After a rough start in NFL Week #1, this past slate of games and results in Week #2 produced far better results. However, there’s still a long way to go.
What’s really going well, so far, are my Las Vegas handicapping contest entries. Actually, it’s a syndicate of investors and I mange the $10,000 worth of entries week-to-week in two contests. Here’s the latest report about that:
Circa Survivor Update:
Read more about my thoughts in NFL Week #3 and more here at SurvivorSweat.com. These articles focus mainly on my entries in the $1,000 buy-in Circa Survivor contest.
If you want to read my survivor picks for NFL #3, click here and go to SurvivorSweat.com. Free to sign up and subscribe, including some really good contest content from other writers/gamblers.
In 2023 Circa Survivor, we invested $3,000 into a whopping $9,267,000 prize pool. In Circa Survivor, we currently have 2 live tickets. I like where we’re at, given that more than one-third of the field is already eliminated — only 5,924 of 9,267 Circa Survivor entries remain. We have 2 of them. Oh, and $9,267,000 winner take all goes to first place.
Nine mil. It’s going to be one helluva’ party, IF……..
One time, one time, baby, one time.
Westgate Super Contest
Aside from a perfect slate, we stand at about as good a place as can reasonably be expected right now.
In the Westgate Super Contest, we invested $7,000 into a $1,301,000 prize pool (official numbers aren’t announced yet). All 7 of our tickets are at .500 or better. So, even the worst ticket is only 4 games out of first place. Our best ticket is 2 games out of first place. I’m thrilled with this considering Week #1 was a bad start for us.
Some other facts I culled from the published online standings:
- No one is 10-0. Not even 1 ticket.
- Best record is 9-1, shared by only 5 players.
- There are 1,301 entrants.
- 480 of 1301 have a 4-5-1 record, or worse.
- 1 player is at 0-10.
Here’s the entries and standings, which are published weekly at the Westgate SuperBook website:
More About Last Week
Small win betting cash on last week’s games. You can scroll down below (all the way to the end) and see a capsule of those results, with each wager and outcome. Note that I only post what I write up in advance. Halftime wagering, in-game wagering, and so forth is not counted here, since those results aren’t verifiable. One thing I value is posting an accurate record (which many so-called “handicappers” fail to do).
Looking ahead, here are my thoughts on all the games for Week #3, along with my picks.
*****************************************************
2023 NFL WAGERING RECORD
21 — Wins
24 — Losses
1 — Pushes
Starting Bankroll: $10,000.
Current Bankroll: $8,895.
Net Gain/Loss: – $1,465
Last Week: 11 wins – 10 losses (- $60.)
11-Year Comprehensive Record (2012-present):
CLICK HERE
*****************************************************
Correction: Earlier, I counted ATL as a win, when it was in fact, a loss. ATL covered in my Westgate contest pick at +1, but it was -1.5 here when I made the pick and it was posted. Naturally, I count the number that appears here on my site at the time it’s posted. Hence, it’s a loss. ATL won by just 1 point, and didn’t cover the -1.5 line.
NY Giants at San Francisco
Line: 49ers -10.5
Total: 43.5
—– Question: Should San Francisco be favored by -10.5 points in the Thursday Night game versus the NY Giants? If we asked this question before the season started, the answer would have been a resounding — no. In fact, it’s likely the 49ers would have been 6 to 7 point favorites (at most). But the Giants have looked so terrible in their first two games — or at least seven of the eight quarters they played — that betting on them right now require a leap of faith, and perhaps even a death wish. It’s astounding that the Giants have been outscored 46-0 in the first half to two games, thus far. They’ve been outplayed in every facet — offense, defense, and special teams. The Giants have just one takeaway in eight quarters. The offensive line looks like shit. And QB D. Jones is back to his awful self (due in some measure to the awful OL and non-existent WRs), reminding us of why he’s 23-33-1 SU as an NFL starter. Even worse, in a case of bad timing for the struggling G-Men, RB S. Barkley — the Giant’s best offensive threat — has been ruled out with an ankle injury. But the good news for the Giants, if any, is…..they’re 1-1, which is something of a miracle when you look at stats in the box scores.
