********************************************
2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 112
LOSSES — 101
PUSH — 2
NET WIN/LOSS — – $540
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 8-5 (+ $250)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL; $9,460.
********************************************
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 16):
Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 16 REPORT HERE
Player Prop: HOU RB Mixon OVER 60.5 rushing yards…{L}
Player Prop: HOU PK Fairbairn OVER 6.5 points scored (-130)…{W}
Full-Game Side: TEXANS +3.5…{L}
Player Prop: PIT/BAL OVER 46.5 yards — longest successful field goal (-112)…{W}
Full Game Side: BENGALS -8…{W}
Two-Team Teaser: BENGALS -2 / RAVENS -1 (-125)…{W}
Player Prop: QB DANIELS OVER 30.5 pass attempts…{W}
Full-Game Total: ATL-NYG UNDER 43…{W}
Team Total: FALCONS UNDER 26.5 points…{L}
Full-Game Side: BUCCANEERS -3.5…{L}
Team Total: BUCCANEERS OVER 26.5 points…{L}
Player Prop: RATTLER UNDER 224.5 passing yards…{W}
IMPORTANT NOTE:
Be sure and visit BETCOIN CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week.
QUICK THOUGHT #1:
Do short weeks favor offenses or defenses?
I wanted to know more about this, given there are two Wednesday games, which is is so unusual. So, I did some research. I was able to gather data from multiple online sources, and update these numbers with more current data from the current season.
More than a decade of results show that NFL teams average scoring about 23 points on Thursday games (which is the primary “short week” day of the week). Contrast this with the usual Sunday-Monday games, which are averaging 22 points this season (note that the high mark of scoring was back in 2020, when teams averaged nearly 25 PPG). However, given there are far fewer Thursday games, the average tends to be skewed by some high-scoring outliers. So, the 1 point differential may not be statistically significant.
Bottom Line: NFL scoring isn’t impacted by shorter (or longer) preparation times.
QUICK THOUGHT #2:
For every game, the goal of handicapping should be to identify the best bet of all the possibilities. Yet, most of the time, we fail to do this. Perhaps I should clarify–that *I* fail to do this, even though I try. Even the winning bets might not have been the best wager we could have made. Why not? It’s simple. The answer is *time.* Identifying a best bet takes considerable amounts of time. With hundreds of props on each game every week, it would take many hours to weigh all the possibilities an determine the probabilities of an outcome on every single proposition.
I believe almost every game is bet-able, that is, if you have the time to put in the work. The bet might be a yardage prop, or a quarter bet, or a total, or something else that’s not as popular as picking a side. With hundreds of possible wagers and various odds, at least a few will be a little off. It’s our objective to identify mis-priced odds and then bet on those (perceived) advantages.
This week, I’ll try to identify at least one bet on every NFL game:
PLAYS FOR WEEK 17:
KANSAS CITY VS. PITTSBURGH (WED.)
Steelers kicker Chris Boswell leads the NFL in scoring. He’s scored 7+ points in 11 of 15 games this season. Usually, good kickers on winning teams are priced at O/U 7.5 points (-110). However, most weeks we see Boswell priced at O/U 6.5 points, despite his accuracy and the outstanding season he is having. There’s been a slight adjustment depending on which sportsbook you use, as STN here in Las Vegas listed Boswell at 6.5 (-157). But I checked Westgate, and it’s only 6.5 (-130). The -130 price is very bet-able, whereas the -157 is not. I’ll continue riding Boswell’s leg (wait, that doesn’t sound right) so long as he’s priced in the same range with lesser kickers on mediocre teams. Also note that Boswell has made 12 of 14 attempts beyond 50+ yards, despite kicking in Pittsburgh (a stadium not known for being friendly to long FG kickers). The Steelers have also been sluggish offensively the last few weeks and they face a good Chiefs defense, which could create more FG attempts. Remember, on OVER kicking props, we want ATTEMPTS (and mostly FGs). Nobody in the NFL has been better this season, as Boswell has made 39/42 FG attempts this season, which averages out to nearly 3 per game. It also looks like the weather will be somewhat mild in Pittsburgh today for this time of year — slight chance of flurries, but no wind. Boswell to the moon.
Pick:
Player Prop: PIT KICKER BOSWELL OVER 6.5 POINTS (-130)
BALTIMORE VS. HOUSTON (WED.)
We’re not supposed to get emotional when betting, but I can’t contain my reaction to the sluggish Texans after betting on them several times, yet so often getting screwed by their own stupidity and self-destruction. This team makes more mental mistakes and unforced errors than any team in the league–aside perhaps from the awful NY teams. The only reason they’re heading to the playoffs is because they’re fortunate to be playing in such a weak division with three sub-par teams. Houston’s problem, and something I think will hold them back, is coaching–especially the offense (there’s some grumbling that Stroud is being forced into OC Slowik’s system and is having trouble adjusting). Watching him regress this season–QB Stroud is too much of a gunslinger, who is overconfident, and makes way too many mistakes. That means interceptions. He’s even been quoted many times saying he’s going to make throws that are risky because that’s “who he is.” So, I’ve bet C.J. Stroud to throw 1+ interceptions in this game (sometimes referred to as a YES/NO prop on the question: “Will Stroud throw an interception?”) The lay price is only -115, and I expect he’ll air it out again this week and make at least one stupid throw. Stroud threw 2 interceptions last week, and now has 11 for the season. This may be priced within the range of probability, but since Tank Dell is out with injury, he’s lost his favorite target (98 receptions this season–now out of the year). The Texans also have an offensive line that can’t block. Houston’s play-calling is also ridiculous at times, often throwing long balls on short-yardage situations, which is highly risky and creates a good situation for interceptions.
Pick:
Player Prop: HOU QB STROUD TO THROW AN INTERCEPTION–YES (-115)
::::: more to come – please check back later :::::
FINAL PICKS FOR WEEK 17:
(For those who just want the picks):
Player Prop: PIT KICKER BOSWELL OVER 6.5 POINTS (-130)…{L}
Player Prop: HOU QB STROUD TO THROW AN INTERCEPTION–YES (-115)…{W}
O/U: SEATTLE/CHICAGO OVER 42.5 (full game)…{L}
Full-Game Team Total: SEATTLE OVER 22.5 points (-120)…{L}
Full Game Side: NEW ENGLAND +5.5
Full-Game Team Total: DENVER OVER 23.5 points
Player Prop: DEN QB NIX OVER 228.5 passing yards (-115)
Full-Game Side: LA RAMS -6
Full-Game Side: CAROLINA +8
First-Half Team Total: DALLAS OVER 7 (-120)
Full-Game Team Total: DALLAS OVER 15.5 (-115)
Game Prop: BUFFALO TO SCORE FIRST AND WIN THE GAME {BOTH MUST OCCUR] (-117)
Player Prop: IND QB RICHARDSON UNDER 46.5 rushing yards (-115)
Full-Game Side: LAS VEGAS -1
First-Half Moneyline: LAS VEGAS (-117)
Player Prop: LVR ABDULLAH OVER 26.5 rushing yards
Player Prop: JAX WR THOMAS JR. OVER 76.5 pass receiving yards (-115)
Player Prop: CLE QB THOMPSON-ROBINSON OVER .5 interceptions (-165)
Full-Game Side: WASHINGTON -3.5
Full-Game Side: DETROIT -3.5 (contingent upon Minnesota winning on the previous day)
Player Prop: DET RB Gibbs OVER 30.5 receiving yards (-115)
IMPORTANT NOTE:
Be sure and visit BETCOIN CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week.