 200 mark in three straight starts. JAX was the 8th ranked defense in points allowed last season, and #1 against the run. That could be another problem for the Broncos offense and scoring. In short, this doesn’t look like the game Denver will explode on the scoreboard. Even if they win and cover, I’m not confident they will break the 24 mark.
Meanwhile, Jacksonville continues winning and remains the NFL’s least-respected good team. They’re 14-4 with Liam Coen as coach. As for scoring, try this stat: JAGS HAVE SCORED 23+ in 11 straight games (dating back to last season). Total is 22.5 here. Even if we acknowledge Denver’s good defense and points could be harder to come by, that streak is impossible to ignore.
Both totals have reduced vig! It’s like a gift.
Wagers:
Team Total: Jacksonville OVER 22.5 (-105)
Team Total: Denver UNDER 24.5 (-105)
–
SEATTLE at ARIZONA
Line: Seahawks -4
Total: O/U 40.5
Could Arizona upset the Super Bowl champs? That would have been unthinkable just a few weeks ago — but here we are now. Given Seattle remains shorthanded at QB (backup Lock will start in place of injured Darnold), that gives the confident Cardinals a shot. What they did to the Chargers was a bitch slap that no one expected.
I lean Arizona at home, but the better wager here might be the Cardinals kicker. For a few seasons (2021-2023), I was among the first public cappers to really investigate and pound the kicking props — the oddsmaker numbers were simply off and very beatable. Now, other cappers caught on, and the books tightened their numbers. It’s no longer free money. So, I don’t bet them nearly as often (I wagered on 35 kicker props in 2023 alone).
This matchup lends itself to a good day for the Cardinals kicker, Chad Ryland. Arizona has a balanced offense and QB Brissett has shown he can get yards and move the ball downfield. Scoring might be harder to come by against an outstanding Seattle defense, especially in the red zone. This spells more possible FG attempts, especially in a divisional game expected to be somewhat close. If Seattle was primed to blow out the Cardinals, we should pass on kicker props (unless betting them UNDER). In a close, tight game, with an offense that can move the ball, looks for some FG attempts, and makes.
Ryland’s O/U on total points is 6. So, two successful FGs nails it. Obviously, FGs are better than XPs. Last week, Ryland made FOUR FGs and two XPs, and was 4/5 with his only miss a very long 50+ yarder. I expect the Cardinals to play this one close and squeeze points whenever possible. Solid reasons here to bet the OVER (by contrast, the Seattle kicker’s point total is 8, probably too high). Note the elevated vig.
Update: At BETDESERTDIAMOND.COM in Arizona, this prop is at O/U 5.5 (-130), which gives us a win on 6 !
Wager:
Player Prop: ARZ PK Ryland OVER 6 points (-120)
–
Note 1: You can real ALL WRITE-UPS for EVERY GAME this week and MORE PICKS at the following website link: CLICK HERE
https://www.betcoin.ag/page/nolan-2026-week2/
Note 2: I may post something for the SNF and MNF games. But I’ll wait to post those opinions until later. Follow on Facebook.
–
FINAL LIST OF WEEK 2 WAGERS:
(For those who just want the picks)
DET-BUF Second-Half Total: OVER 27.5 points
Player Prop: DET TE Kincaid OVER 49.5 receiving yards
Player Prop: DET RB Gibbs UNDER 95.5 rushing yards
Player Prop: PIT QB Rodgers OVER 21.5 pass completions (-115)
Player Prop: PIT QB Rodgers OVER 34.5 pass attempts (-110)
Full-Game Side: HOUSTON -2.5 vs. Cincinnati (-105)
Full-Game Side: NY Jets +3.5 vs. Green Bay (-105)
Player Prop: TB QB Mayfield OVER 211.5 passing yards (-115)
Player Prop: CLE QB Watson throw interception–YES (-145)
First Quarter Line: Washington +.5 vs. Dallas (-135)
Full-Game Line: WASHINGTON +4.5 vs. Dallas (-115)
Player Prop: ATL RB Brian Robinson OVER 26.5 rushing yards (-115)
Player Prop: NOR QB Shough OVER 231 passing yards (-115)
Team Total: Jacksonville OVER 22.5 (-105)
Team Total: Denver UNDER 24.5 (-105)
Player Prop: ARZ PK Ryland OVER 6 points (-130)
Full-Game: MIA-SFO UNDER 44.5
__________