——Meanwhile, San Francisco is showing us again they they’re among the favorites to win the NFC. They put on a clinic in the opener at Pittsburgh, demolishing the Steelers. And while they were put to the test in a tougher-than-expected game vs. division rival LA Rams last week (who covered in the final seconds on a controversial “meaningless” field goal), the 49ers were up by 10 late and continued to force turnovers and make big plays when they were needed. QB B. Purdy is 9-1 in his career is appears to be as seasoned as any of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL. This is also the Niners’ home opener after two road games, while the Giants are playing back-to-back roadies, which is never an easy task.
—–A few key trends worth mentioning include:
– Since 2018, NYG are 25-11 ATS as a road underdog
– SFO is 13-8-1 ATS in last 22 games coming off a win.
– SF) was 7-1 ATS as a home favorite last season.
—–I won’t bet on the Giants given all their problems, But laying 10.5 seems like a lot. There’s some temptation to tease the 49ers down to -4.5, and expect some bettors who are scared of the hook on the 10, will do exactly that. But I don’t like ugly hooks (i.e., half points) whenever they fall on the wrong side of a key number, and 4 is a key number. Looking at the betting menu, this is a tough game to find a bargain. Where I do see an opportunity is in the number of points by San Francisco in the first half. The 49ers team total is 13.5 juiced to -130. I like this number to go OVER. A few reasons why:
>SFO scored 20 in the 1H at Pittsburgh and 17 in the 1H at LA Rams. Back home versus what looks like an average defense, at best, the Niners should put up points.
>SFO averaged just 13.6 1H points last season, but that was with uncertainty at QB for half of their games and part of the season without RB McCaffrey, who was acquired in midseason. With Purdy (and McCaffrey), the offense played much better and was particularly aggressive early in games.
->With NYG awful 1H numbers, so far, that could play into an extra possession or two in the 1H. SFO also forces lots of turnovers (+5 already this season and +19 since start of 2022). Also, in their first two games, 49ers won starting field position over their opponents by 10-8 yards.
My Pick:
First Half: San Francisco Team Total OVER 13.5 at -130 (Risking $130 to win $100)
_____
Tennessee at Cleveland
Line: Browns -3.5 (-115)
Total: 39.5
—– Tennessee continues to be disrespected by linesmakers and the betting public. This marks the Titans’ third straight game where they’ve been awarded a field goal or higher on the line. Fortunately, I’ve taken advantage of the undervalued Titans in the first two weeks and been rewarded by getting covers both times. Since my first two Titans dates went well, I’m asking this cutie out again and hoping to make another score. She’s been paying off like a slot machine. May the third time be a charm.
——I understand Cleveland being favored here, but I don’t understand the hook on the 3 (now at +3.5). At most, the wounded and deflated Browns should be laying a field goal. We all watched the Browns on Monday night as they disintegrated offensively, turning the ball over for 14 points and basically gifting the game to the sloppy Steelers. QB D. Watson’s stats continue to be alarming as he ranks 25th or worse in just about every meaningful statistical category. But Watson’s worst quality is making mental blunders and failing to protect the ball that’s costing his team possession (and worse even–the game). We also watched the RB N. Chubb injury, a devastating loss which has to impact the Browns’ top-5 rushing attack as a huge subtraction (Update; Chubb is out for the season). So, this seems like a great fade against a inconsistent, struggling, losing team that just lost arguably their best player and then being forced to play again on a short week. Let me credit the Browns defense which has played two outstanding games — shutting down Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. I was even impressed with their Cleveland D’s swagger, which you don’t usually see on the Browns. I’m not sure that will be enough for this offense with so many question marks right now.
——Perhaps Cleveland will continue their defensive success as Tennessee’s offense remains inconsistent. However I think there’s enough talent on the Titans and certainly experience to go into Cleveland and get the W–and if not, then at least cover a field goal. I’ve been a vocal critic of the play-calling by the Titans in recent years which can drive you crazy if you’re betting on them. That said, the offense does try to create balance with both a dual run and pass threats. I’ve been checking reports on this game and I still don’t understand why the line isn’t Cleveland -2.5 (or perhaps -3, at most). So, I’m taking the Titans for the third consecutive week on the point spread.
