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2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 97
LOSSES — 88
PUSH — 2
NET WIN/LOSS — -$685
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 3-7 (- $575)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL; $9,315.
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ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 14):
Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 14 REPORT HERE
Player Prop — GB vs. DET: LIONS RB J. JACOBS OVER 68.5 rushing yards (-115)…{L}
Full-Game Total — ATL vs. MIN OVER 45.5 points…{W}
Player Prop — LV-TB: LV QB O’CONNELL OVER 235.5…{L}
Moneyline — CLE vs. PIT: STEELERS (-275)…{W}
Full-Game Side — CLE vs. PIT: STEELERS -6.5…{W}
Full-Game Side — SEA vs. ARZ: ARIZONA -2.5…{L}
Moneyline — CHI vs. SFO: BEARS (+165)…{L}
Full-Game Side — CHI vs. SFO: BEARS +3.5…{L}
First-Half Side — CIN vs. DAL: COWBOYS +3.5 (-120)…{L}
Full-Game Side — CIN vs. DAL: COWBOYS +5.5…{L}
IMPORTANT NOTE:
Be sure and visit BETCOIN CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week.
THIS WEEK’S ANALYSIS AND PICKS (WEEK 15)
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THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: RAMS VS. 49ERS
Many of us thought San Francisco was burned toast after a couple of dismal performances in Weeks 12-13, amplified by a losing record and last-place standing in the NFC West. Then to our surprise, the 49ers finally showed up and played their best game of the season in a thorough ass-kicking of the Bears last week. Hello??? Will the real 49ers please stand up?
Fact is, San Francisco remains burdened by injuries. This is not the same team we saw as a Super Bowl contender in 2023. I’m also going to project the 49ers won’t play nearly as well as we saw in the Bears game, but won’t be as bad as the team we saw get steamrolled by Buffalo and Green Bay, either. That means San Francisco lands somewhere in the middle and now faces its division rival in what looks to be a “must win” game for both teams.
Conversely, the LA Rams have been the far more consistent team lately, winners of 6 of their last 8, and those two losses were to Philadelphia and Miami. Along the way, the Rams have defeated the 11-2 Vikings, 10-3 Bills, and 8-5 Seahawks. Meanwhile, please show me a quality win by the 49ers, so far (okay, maybe the first game beating Seattle). The Rams won the first game hosting SFO, and that was when LA was short-manned. Now, things are reversed and the Rams look to be the more solid team.
Giving the Rams +3 makes this an easy choice. Getting +2.5 (which was the early line) isn’t nearly as attractive. Given the 49ers were -3.5 point favorites last week hosting floundering Chicago which had just fired their coach, this sure seems to be strange number given the Rams are a much tougher opponent. Division rivalries tend to be good spots to take underdogs anyway, so when we also get the more consistent team with the better record that’s also racked up more quality wins, that makes the wager much easier.
Let’s also note that San Francisco has been an underachiever all season long, as evidenced by a poor 5-8 ATS mark. Perhaps it’s the old post-Super-Bowl-jinx and hangover. While the Niners were hit hard with injuries this season, and that adds to their problems, RB C. McCaffrey now out for the season is probably the final nail in the 2024 49ers coffin. It’s one thing for them to bounce back and beat a Bears team last week that had lost six straight, but it’s quite another to try and slow down one of the best offensive trios in the game — Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, and Cooper Kupp — who are healthy again and in top form. Even if the Niners play a good game, I say it’s still going to be close, and the dog should cover getting the added FG on the spread.
Picks:
First-Half Side — LAR vs. SFO: RAMS +1.5 (-110)
Full-Game Side — LAR vs. SFO: RAMS +3 (-120)
WHICH TEAM WILL SCORE THE MOST POINTS THIS WEEK?
My final pick of the week (most likely–check back Sunday AM) is an unusual flyer of a wager based purely on value. There are sportsbooks offering props on which team will score the highest number of points. The usual favorites are Detroit, Buffalo, and Baltimore–all with great offenses. However, I have a feeling that if things break right for the Panthers, they could enjoy their best game of 2024 and highest output of the season this week hosting Dallas. “Meaningless” games can also produce strange results, as offenses with nothing to lose throw caution to the wind. We’ve seen this happen before–last season in Weeks 15-18 the highest-scoring teams in three of those weeks were the Raiders (56), Browns (37), and Saints (48). Yes, crazy things happen in late season games, especially in match-ups with mixed motivations. Theoretically, each NFL team is 32-1 to have the highest point total. The Panthers are priced at 39-1, which is considerably higher than average. We can probably toss out half the teams in the league which are playing badly, injured, and may face bad weather conditions in December. However, Carolina is finally playing well, especially on offense, is at home, is healthy, and faces an opponent coming off a devastating loss on a short week that now must travel with nothing to play for. If Carolina is leading in the second half of this game, I expect they would want to show off a bit and run up the score. Nothing would inspire as much confidence from long-suffering Carolina fans as a big win at home against Dallas, even though the Cowboys aren’t the team everyone usually thinks of. Carolina isn’t playing like a 3-10 team right now. They’ve hit 20+ points in 4/5 games. QB B. Young is playing much better late in the season, and could be given an opportunity to show off with a broader playbook and game plan, that is, if the game breaks correctly for the Panthers. Oh, and let’s add the obvious–Dallas’ defense sucks, allowing 28 PPG this season, which ranks next to last in the NFL. I’m glad to fade a bad defense even though the offense we’re betting on has often struggled with inconsistencies (but remains on an upward trajectory). Obviously, this is a longshot wager; Carolina isn’t properly priced here given the unique circumstances of this game. I’d list them around 20-1, at the highest, and we’re getting double that number.
Pick:
Special Prop: Highest Scoring Team Week 15 — Panthers (+3900)
FINAL PICKS FOR WEEK 15:
(For those who just want the picks):
First-Half Side — LAR vs. SFO: RAMS +1.5 (-110)…{W}
Full-Game Side — LAR vs. SFO: RAMS +3 (-120)…{W}
BAL vs. NYG: Ravens RB Henry UNDER 102.5 rushing yards (-115)
BAL vs. NYG: Giants Kicker Gano OVER 4.5 points
NYJ vs. JAX: First-Half: Jaguars +2.5
NYJ vs. JAX: Full Game: Jaguars +3.5 (-120)
KC vs. CLE: Team Total Browns UNDER 20.5 (-120)
PIT vs. PHI: 1st Qtr. Steelers +.5 (half point) {-120)
PIT vs. PHI: Steelers +5.5
PIT vs. PHI: Steelers Kicker Boswell OVER 6.5 points
DAL vs. CAR: Cowboys Kicker Aubrey UNDER 7.5 points (-120)
NWE vs. ARZ: Moneyline Cardinals (-260)
ATL vs. LVR: 1st Half Raiders +3 (-115)
ATL vs. LVR: Raiders Kicker Carlson OVER 6.5 points
Special Prop: Highest Scoring Team Week 15 — Panthers (+3900)
IMPORTANT NOTE:
Be sure and visit BETCOIN CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week.