Philadelphia Eagles Head Coach Chip Kelly is one of two things. He’s either a coward or a moron. Take your pick.
Late in today’s NFL game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Redskins, Kelly and his team faced a common dilemma that comes up all too often in football games. Yet, I rarely if ever see a head coach make the right decision.
His team was almost certainly destined to lose the ball game on a last-second field goal. Yet, instead of playing the odds and giving his team the best possible chance to come back and win, Kelly inexplicably lapsed from a highly-respected football coach who’s presumably full of innovation into a total dimwit. He could have played the odds and been guaranteed at least one final chance to tie the game. Instead, he watched from the sidelines with his head up his ass and witnessed his team’s playoff chances expire with a devastating loss.
Here’s what happened: The game was tied 24-24 with about 1:20 remaining in the fourth quarter. The Redskins had the ball at the opponent’s 8-yard line, with a first down and goal. They were within easy field-goal range. A successful game-winning kick was all but a certainty. However, the Eagles still had two timeouts left. In other words, even if Washington ran three more plays (which they did) and then the Eagles used up both of their remaining timeouts, there would still be almost no time left in the game. That’s because at least 45 seconds were certain to run off between 3rd and 4th down.
It’s not complicated, folks. This is elementary football. Pee-Wee league stuff. It’s a scenario every football fan in America knows and understands. But obviously, head coaches just don’t get it. College and pro, they repeatedly blow it whenever the situation comes up, and in doing so — cost their teams a chance to win.
For the Eagles, the correct decision was clearly to LET THE REDSKINS SCORE! That’s right. When they run the next play, instruct the defense to fall to the ground and allow the ball carrier to sprint into the end zone for a touchdown. Score 31-24 with 1:10 remaining, plus two time-outs.
Why would any defense let the other team score? Well, it’s easy. Let’s do some basic math.
SCENARIO #1 — Allow the Redskins to score a touchdown. That means the Eagles would be trailing by 7 points. But they would also get the ball back with about 1:10 remaining, plus two timeouts. They would probably have to drive about 75 yards or so within that time span to tie the game. What are the chances of that actually happening? Probably somewhere between 10 and 15 percent. Remember, the Eagles’ offense is now in a four-down situation. The Eagles’ chances (even with sub-par quarterback Mark Sanchez) probably enjoyed odds that were significantly better than that, since they commonly use a hurry-up offensive scheme. Let’s compromise and say the odds of achieving the tie are 12.5 percent.
SCENARIO #2 — Stop the Redskins on three consecutive downs and hope for a missed field goal. That’s the only realistic hope of victory. So, what are the chances of that actually happening? Well, Washington placekicker Kai Forbath is 23 of 26 on field goals this season, including a perfect 10 for 10 when kicking inside the 30-yard line. This last-second field goal would be approximately 25 yards, akin to an extra point. Farbath is 26 out of 27 on extra points this season. That means he’s made 36 out of 37 kicks from inside the 30-yard line. Let’s say the chances of Forbath missing the chip shot are about 3 percent.
Hmm. 12.5 percent versus 3 percent. Which is better? Don’t ask Chip Kelly this question. He still doesn’t get it. He must be clueless.
Even with the tiny fraction of a chance the Eagles could get the ball back and run one more play, it appears that choosing SCENARIO #1 offers about four times better a chance than SCENARIO #2. Even if you quibble with my calculations, the odds in favor of allowing the Redskins to score the free touchdown and get the ball back on offense one last time are so overwhelming, that there needn’t be a discussion about it.
LET THE OTHER TEAM SCORE!
Sure. It’s just a football game. But it was a critical game for the sliding Eagles, who were exhaling one last breath of hope to make this year’s NFL playoffs. Under these circumstances, the head coach has an obligation to put his team in the best possible position to win. That’s what he’s paid to do. Something like $7.5 million a year, making him one of the ten highest-paid coaches in all of sports.
The Eagles blew it today. The defense was awful. They committed a comically bad 13 penalties. Quarterback Mark Sanchez retrogressed yet again, with a late interception with under 2 minutes remaining, and a strip-sack earlier — turnovers which certainly crippled his team and allowed the Redskins to score points. In fact, they were terrible. The Eagles don’t deserve to be in the playoffs.
But it was Chip Kelly who made the biggest blunder of all. At least the Eagles’ players were out on the field — trying. They gave it their best shot. Kelly didn’t. He was AWOL. He didn’t show up and make the right decision when it mattered most. When the time came for leadership, Kelly was asleep at the headset.
Like many football coaches, either Kelly is a complete moron for not knowing basic math. Or worse, he’s a coward for indeed knowing the right movie, but not having the strength of character to make the right decision and then stick with it.
It’s astounding that in America’s true national pastime, the game which dominates the sporting landscape, we still haven’t seen the application of “Moneyball” to basic strategy. Why aren’t teams employing stats people and math gurus to make what should be easy decisions? Then again, this one should have been easy. You don’t need a stats guy to point out what’s obvious.