—–Finally, sports can also be a mental game as much as physical. I think it’s going to be tough for Cleveland to shake off that loss in Pittsburgh, which is a game they should have won (Browns out-yarded Steelers by 150+ yards) but were killed by sacks and turnovers. The Chubb injury has to impact this team’s confidence, as well. A good team can overcome setbacks, but the Browns are not a good team. Watson has yet to play a solid game since his return in midseason 2022, and his teammates will be questioning his leadership at some point. So long as the Titans don’t get foolish and feed RB. D. Henry and get enough pass completions in-between, the road underdog should keep this one close and possibly win outright.
My Picks:
First Half: Tennessee +1.5 (Risking $115 to win $100)
Tennessee Team Total (Full Game) OVER 17.5 (Risking $110 to win $100)
Tennessee +3.5 at -115 (Risking $230 to win $200)
_____
New England at NY Jets
Line: Patriots -2.5
Total: 36.5
—–This is a difficult matchup to handicap because of glaring ineptitudes of both offenses. It’s hard to believe that 0-2 New England could be favored over anybody on the road after falling behind in both of their first two games by more than two touchdowns. But that’s how quickly their opponent, the 1-1 Jets, have plunged in the minds of bettors, especially after watching the horrific ineptitude from the Jets offensive unit in Dallas last week. Calling Zach Wilson a quarterback is a bit like referring to Danny Bonaduce as a celebrity. Yeah, the uniform sorta’ fits. But the longer you watch the head-scratching spectacle, the revelation gradually comes into focus and what emerges is an empty shell of confusion, utterly devoid of skill or talent. Wilson’s career stat lines are dreadful, and apparently the prep work between Weeks #1 and #2 didn’t help his development. It’s tempting to fade the Jets until they prove they can move the ball with any consistency. It’s one thing to miss throws and drop a few passes. Yet, Wilson doesn’t seem like he’s using the same playbook as his teammates. Wrong pass routes, Bad snap counts. Motion penalties. As for NY Jets defense, we keep hearing how good they are. But I remain unconvinced.
—–Betting against a team that can’t score points would normally seem like the right play, but after watching New England’s offensive line closely last week in their SNF loss to Miami, it was obvious that this unit could not run block nor past protect. Let me put it this way–when you’re team is getting run over by the Miami defense in your second of back-to-back home games and defensive linemen are breathing down Mac Jones’ shoulder pads every play that’s not a team I want to lay points with.
——Given the situation, it seems UNDER 36.5 could be the obvious play. I must say–thats a really low total. In today’s pass-happy NFL with refs throwing flags for so many tick-tack infractions – including pass interference and roughing the passer and unnecessary roughness- it’s hard for me to go UNDER these low numbers like I used to. I once used to pounce on “bad” games like this. Not anymore. Sure, this could land someplace in the 20-17 sphere. Given what we’ve seen from both teams, I’m having trouble finding any value.
—–Last week, I got burned on the Jets when I found an early rogue line on the Jets Team Total at 13.5 for the full game. I figured no NFL team should have a total of that low, ever, as long as it’s not an inclement weather situation. The punchless Jets could only muster 10 points, 7 of which came on one fluke play. I got sick watching the Jets struggle every series to make first downs and went 3-and-out several times. Even worse — the passing game just isn’t there. As much as I’m tempted to get suckered into taking “plus points” or or “plus moneyline” where it appears on various props, I just can’t pull the trigger with real money on this game. So, I’m going to pass.
My Pick:
None
_____
LA Chargers at Minnesota
Line: Vikings -1
Total: 54
—–Initially, this was a matchup I had zero interest in betting. The primary excuse for my avoidance is simple– volatility. Even though both teams entered the 2023 season as playoff contenders, it’s hard to back either one of these winless disappointments considering they’re both 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS. Both defenses have played poorly, especially the Chargers. Then there’s a stat that’s hard to believe: The Vikings’ running game ranks dead last in the NFL, averaging just 2.6 YPC in their first two games. I don’t like betting on team that can’t at least generate something close to the league average (4.3 YPC) and create some balance. Admittedly, both powerful passing attacks are among the league’s best, statistically speaking.
