Barring the unforeseen, 2018 will be my fifth winning season out of seven. Since I began posting weekly picks here at my website, I’m slightly ahead. I’ll post the updated figures later. All I know is, after more than 1,000 picks posted in advance since 2012, producing a profit is something to be proud of. A win is a win.
This season, after 136 recommended wagers, I’ve picked about 55 percent winners overall, netting a nice profit of about 48 percent on top of my original starting bankroll. However, my futures wagers tanked badly this season, reducing my net profit to only about 15 percent overall. Nonetheless, I will take a 15 percent return on investment anytime I can get it.
What were oddsmakers thinking when they installed the Los Angeles Rams as the favorite of over the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LIII?
Oddsmakers don’t make many mistakes. Otherwise, casinos and sportsbooks wouldn’t be in business. They certainly don’t make mistakes on NFL games, which attract the vast majority of sports gambling activity in America. And, it’s beyond inconceivable that a major attraction like the Super Bowl, which generates billions of dollars in betting action, would have a pointspread that’s quite possibly off by perhaps 4 or more points.
What were oddsmakers thinking? Or smoking?
Installing the Rams as a -1 favorite was the worst opening line on a Super Bowl game in history. Bar none. It wasn’t just a terrible number. The line was so bad that the wrong team was favored.
Every week is different in handicapping. Circumstances which apply one week might not apply to the next. Yet, there are some commonalities which apply to the first two weeks of the NFL playoffs which are unique.