2025 NFL: WEEK 15 — ANALYSIS AND PICKS
2025 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 124
LOSSES — 101
PUSH — 6
NET WIN/LOSS — +$1000
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 15-7-1 (+$690)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $11,000
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
[Click HERE to read the previous week’s report.]
DAL-DET — First Quarter Moneyline: Detroit (-145)…W
DAL-DET — Game Prop: First team to score: Detroit (-130)…W
DAL-DET — Team Total: Dallas OVER 25.5 points-full game (-115)…W
DAL-DET — Team Total: Detroit OVER 29.5 points-full game (-115)…W
DAL-DET — Game Line: Detroit -3-full game (-105)…W
WAS-MIN — Game LIne: Minnesota -1.5-full game (-115)…W
PIT-BAL — Game Line: Pittsburgh +6-full game (-115)…W
PIT-BAL — First-Half Line: Pittsburgh +3…W
NOR-TB — First Quarter Line: Tampa Bay -2.5…L
MIA-NYJ — First-Half Line: NY Jets +1.5 (-115)…L
MIA-NYJ — Game Line: NY Jets +3…L
CIN-BUF — First-Half Line: Cincinnati +3.5…W
CIN-BUF — Player Prop — CIN RB Brown OVER 12.5 rushing attempts (-105)…L
CIN-BUF — Player Prop — CIN RB Brown OVER 53.5 rushing yards (-115)…L
TEN-CLE — Player Prop — TEN QB Ward OVER 31.5 passing attempts (-105)…L
LAR-ARZ — ARZ QB Brissett OVER 248.5 passing yards (-115)…
DEN-LV — Full-Game Total: UNDER 41…P
DEN-LV — Player Prop — LV QB Smith UNDER 204.5 passing yards (-115)…W
DEN-LV — Player Prop — LV QB Smith to throw an interception-YES (-150)…L
HOU-KC — Game Line: Houston +3.5…W
HOU-KC — Player Prop — HOU PK Fairbairn OVER 1.5 field goals (-115)…W
HOU-KC — Player Prop — KC QB Mahomes to throw an interception-YES (-105)…W
HOU-KC — Player Prop — HOU RB Marks OVER 13.5 rushing attempts (-120)…W
ANALYSIS AND PICKS FOR WEEK 15:
ATLANTA vs. TAMPA BAY [TNF]
PASS–No plays
Can the Bucs really be trusted to cover versus a division rival after losing outright at home (as 8-point favorites!) to the dismal New Orleans Saints? Tampa Bay has dropped 5 of their last 7 games, with their only two wins coming against New Orleans and an ugly non-cover against Arizona. There’s nothing to inspire confidence with the Bucs laying this many points. To be fair, their poor play is partially due to injuries. That remains in flux for a short week and a Thursday night game. Unfortunately, their opponent is just as futile recently. Since upsetting Buffalo back in mid-October, Atlanta has lost 7 of 8 games, the only victory versus the Saints. QB Kirk Cousins since taking over in Week 11, hasn’t helped the Falcons’ offense. Both teams appear to be a mess, though the Bucs remain favorites to win the NFL’s weakest division, likely by default. Atlanta’s loss eliminated them from playoff consideration last week. Who knows what they’ll bring to this road game. Sometimes, the best decision is not to bet at all. I’m making a rare pass and not placing any wager on this uncertain matchup between two badly struggling teams who have shown no consistency.
NY JETS vs. JACKSONVILLE
Player Prop — JAX QB to throw an interception-NO (-130)
Player Prop — JAX QB Lawrence pass attempts UNDER 30.5 (-115)
Let’s get right to these two player props:
(1) Why am I betting that JAX QB Lawrence will NOT throw an interception in this game? That seems like an odd wager to make, which is very volatile given how we can’t predict bad throws or deflected passes. Wagering “YES” on interception props can be justified, especially with weak offenses, inexperienced QBs, and bad offensive lines. Wagering “NO” is riskier given the way modern passing games now dominate offenses. Well, the reason to expect Lawrence to NOT toss an interception is first and foremost based on the fact THE JETS HAVE PLAYED 13 games this season and have ZERO interceptions! That is almost impossible to believe, but the Jets defense has no pick offs. Yeah, you can look it up. So, we have a defense that is certainly in statistical outlier territory. Yet, there most be something odd to the way NYJ DBs and CBs are playing in coverage that doesn’t produce picks. Let’s add one more very good reason to expect no interceptions from the Jaguars to the Jets. JAX is a -13.5 point favorite. This is a game line that likely indicates the Jaguars won’t have to take many chances, nor throw much to win. Certainly, the Jaguars appear destined to go very run-heavy in the second-half, especially if they’re leading, as predicted. So, fewer passes and most likely holding the lead is the ideal script for a conservative offensive game plan, and below-average passing numbers for Lawrence. This plays into the second prop bet, which is…..
(2) QB Lawrence’s pass attempt projection hasn’t been downshifted enough given this game matchup. In the Jags’ win streak, they haven’t been forced to throw and instead have gone with a more balanced attack. Lawrence’s pass attempts show 30 – 27 – 30 – 22 -23 in his last five games. Note that when JAX is a dog and playing from behind, this is a very pass heavy team, evidenced by 40+ pass attempts vs. Rams, Seahawks, Texans, and Bengals (games where JAX struggled). We presume the Jags will win here by two TDs, and they won’t be forced to depart from the game plan that has produced all their recent success. Also note that Jets’ rank #5 in the fewest pass attempts per game by opponents this season (average 29 PPG). Opponents know they don’t have to throw as much to win. Interesting side note: JAX ranks #1 is MOST pass attempts per game by opponents, at 38 PPG, which is 9 passes more than the Jets.
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Final Picks for Week 15 (For those who just want the picks):
NYJ-JAX — Player Prop: JAX QB to throw an interception-NO (-130)
NYJ-JAX — Player Prop: JAX QB Lawrence pass attempts UNDER 30.5 (-115)
CLE-CHI — First-Half Line: Cleveland + 5.5 (-115)
CLE-CHI — Full-Game Line: Cleveland +7.5
ARZ-HOU — Player Prop: QRZ QB Brissett OVER 233.5 passing yards (-115)
ARZ-HOU — Player Prop: HOU WR Collins OVER 5.5 receptions (-120)
ARZ-HOU — Player Prop: HOU PK Fairbairn OVER 1.5 (-165)
WAS-NYG — Full-Game Line: NY Giants -2.5
BAL-CIN — First-Half Line: Cincinnati +1
BAL-CIN — Full-Game Line: Cincinnati +3 (-120)
BAL-CIN — Full-Game Total: UNDER 52.5 (-115)
BUF-NWE — First-Half Line: New England +.5
LAC-KC — Player Prop: KC QB Mahomes to throw an interception-YES (-105)
CAR-NOR — First-Half Line: Carolina – .5
CAR-NOR — Full Game Line: Carolina -2.5
MIN-DAL — First-Half Team Total: Dallas OVER 13.5 points (-120)
MIN-DAL — Player Prop: MIN QB McCarthy OVER 193.5 passing yards (-115)
MIA-PIT — First-Half Line: Pittsburgh -1.5
IMPORTANT NOTE:
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