—–High-totaled games plays into an admitted bias on my part when it comes to NFL handicapping, I shy away from offensive-minded games, pass-happy matchups. I don’t want both QBs throwing the ball 50+ times. too many different things can happen, and no one know what they are. Instead, give me the so-called “boring” low-scoring games so far as trying to find some value from it. These “last team with the ball wins” games filled with big plays are terrible situations to bet on, unless you just want to shoot dice and gamble, because that’s all this is.
—–I presume the Vikings may get some late support simply because they’re at home while the Chargers are playing their second straight road game. Add some perceived advantage for 10 days of prep time (the Vikings played a Thursday game in Week #2). Home field “advantage” isn’t what it used to be, but it should still be worth more than a point, so I can see a slight lean to the Vikings right simply based on the number, which I expect will movie up slightly near game time. However, for me this game is a pass at the moment.
My Pick:
None
_____
Houston at Jacksonville
Line: Jaguars -7.5
Total: 43.5
—–Should 1-1 Jacksonville really be laying more than a touchdown to any opponent? That’s the case this Sunday when the Jaguars host 0-2 Houston Texans. Obviously, this line is predicated upon the Jags bouncing back after their muddled loss to the Chiefs and now playing in a back-to-back home situation. The Texans are perceived by many to be one the worst -if not the worst- team in the NFL. Indeed, Houston did lose their first two games by 16 and 11 points, respectively. Opponents are converting more than 50 percent of their third-down plays. And, Houston simply can’t score having put up only 19 points in six red zone drives this season. But this sure does seem like overvaluing and undervaluing two teams that have historically played close games.
—–In fact, it may be a shocker to learn this, but Houston has won 9 of the last 10 times in this series. The Texans are 7-3 ATS in those games and 7-2 versus the number in their last nine trips to Jacksonville. Jaguars are headed to London after this match, so this matchup may get a little extra effort given the Jags are coming off a loss to the Super Bowl winner sandwiched in between a long road trip. As far as picking a side, the Texans historical dominance of this series (which seems inexplicable) and also the fact that Jacksonville has yet to demonstrate the pedigree of being justified as a 7.5-point favorite over anybody keeps me off picking either side.
—–Where I do see value is the UNDER, both in the first half (21.5) and full game 43,5). Given the Texans’ lack of scoring, we can probably say breaking this total will require most of the points to come from the Jaguars. However, is there any reason to expect an excess of offensive production? I don’t see it. Division rivalries with struggling teams are generally a good recipe for UNDERs. Last season, these teams put up 19 combined in the first game and 34 points in the rematch. The UNDER is 8-3 in the last 11 games in this series. I’ll make two wagers on the UNDER, hoping at least one offense will underperform.
My Picks:
First Half: Houston/Jacksonville UNDER 21.5 (Risking $110 to win $100)
Houston/Jacksonville UNDER 43.5 (Risking $165 to win $100)
_____
New Orleans at Green Bay
Line: Packers -1
Total: 42
—–There are several reasons why New Orleans looks appealing getting a point this week playing at Green Bay. The line has also moved from -2 down to -1, even though it’s a short week for the Saints playing back to back roadies off a MNF win. I’ll admit, this looks like one of the best defenses in the NFL. New Orleans’ stingy D has allowed just 1 touchdown on 23 opponent drives this season. Opponents converted just 6 of 26 third downs which is a staggering percentage. Historically, the Saints have been surprisingly good road underdogs going 12-4 ATS in that spot. Another oddity–even though New Orleans plays in a dome on rubber grass, they’re one of the few teams that goes outdoors and performs brilliantly going 24-12 versus the number in their last 36 games on natural grass.
—–So, why am I jumping on the Green Bay Packers and laying a point? Reason: I think the intangibles outweigh factors that I normally would give more value to. After the Packers played two road games (and were undervalued as small underdogs in both) here’s the home opener at Lambeau Field. I think that performing well in those two roadies gives the Packers some confidence and a bit of a lift back at home, especially since this is the launch of a new era with (A. Rodgers gone and) QB J. Love now the signal caller. The Packers have to be reasonably happy with Love’s performance in the first two games. 6 TDs. 0 INTs. Just 2 sacks. He did his job, putting up points and moving the team. Familiar home surroundings should only help the Packers this week.
