Nolan Dalla

Week #9 — NFL Analysis and Picks

 

 

Let’s get straight to this week’s picks, with a short summary on each selection:

Kansas City -2 vs. Miami (risking $220 to win $200)

I always like betting on good teams coming off an embarrassing loss and it doesn’t get any lower than losing by double digits to the Broncos (Mahomes had the flu last week).  Besides, Miami hasn’t beaten anybody decent yet.

Washington +3 vs. New England at -120 (risking $240 to win $200)

Yeah, Washington might have mailed in the season with trades this week.  However, there’s no way this inconsistent Patriot team that has trouble scoring should be laying -3 points.

Seattle +6 vs. Baltimore (risking $220 to win $200)

Two first-place teams face off in Baltimore.  I expect a close game and this is a lot of points to give a 5-2 team.  The line is probably jaded by the Ravens’ demolition of Detroit a few weeks ago.  Seahawks should stay within the margin.

Minnesota +3.5 vs. Atlanta (risking $220 to win $200)

Newly acquired backup QB starts for Minnesota, which moved the line.  But I don’t think the Falcons should be laying -3.5 to anyone right now.  There’s enough talent on the Vikings to win outright.

Tampa Bay +3 vs. Houston (risking $220 to win $200)

I’m ditching the Texans after they let me down in that disgraceful effort in a loss at Carolina last week.  They’re not turning the corner.  They’re still the Texans.  Give me the points.

New Orleans -8 vs. Chicago (risking $330 to win $300)

The Saints should roll in this one.  Chicago’s junkyard un-drafted QB was a nice story, but he struggled vs. an awful pass defense (Chargers) last week and now faces a much better unit in his second straight on the road.  New Orleans rolled up 38 points last week.  Good spot for them to continue building confidence.

O/U: Indy / Carolina UNDER 44 (risking $220 to win $200)

The Panthers’ offensive numbers are dismal, and even though the Colts defense is horrible, I can’t see Carolina putting up many points.  However, the Panthers’ defense has shown some talent and probably will keep this one close.  I see a game of FGs here.

First Half: Washington +1.5 at -115 (risking $230 to win $200)

I like betting against inconsistent teams on offense in the first half.  NWE ranks 29th in first half scoring this season, at just 6.9 points on average.  Washington is +3 points higher (9.8).

First Half: Seattle +3.5 at -120 (risking $240 to win $200)

The hook draws me in.

First Half: LA Rams +1.5 (risking $220 to win $200)

Should the Packers really be laying points in the first half?  They rank dead last in the NFL at just 4.1 PPG in 1H this season.

First Half: Tampa Bay +1.5 at -115 (risking $230 to win $200)

The Bucs are always a shaky bet, but I’m fading Houston when they’re laying points until I see more scoring and consistency.

First Half Total: Tampa Bay / Houston OVER 19.5 (risking $220 to win $200)

Seems a contradiction from the previous wager (and logic behind it).  I like capturing a win on 20.  I can see a 10-10 halftime score.  I’ll be very pleased with that result.

Team Total: Green Bay UNDER 21.5 points at -120 (risking $240 to win 200)

Everything about Green Bay’s anemic offense sucks, from the personnel to the play calling.  The Packers have not scored above 20 points in five straight weeks.

Kicker Prop: Joseph (MIN) OVER 5.5 points at -120 (risking $240 to win $200)
Kicker Prop: Grupe (NOR) OVER 6.5 points at -125 (risking $250 to win $200)
Kicker Prop: McLaughlin (TB) OVER 5.5 points at -135 (risking $270 to win $200)
Kicker Prop: Pineiro (CAR) OVER 5.5 points at -120 (risking $240 to win $200)
Kicker Prop: Carlson (LVR) OVER 5.5 points at -130 (risking $260 to win $200)
Kicker Prop: Zuerlein (NYJ) OVER 5.5 points at -120 (risking $240 to win $200)

Kicker Prop (added):  Gay (IND) OVER 6.5 points at -115 (risking $230 to win $200)

All of these wagers are based on some of the things I discussed in last week’s write-up.  I want to bet on teams that struggle in the red zone.  The 5.5 lines are especially attractive (and note that since I started writing about this, other sites have jumped on them, and the vig prices are changing — I knew this would happen!)

