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Posted by on Sep 20, 2015 in Blog | 1 comment

NFL Week 2: Picks and Predictions

 

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NOLAN DALLA — 2015 NFL SEASON RECORD

7 WINS – 0 LOSSES — 0 PUSHES

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $13,400.

NET GAIN/LOSS:  + $3,400.

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  1 – 0 – 0

LAST WEEK:  7 — 0 — 0 

Let’s get straight to handicapping.

For those with the time and want a more thorough breakdown of most NFL games this week, here’s a 60-minute video I shot on Friday night.  Note the lines and information was current at the time the video was filmed.  Some lines and totals could have changed since then.

In today’s report, you can scroll down to see each of my picks with write-ups (plays I’ve made myself).  I have 9 plays, including 2 “Best Bets” of the week.

My analysis of NFL Week 2, on video:

 

 

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:

2-team 6-point Teaser:  New England -1 with Tennessee +9 — wagering $1,100 to win $1,000     …..WON

2 -team 6-point Teaser:  New England -1 with Atlanta +9 — wagering $1,100 to win $1,000     …..WON

Carolina vs. Jacksonville UNDER 41.5 — wagering $330 to win $300      …..WON

Indianapolis vs. Buffalo UNDER 45 — wagering $330 to win $300     …..WON

St. Louis +4 vs. Seattle — wagering $220 to win $200      …..WON

[BEST BET]  Arizona -2 vs. New Orleans — wagering $440 to win $400      …..WON

First Half Wager:  Washington +3 (-120) vs. Miami — wagering $240 to win $200     …..WON

 

THIS WEEK’S BETS (lines current at of 7:30 am PST):

 

BEST BET:  New England (+1.5) vs. Buffalo — $550 to win $500          …..How often do we get NWE in an underdog situation versus a team they’ve dominated historically?  NWE has won 21 of last 23 games SU and 10 of 11 at BUF.  Public appears to be vastly overreacting to BUF upset victory versus INDY last week, which gives us added value here (otherwise this line is probably NWE -3).  BUF RB McCoy listed as questionable, but will probably play.  BUF QB Taylor still lacking big game experience and since they won, escaped some closer scrutiny which revealed some pretty mediocre numbers — just 14 of 19 for 195 yards.  BUF will need more production than that facing one of the NFL’s best offenses.  Obviously BUF head coach Ryan knows this opponent here, and will have his team prepared, but I’ll go ahead and fade an unproven QB and a RB who will not be at 100 percent if he does play.  We also have NWE with extra time to prepare, off the 10-day break from last Thursday’s opener, which should be somewhat of an advantage.  We saw last week in opener that NWE looks like a “mission” team after the NFL offseason controversy, and there should be no letdown here versus a division rival.  Rarely do we gets NWE this cheap, in a  favorable spot, likely to be motivated.  Looks like one of the best bets of the week.  [Note:  Morning line moved heavily and inexplicably towards BUF, off the PICK to +1.5]

 

BEST BET:  Miami/Jacksonville UNDER 41.5 — $550 to win $500          .….JAX has played six straight UNDERs and nothing we saw from either team last week indicates much scoring will take place in this game.  JAX offense struggled again, while MIA put up a whopping 10 points against terrible WASH (a late TD came on a punt return).  Little to suggest MIA offense will spark this week, playing it’s second consecutive on the road versus defense that is at least average to perhaps good.  JAX defense only allowed 13 points last week (defensive score accounted for one TD), and has surrendered average of 18 PPG dating back to mid-last season.  So, we have two defenses in good form, at least one terrible offense, and another offense that showed little last week and is on the road again.  Good news for MIA defense was DL Suh not being suspended for yet another infraction.  JAX TE Thomas is out.  Last year, these two teams played a 27-13 game (landing on 40).  Inexplicably, the game is posted at 41.5.  I’d total this at no higher than 39, so we pick up two relatively key numbers in totals betting, the 40 and 41.  I’ll continue to ride the JAX UNDER train for another week until I see something from the offense.