—–I also suspect the Saints’ impressive defensive statistics are a bit inflated, more the result of weak opposing offenses rather than their own dominance. Last week, New Orleans faced one worst offenses in football with a rookie quarterback (Carolina) and before that a team that consistently blunders with its play calling (Tennessee). Maybe the Saints defense is for real, but first I want to see them shut down some really strong teams before I make that assessment.
—–Packers are 13-4 ATS the last four seasons coming off a loss. They also tend to punch it in once they get into the red zone, having scored five TDs in six tries. I think these teams are very close in quality, but the Lambeau Field factor is probably worth an extra couple of points. We can also argue the Saints don’t need this game as badly, sitting at 2-0 on the season. I’d make this line Green Bay -3 (-120), so I’m going to lay the single point and take the Pack.
—–Note: One other thing that I noticed that doesn’t come up in box scores is if you watched D. Carr last week, you saw him constantly frustrated with his receivers. Saints scored 20 points, but it wasn’t a pretty performance and Carr was off target (or his receivers were missing their routes). The frustration was seen on his face numerous times which tells me that he’s not quite in sync yet with this new offense, scoring just 17 points the first week (forgivable perhaps since that was his maiden voyage with the Saints), but certainly they should put up more than 20 vs. Carolina. Dating back to his days with the Raiders, Carr is only 65-80 SU as an NFL starter. I think we’ve got some value here with close to a pick ’em game betting on Green Bay at home.
My Pick:
Green Bay -1 (Risking $220 to win $200)
_____
Denver at Miami
Line: Dolphins -6.5
Total: 48
—–The contrarian in me says take Denver which is getting nearly a touchdown at Miami. This is one of those quintessential matchups where the public is top-loaded on the favorite. It’s also an example of the “sharps versus squares” divide. I mentioned that last week on the Miami-New England game and got burned, but I’ll repeat it here because I do think public money loves Miami, while Denver is probably the right side at least if you are looking for value.
—–Betting markets may have overreacted to these W-L records, when they’re actually much closer than many may realize. Denver is winless at 0-2 but lost by a combined three points in those two games. A different play outcome here or there and Broncos could easily be 2-0, which would significantly change this line.
—–I’ve also been impressed with Denver’s preparation under Sean Payton in the first two games. Last week, they roared out to 21-3 lead and the passing game looked strong, even though Broncos collapsed in the second half. It should also be noted that Broncos missed two extra points in those games which was important in the final outcomes.
—–Despite Denver’s miserable ’22 season they’re still 17-12 ATS as road dogs in the last five seasons. Broncos were favored by more than a field goal in both previous games, and now the line has swung 9+ points in the other direction — getting +6.5 which looks like an overreaction.
—–Naturally, the optimism and betting interest on the Dolphins is justified. The offense looks to be one of the NFL’s best and I won’t bother posting all the data points which illustrates how well Miami is playing on offense at this point. But the defense ranks #23 and allows yards and points. Also recall, Miami needed a last-minute drive to win at LA Chargers opening week and last week the Patriots staged a furious comeback and a terrible official’s call prevented the Patriots from potentially tying the score in the final minute. I’m not going to jump in front of the Miami train. I do think the Dolphins, much like the Chiefs, actually wears down defenses as the game goes on, but I do see some value especially in the first half with the Broncos getting +3.5. Note that Denver has been well prepared for both of their previous games…..ahead 13 -10 in game 1 and ahead 21-14 in game 2 at halftime. Given the Broncos more than a field goal in the first half looks like the best value, and a bit more ideal than getting just +6.5 for the full game. Given the Bronco’s 1H efforts, combined with their 2H failures, the first-half wager is where I’m placing my money.
