2025 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 88
LOSSES — 78
PUSH — 0
NET WIN/LOSS — +$55
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 6-8-0 (-$295)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $10,055
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
[Click HERE to read the previous week’s report.]
LVR/DEN: Player Prop — LVR QB Smith OVER .5 interceptions (-165)…W
LVR/DEN: Player Prop — DEN TE Engram UNDER 3.5 recepts (-115)…W
ATL/IND: Full-Game Line — Atlanta +6.5…W
ATL/IND: First-Half Line — Atlanta +3.5…W
ATL/IND: Full-Game Total — ATL/IND UNDER 48.5…L
BAL/MIN: Full-Game Line – Baltimore -4 (-105)…W
NWE/TB: Player Prop — NWE QB Maye OVER 21.5 completions (-115)…L
NOR/CAR: Full-Game Line — Carolina -5.5…L
NOR/CAR: Player Prop — CAR RB Hubbard OVER 20.5 yards (-115)…L
NYG/CHI: Full-Game Total — NYG/CHI UNDER 47…W
BUF/MIA: Player Prop — BUF QB Allen to score touchdown–YES (-125)…L
ARZ/SEA: First-Half Line — Arizona +3.5 (even)…L
ARZ/SEA: First-Half Team Total — Arizona OVER 9.5…L
ARZ/SEA: Full-Game Line — Arizona +7…L
THOUGHTS THIS WEEK:
The toughest thing in sports handicapping is jumping back into action following a losing week. All the work we’ve done recently not only produced zero profits, we also lost money. I admit to going through multiple periods of frustration — and even self-doubt — over the years. Dealing with losses isn’t easy, and if it is easy, then you might be in the wrong vocation. Moreover, if and when losses become habitual and irrefutable, then it’s time to change capping and research tactics (or perhaps pause or even quit betting altogether). All serious bettors who I know, and this includes very successful sports gamblers over a long period of time, have gone through seemingly endless losing streaks, questioned themselves, and some have even scaled back wagering or taken extended breaks.
Some results and outcomes make no sense whatsoever. Take last Sunday’s Buffalo-Miami game. I thought the Dolphins were the right side getting +9.5 points in a divisional game. However, nobody expected Miami to dominate the game and win by double digits. The score at the end of the 3rd quarter was Miami leading 16-0. If anyone posted an advance prediction that forecasted anything close to that shocker, I’d sure like to see it. Send me a link. I’m serious.
Another game that made no sense was Carolina shitting the bed at home against New Orleans. Perhaps the Panthers were a shaky favorite. But the 1-8 Saints looked awful most of the season. I didn’t see anyone forecast a New Orleans upset by 10 points. Again — show me who called this final result. I want to see it.
Losing games is all part of betting. But when the team we bet on doesn’t even show up and gets destroyed, then something’s wrong. And if it’s happening often, something is REALLY wrong. I’ve been trying to figure out how and why some teams come out of nowhere and play great games after seemingly being outclassed, outcoached, and left for dead by the betting public. If I can ever figure this out, I’ll be sure and share it. In the meantime, I’ll be more careful and cautious about what I post here. If there was a lesson learned, I’m not sure what it is. But I’m still learning.
Now, on to NFL Week #11.
ANALYSIS AND PICKS FOR WEEK 11:
NYJ vs. NWE [TNF]
Team Total: NYJ OVER 6.5 points (first-half) (-130)
The Jets are a mess right now, but they are riding a surprising two-game win streak with wins versus Cincy and Cleveland. Both wins were shaky efforts, but a win is a win in the NFL and that success should spark confidence for the big underdog in this AFC East matchup. NYJ are listed as 12-point dogs with a team total of only 14.5 points (for the full-game), which is insultingly low for any NFL team. Admittedly, the NYJ are wildly inconsistent, but have posted some decent figures. They’ve scored 20+ points in 5/9 games this season. That figure is actually 4/9 (if we subtrack special teams scores). I still lean OVER on the Jets for the full game, but the superior value looks to be going OVER 6.5 and catching a win on the key number — 7 for the first half. Obviously, we’re aiming for just one NYJ touchdown plus the conversion to cash this team prop. NYJ average a woeful 8.1 PPG in 1H this season. New England’s defense allows 10.8 PPG in 1H this season. Even with all the Jets’ issues, riding a mini-win streak combined with some possibility the Patriots could be flat here, adding in the division rivalry, and a short prep week all combine to make this a compelling wager. Unless there are highly unusual circumstances, such as miserable weather conditions and/or a terrible starting QB, I think most NFL teams are automatic bets at OVER 6.5 priced at -130.
[To be updated between Wed-Sat]
Final Picks for Week 11 (For those who just want the picks):
NYJ/NWE: Team Total — NYJ OVER 6.5 points [first-half] (-130)…W
Full-Game Line — Washington +3 vs. Miami
Full-Game Line — Green Bay -7 vs. NY Giants (-115)
Full-Game Line — Carolina +3.5 vs. Atlanta
Full-Game Line — Jacksonville +3 vs. LA Chargers (-115)
HOU-TEN — Player Prop — HOU RB Chubb OVER 32.5 rushing yards (-115)
BAL-CLE — Player Prop — BAL QB Jackson UNDER 37.5 rushing yards (-110)
CIN-PIT — Player Prop — CIN TE Fant OVER 23.5 yards (-115)
SFO-ARZ — Player Prop — ARZ PK Ryland OVER 6.5 points (-105)
KC-DEN — Full-Game Total — Kansas City/Denver UNDER 45
First-Quarter Line — Cincinnati +.5 vs. Pittsburgh (-130)
First-Half Line — Cincinnati +3.5 vs. Pittsburgh (-120)
Full-Game Line — Dallas -3 vs. Las Vegas
IMPORTANT NOTE:
Be sure and visit BETCOIN.AG
CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week — up through Sat. night.