 

Carolina -3 vs. Houston (-105) — $420 to win $400          …..This is more of an “against HOU” play, since the oddsmakers are telling us these two teams are about even in talent (-3 given for home field).  I disagree.  HOU performed atrociously in home opener last week and seem to be is disarray offensively.  HOU will start QB Mallette, who will be making only his third career start in the NFL, and it’s on the road versus an above-average defense, a situation I like to fade.  CAR defense posted 5 sacks last week, and forced 3 turnovers including a defensive score, which is what I want to see on teams I back.  Things get worse for HOU since TE Griffin is going to be out 8 weeks with injury.  CAR also tends to beat up on bad teams under head coach Ron Rivera, going 8-3-1 SU versus teams with losing record.  They can’t beat good teams, but they do put away the teams they should.  CAR also solid at home, going 11-5-1 last two seasons ATS.  CAR in home opener, good defense, weakness and unproven staff in HOU, and we get a very soft number (I’d line this at -4.5).  Obviously, the concern is CAR offense, which only put up 13 points last week, but I think they’ll improve in this spot.

 

Tampa Bay/New Orleans UNDER 47.5 — $330 to win $300          …..Tempting to play NOR here laying -10, but can’t do it with so many question marks and lots of offseason turnover in personnel.  NOR is still regarded as an OVER team by the public, but offensive numbers aren’t what they were a few seasons ago.  A real problem is NOR inability to run the ball, just 57 yards rushing last week.  QB Brees will likely get his yardage, of course, but NOR scored just one TD in four trips inside the red zone last week, which tells me the offense is still lagging and last year wasn’t an aberration.  I’m still not convinced NOR offensive line issues are solved, and arguably the biggest reason why we have to lean UNDER here is the obvious loss that TE Graham means to the unit, which was readily apparent in last week’s game (losing RB Thomas didn’t help either).  Also credit NOR with perhaps showing some improvement on defense last week on road versus tough opponent.  Meanwhile, TAM has gone UNDER in 9 of its last 11 games, and comes in with arguably as weak an offense as any NFL team.  QB Winston has some developing yet to do (an understatement).  His numbers last week were deceiving, with 15 of 33 passing for 200 yards, but most of the catches and yards came in the 4th quarter against TENN second string when game was well out of hand.  TAM also committed a whopping 12 penalties last week, some indication there’s still disorder, particularly on offense.  TAM is deteriorated into the NFL’s worst team, losing 11 straight and 18 of last 20 games.  I see TB struggling on offense, and NOR doing enough to get the lead and then work on the running game, which is essential is NOR is going to compete in this division.  I also tend to like betting UNDERs in divisional games.  NOR is 5-0 SU against TAM last five, so we could see this as a confidence builder.  Expecting a 30-13 kind of game, that lands UNDER the number.

 

Dallas/Philadelphia UNDER 55.5 — $330 to win $300          ….Inexplicably, this total continues to rise, even after news that DAL star WR Bryant will be out with injury.  It’s now the highest total on the board.  PHL offense was Jeckell and Hyde last week, terrible in first half, and a Super Bowl contender in the second half.  So, which team shows up this week?  I suspect an offense somewhere in the middle, especially with perhaps more rushing attempts going to former DAL RB Murray facing his old team in first such situation.  DAL offensive numbers were somewhat deceptive last week.  They were playing catch up the entire game, but still didn’t look up to full strength and with their main deep threat out, DAL could struggle a bit in this game.  I also liked what I saw from PHL defense at times in opener, doing lots of blitzing and pressuring the QB.  Total just seems a bit too high for a division rivalry that could go a long way towards determining the NFC East winner this year.

 

Indianapolis -7 vs. NY Jets (-105) — $315 to win $300          .…Almost a perfect zig-zag effect game where home team back after crushing loss, facing visiting team last week at home and off a big win.  INDY is clearly the better team overall, and has far more weapons, starting with QB.  I’m playing IND relatively small for all these reasons.  Plus, I look forward to fading a QB bust who has never performed particularly well when he starts.  We know QB Fitzpatrick is “familiar” with OC Chan Gailey system because the two used it in BUF with so much success (<sarcasm>).  I’m also not so sure that NYJ win against CLE last week was all that indicative of talent….after all, CLE lost starting QB mid-game and then cake walked vs. Manzeil who was unprepared in the backup role, as CLE defense gradually became deflated.  These are all compelling factors which will make me lay -7, and also tease down the number close to a pick’em situation.  IND was 7-1 at home SU last season and given the added energy of MNF I’m looking for the home team to enjoy a breakaway victory. 