My Pick:
First Half: Denver +3.5 (Risking $220 to win $200)
_____
Buffalo at Washington
Line: Bills -6.5
Total: 43
—–I’m not going to spend as much time on this game write-up as my reasoning is simple. This is more of a feeling that WC will keep this game close and within the margin of nearly a touchdown. Washington isn’t in Buffalo’s class (certainly not offensively), but I’m not sure that they’re this far behind, either. This is especially when considering under head coach Ron Rivera they’ve been undervalued by the market, going a remarkable 19-11 ATS coming off of victory. QB S. Howell is making only his fourth career start, but he’s perfect 3-0, so far and the Pigskins are 2-0 for the first time in 12 years. BUF QB J. Allen is capable of brilliant performances, but he also does a fair number of clunkers and Washington’s above-average defense with this personal has shown the ability to frustrate opposing quarterbacks. I’m taking the Pigskins at home here for a small amount and taking the points. UPDATE: CHECK WEATHER
My Pick:
Washington +6.5 (Risking $110 to win $100)
_____
Atlanta at Detroit
Line: Lions -3 (-115)
Total: 46
—–Those of you who follow my weekly write-ups know that I faded Detroit in their first two games. I did this not because I didn’t believe in the great job head coach Dan Campbell has done with Detroit in turning around this long-suffering team and instilling confidence for the first time in 30 years. I just thought the fan expectations and betting market overvalued the Lions in previous weeks. However, I now think they’re selling the Lions short since they come off a loss
—–Meanwhile, Atlanta is somewhat of a mirage at 2-0. Both wins were at home. The Falcons should have destroyed Carolina in their first game, which was expected. But ATL fell behind 24-12 at home to Green Bay last week. I didn’t like what I saw from the Falcons, even though they won. Moreover, I wasn’t impressed with D. Ritter as quarterback based on what I saw even though Atlanta did win the game. I say the jury remains out on Ritter, who really looked lost in the pocket much of the time. That’s a very early grade.
—–I view this matchup as a contrast of different motivations where the Falcons will find the road a much tougher place to play, especially against an offense that can move the ball and score points and takes lots of chances. Campbell never plays it safe. I also think the Falcons are playing a little over their head right now, I think Detroit’s for real and they’ll be a playoff team and this is one of those key games where they’ll regroup and respond well to, hopefully also covering the line of a field goal. I’m not sure what the line should be here — maybe -3.5 or -4. But this is one of those cases where Detroit has played good teams in the first two weeks as I think Seattle is underrated by the market and this might be the weakest opposition they’ve played…..whereas Atlanta is now facing its toughest test, especially on the road. Most of you who do handicapping know how extraordinary Detroit is against the line….24-11 against the spread under Dan Campbell in two seasons. As we move forawrd, much of those data points will be outdated since Detroit’s now going to be *laying* points instead of *getting* points at least in the foreseeable future. Nonetheless these are two programs both on the rise, but I think the Lions are a bit ahead of where Atlanta is at this moment. So, given the added motivational factors which favors Detroit, I’m going to lay the points and take the lines to roar on Sunday.
—–I expect this line will move to at least -3.5 by game time. Get -3 if possible, which is key.
My Pick:
Detroit -3 at -115 (Risking $230 to win $200)
_____
Indianapolis at Baltimore
Line: Ravens -7.5
Total 43,5
—–All handicappers, even serious-minded handicappers, have biases. Maybe a better word for this is blind spots. I’m no different. I’ve never been able to jump on big NFL favorites laying more than a touchdown. I’m sure this has cost me many opportunities to profit in the last. I just tend to shy away from them. Maybe it’s just the historical contrarian in me, hard for the spots to change the leopard. I just don’t like going along with (often wrong) echo chambers and sports talk hype surrounding the good teams. It’s also statistically proven to shade the line in many instance That’s my disclaimer for what I’m about to say — which is, I’m on the Baltimore Ravens in on several betting situations this week. I make the Ravens an exception to my general rule for several reasons.
—–First, Baltimore tends to play much better historically under head coach John Harbaugh early in the season and then as the games wears on and they sustain injuries, they aren’t able to replicate their early momentum. This could be tied to their intensity in training camp and preseason which is well documented. It’s a theory with evidence to back it up, but I’m just more comfortable taking Ravens in this early season game versus what appears to be an outmatched opponent.
—–Baltimore has looked very solid in its first two games; first, dominating Houston at home in an easy win and second, going into Cincinnati where many of us thought the Bengals would rebound. Instead, the Crows played well on both sides of the ball and won outright as underdogs in a divisional road situation. Now, the Colts pose a relatively easy task for Baltimore for obvious reasons if you follow the NFL.