Teaser: Cleveland -4 / New Orleans -2.5 at -120 (risking $600 to win $500)

Arizona went from +8.5 to +11 at Cleveland.  That’s based on the Cardinals’ QB change.  When the line his 10 I teased it, expecting it could reach -11.5  New Orleans is the obvious other link here on the teaser, playing awful Chicago.

 

MY WESTGATE SUPERCONTEST PICKS – WEEK #9

[Note that these lines differ from above because they’re based on the close as of Wednesday night at Westgate]

TICKET 1 (22-15-3)
Minnesota +5
Seattle +6
Cleveland -8
Washington +3.5
Kansas City -1.5

TICKET 2 (22-17-1)
Minnesota +5
Seattle +6
Cleveland -8
Washington +3.5
Kansas City -1.5

TICKET 3 (22-17-1)
Minnesota +5
Seattle +6
Cleveland -8
Washington +3.5
New Orleans -8.5

TICKET 4 (21-17-2)
Minnesota +5
Seattle +6
Cleveland -8
Washington +3.5
New Orleans -8.5

TICKET 5 (19-20-1)
Minnesota +5
Seattle +6
Cleveland -8
Washington +3.5
Kansas City -1.5

TICKET 6 (18-20-2)
Minnesota +5
Seattle +6
Cleveland -8
Washington +3.5
Las Vegas -1.5

TICKET 7 (20-19-1)
Minnesota +5
Seattle +6
Cleveland -8
Washington +3.5
Kansas City -1.5

 

Here’s my latest article at SurvivorSweat.com on the $9.4 million Circa contest:

IS THIS THE TOUGHEST WEEK IN THE CIRCA SURVIVOR CONTEST?
SAINTS AND BROWNS EXPECTED TO BE CO-CONSENSUS CONTEST FAVORITES

 

*****************************************************
2023 NFL WAGERING RECORD
77 — Wins
83 — Losses
2 — Pushes
Starting Bankroll: $10,000.
Current Bankroll: $6,115.
Net Gain/Loss: – $3,885.
Last Week: 7 wins – 7 losses (- $237.)

11-Year Comprehensive Record (2012-present):
CLICK HERE
*****************************************************

 

Last Week’s Picks:

Will Saints or Colts Make a FG in the 1Q — YES at even (risking $100 to win $100)….LOST
Kicker Player Prop: Grupe (NOR) OVER 6.5 points at even (risking $150 to win $150)….WON
Kicker Player Prop: Gay (IND) OVER 6.5 points at -115 (risking $172 to win $150)….WON
WR Player Prop: C. Kirk (JAX) OVER 54.5 receiving yards at -120 (risking $120 to win $100)….LOST
Houston -3 at -115 vs. Carolina (risking $345 to win $300)….LOST
Tennessee +3 (buying half point) at +130 vs. Atlanta (risking $260 to win $200)….WON
First Half: Tennessee +1.5 at -120 (risking $180 to win $150)….WON
Kicker Player Prop: Folk (TEN) OVER 5.5 points (risking $165 to win $150)….LOST
RB Player Prop: B. Washington (WAS) UNDER 39.5 rushing yards (risking $110 to win $100)….LOST
NY Jets -2.5 vs. NY Giants (risking $220 to win $200)….WON
Minnesota -1 vs. Green Bay (risking $165 to win $150)….WON
Denver +7 vs. Kansas City (risking $110 to win $100)….WON
Kicker Player Prop: Santos (CHI) OVER 5.5 points at -115 (risking $172 to win $150)….LOST
Kicker Player Prop: Carlson (LVR) OVER 5.5 points at -120 (risking $180 to win $150)….LOST

 

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