 

TEASER:  Indianapolis -1/Pittsburgh -.5 — $440 to win $400          …..(see reasoning for INDY above) PITT is one of a few teams that fields a quality lineup, is returning home, and should be focused after a disappointing opener.  Moreover, PITT had 10 days to prepare.  I was a bit surprised to see PITT so balanced offensively last week, despite C, RB, and WR out of the game.  PITT moved ball very well, but couldn’t convert when needed.  Much better situation here versus soft opponent, really bare at talent positions, with a new coaching staff in its first road game, usually a good fade.  PITT tends to get the wins at home, as they were 6-2-1 last year SU.  Under Tomlin, PITT has also won 8 of 9 home openers.  With the added motivation off the loss, extra time to prepare, a seemingly balanced offense where WR Brown is a potential game changer on every down (9 caches last week, for 130 yards….always a factor when healthy).  It’s also largely a situation play to bet against the winning team on MNF, which has to go on road the next week, especially for an early game in the EST zone.  Not sure PITT covers a -6.5 line, but I’m a believer that they’ll win the game.

 

TEASER:  Indianapolis -1/Chicago +8.5 — $440 to win $400          …..(see reasoning for INDY above) CHI looks to be in a rebound situation this week, in the second straight home game coming off a disappointing divisional loss in a game where they offensively outgained Packers by a 4 to 3 margin.  Very uncharacteristic spot for ARZ as a road favorite.  Glad they are getting respect which is well deserved, but coming off the big home win and now facing opponent in a somewhat desperate situation without the talents of RB Ellington (likely out, as of Saturday night reports) looks like a good fade, especially teasing this number up over a TD.  Obvious fears of the ARZ WR corps which is one of the best in the game, but CHI has its own weapons, as well.  In fact, I look for a shootout.  The teased home dog looks to be a strong wager here.  Obviously, the Wong Teaser applies to the line, moving across the key numbers 3, 4, 6, and 7.

 

FIRST HALF:  Washington +.5 vs. St. Louis — $220 to win $200          …..Taking the points with the home dog was a winner last week on WASH, and we have another similar situation, with STL the uncharacteristic road favorite going onto changing field surface, playing team that suffered some late embarrassment last week.  I look for WASH to at least come out with some fire and getting the half-point makes this worth a small wager.

 

 

OTHER THOUGHTS:

— Tempted to play CLE and fade the public in the game where just about everyone will be on visiting TENN.  But I won’t do it until I see QB Manziel belongs in the NFL.  UNDER tempting, also.  But there are better plays on the board.  LEAN CLE +2 and LEAN UNDER 40.5

— DET on road second straight week, after game where they surrendered 500 yards.  That could be the recipe for getting MINN back on track offensively after the embarrassing opener at SFO last week.  LEAN MINN -2.5

— Too many conflicting trends and info on the ATL-NYG game.  Would play NYG automatically, but two things really bothered me….NYG has less than 300 yards total offense last week, and they didn’t get a single sack.  Makes this game a PASS.

— SEA-GB is a game everyone will be watching.  I might bet it, and if I do it will be SEA -3.5.  SEA played poorly in opener and now are on road again, which isn’t a typical spot where I want to back the visitor.  However, SEA is certainly a quality team, and off the loss should be very focused.  Also, we get the half point off the key number 3.  GB could also have some issues offensively, as we saw last week.  Will be a gametime decision but assuming +3.5 is still available, might play it small.

— Sucker plays of the week (which means overreaction spots to be avoided)….1.  TENN laying points at CLE     2.  STL laying points at WASH    3.  MIA laying -5.5 to 6 at JAX

 

SEASON WIN TOTALS  — WAGERS:

Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 8.5 (+115) — wagering $2,000 to win $2,300    0-1

Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 9.5 (-110) — wagering $1,050 to win $1,000   0-1

NY Jets UNDER 7.5 (-120 /-135) — wagering $1,275 to win $1,000     1-0

Tennessee Titans OVER 5.5 (-150) — wagering $450 to win $300     1-0

Cleveland Browns UNDER 6.5 (-170) — wagering $510 to win $300     0-1

 

 

1 Comment

  1. Thoroughly enjoyed the video, Nolan. Please do more!

    Although your Week #2 picks didn’t run as well as Week#1, the video provided solid opinions and was highly entertaining. I’m going to find somewhere to write about the updates if you continue doing them.

    It must be burning up in Vegas for white wine on a September evening! Best of luck with your picks & keep the A+ content coming!

    -David Huber

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