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Posted by on Nov 23, 2014 in Blog | 4 comments

Yellow Tail Sunday





For the first time since I launched this website (in August 2012), my football betting bankroll has been completely wiped out.  Hence, this is the first football Sunday in more than two and a half years where I am NOT posting my weekly picks.

I could go off in many different directions about this — from expressing humor to outrage (sometimes one and the same).  I could make lame-ass excuses or complain about my bad luck.  But my decline and ultimate defeat as a football bettor for this period all boils down pretty much to three things:

1.  I lack discipline.  I’m unable to control my emotions.  “Tilt” is my middle name.    

2.  Ridiculous NFL rules (pass interference, for example) are now so subjective that the games have become wildly unpredictable.

3.  Pro football sides and totals have become so difficult to predict that even many of the best handicappers are now struggling, so I’m in good company.

Today, I did make a few wagers.  I won’t even bother posting them here.  I’m done with that for now, at least until the playoffs or Super Bowl when I might revisit the possibility.

This season’s losses put me in squarely the red for the three seasons that I’ve been posting NFL picks here at my site.  I’m currently down about $3,500 — a good part of which is due to $15,000 paid out in juice.  But it’s more than just the vig.  And for that reason, I must now face the music.  My handicapping has not been sharp, and at times has been horrid.  Things that used to work in the past are no longer producing a profit.  It’s time to either adjust or get out.

Since the start of the 2012 season, I’ve posted more than 650 picks.  The best handicappers in the world hit perhaps 55 percent over the long haul.  However, I have not come close to achieving that.  Hence, when I was winning it was due to being highly selective on specialty wagers and practicing sound money management.  This year, I blew all that.

Dating back to 1998, when I first began posting picks at various open websites (AOL SPORTS, SPORTS FAN RADIO, MADJACK SPORTS, etc.), I’ve now had 12 winning football seasons and 5 losing seasons.  This was the second worst season I’ve suffered, 2002 being the worst ever.

That said, I shall tread with caution and continue to make wagers, albeit on a smaller scale.  I’ll use this downtime constructively to reevaluate and learn, and return again in 2015 for another season if I feel confident enough to do so.

Until then, good luck with your NFL wagers.



  1. nolan,
    wondering if you considered betting college football? there are many more games and hence, more opportunities.

  2. Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

    Hell no!

  3. Well at least your futures bets are looking good 🙁

    Full Disclosure – I had Stanford over Utah 2 weeks ago, so I feel your pain.

  4. Takes class to write a piece like this, Nolan. Best of luck when you jump back in!

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