—–I also think the Colts surprisingly easy victory last week in Houston takes pressure off. Now they go on the road again versus a much tougher foe which should produce a glaringly different outcome.
It also appears the quarterback situation for the Colts is uncertain. Rookie A. Richardson is unlikely to play based on reports, or if he does he won’t be at 100 percent. That leaves G. Minshew the backup who is 8-16 over the course of his career. Indianapolis are losers of 11 of their last 14 games SU. I don’t see the Ponies bucking that ugly trend here.
—–What’s been impressive about Baltimore is not just the wins, but the fact they’ve converted 17 of 29 third down plays this season and are very effective in the red zone/ Moreover, perhaps I overestimate the value of GOAT placekicker J. Tucker, but even when the Ravens stall he’s probably good as gold from anywhere within 60 yards. Versatile QB L. Lamar Jackson gets rightly criticized a lot for his lack of passing stats, but we can’t ignore his 48-19 record as an NFL starter.
—–it’s simple. I don’t think the Colts have the talent to stay with the Ravens here. So, I’m doing three wagers on Baltimore. One is to lay -7.5 on the game line; the other is to tease the Ravens to -1.5; and the third (which is a very unusual wager for me) is to combine two solid favorites on a moneyline parlay in which case I’m taking the Ravens on the ML combined with the Seahawks. Go birds! UPDATE: CHECK WEATHER
My Picks:
Baltimore -7.5 (Risking $220 to win $200)
Teaser: Baltimore -1.5 / Seattle pick at -120 (Risking $240 to win $200)
Moneyline Parlay: Baltimore / Seattle (Risking $500 to win $370)
_____
UPDATE: Sometimes, I run out of time. I’ll try to update more game analysis if I can. But first, let me get these remaining plays for NFL Week #3 posted now:
Bets:
Seattle -6 (Risking $220 to win $200)
Las Vegas -2.5 vs. Pittsburgh (Risking $220 to win $200)
Tampa Bay +5 vs. Philadelphia (Risking $110 to win $100)
Leans:
Arizona +13 vs. Dallas
Kansas City -12.5 vs. Chicago
_____
Note: Some of these reports were written and posted as early as Thursday, so the lines may have changed. I try to update this page until game times.
_____
Last Week’s Results:
Atlanta -1.5 (Risking $110 to win $100)…..LOST
Cincinnati -3 (Risking $220 to win $200)…..LOST
Baltimore/Cincinnati UNDER 47 (Risking $220 to win $200)…..LOST
Seattle +5 (Risking $275 to win $250)…..WON
Tennessee +3 at -120 (Risking $220 to win $200)…..WON
First Half: Chicago +1.5 at -115 (Risking $230 to win $200)…..LOST
Jacksonville +3.5 at -120 (Risking $240 to win $200)…..LOST
Kansas City-Jacksonville UNDER 51 (Risking $220 to win $200)…..WON
First Half: Indianapolis + .5 (half point)….($120 to win $100)…..WON
LA Rams +8 (Risking $165 to win $150)….WON
NY Jets Team Total OVER 13.5 at -130 (Risking $260 to win $200)…..LOST
Washington +3.5 at -105 (Risking $210 to win $200)….WON
Washington Team Total OVER 17 at -120 (Risking $240 to win $200)….WON
New England +3 at -115 (Risking $230 to win $200)…..LOST
New England Team Total OVER 22.5 (Risking $110 to win $100)….LOST
New Orleans -3 (Risking $220 to win $200)….PUSH
First Quarter Total: OVER 6.5 at -145 (Risking $145 to win $100)….WON
First Half: Pittsburgh +.5 at -115 (risking $15 to win $100)….WON
Pittsburgh +2.5 (Risking $220 to win $200)…..WON
Minnesota +6.5 (Risking $110 to win $100)…..WON
Minnesota/Philadelphia UNDER 49 (Risking $110 to win $100)…..LOST
First Half: Minnesota Team Total OVER 9.5 at -130 (Risking $130 to win $100)…..LOST