Ho Hum….Just Another Winning Week Betting Football
Do I deliver the goods, or what?
They should start calling me Santa Claus.
Only instead of presents and goodies for my little children, I deliver winners.
Last week, I presented a special holiday bonus to my loyal fans. I sprinkled in a few fourth-quarter nail-bitters just to make things interesting. Call it action nutmeg. I don’t want everyone out there getting spoiled. Winning money betting football can’t be that easy, can it? It can’t really be as easy as I’m making it out to be.
So, I busted my bookie’s balls with Baltimore teaser money, and got a shitload of entertainment value as an added bonus. Gotta’ make it a little fun for the folks who follow the site. Turns out, that game was the best show in town, and I’ve got two broken glasses and a knocked over Christmas tree laying down in the middle of the living room to prove it.
Baltimore came in like a cruise ship sailing back to port. I won’t say I didn’t sweat a little bit in the final two minutes. Like I said, the family Christmas tree hit the floor on that final Vikings touchdown. But hey, we eventually reached the promised land and got the cash. It doesn’t matter how we arrive, first-class air or a Greyhound Bus. What matters was — we made it to the bank and grabbed the cash.
More deposit slips!
The Philadelphia-Detroit under bet didn’t turn out so well. Of course, I capped the game perfectly, all the planets lined up, and then I got blown up the Eagles’ rushing game against versus Lions’ defense skating on ice. How were only 8 POINTS scored at halftime, then there were 54 POINTS scored by game’s end? With a foot of snow on the ground! Miserable shits. I’m still livid about losing that bet (a push, depending on if you grabbed the early number). But let’s all keep our emotions in check. Man’s got to control his emotions. It’s all about the long run. Betting football is a marathon, not a sprint. Besides, suspicious people are starting to follow me when I leave the bank.
Last Sunday, we ended up going 2-1-1 for a .9 unit return on investment. So, go ahead — burn me in effigy because I only made you a tiny bit of scratch. I know you’ve got bills to pay and Christmas presents to buy. I realize you’re counting on me. But I can’t hit it out of the park every week. I’m good. But I’m not perfect.
Here’s something to ponder. At least you get honesty here. I don’t bullshit my people. Let the bustout kings and backbiters do that. They’re flooding e-mail boxes with their “Locks of the Year” this time of the season, because they know people are desperate. In reality, they’re hitting like 48 percent winners, while charging hundreds of dollars for picks, and calling themselves “professional handicappers” when all they really are is scamming bullshit artists. Why pay them a dime when you can get my 62 percent winners here for free, plus the complimentary circus?
Of course, if you could send a little sugar my way, I’d sure appreciate it.
The record speaks for itself: Last season…..191 total plays and 34 percent return on investment. This season…..145 plays and 63 percent return on investment. Holy shit, what’s that? I’ve doubled my bankroll! And were not even in the playoffs yet!
The choice is yours. Follow the ass jokers in the daily newspaper with their shoddy records against the spread, and maybe you can buy your wife a nice spice rack for Christmas, if you’ve got any credit remaining on your last charge card. Or, you can be like me and walk up to the jewelry counter at Macy’s, start pointing at silver and gold, and fork over cash. I don’t even pay attention to “sales.” Yeah, go ahead and gift wrap it up for me, baby. And make it a pretty bow. Follow my picks, and you won’t even have to weasel around pecking at the price tags like some kind of loser. As for me, I always like to watch their eyes when I’m peeling off $100 bills buying my friends and relatives expensive jewelry, just for shits and giggles.
What kind of Christmas you want your wife and kids to have? You tell me.
But hey, I don’t like to brag. So, let’s get on to this week’s games and more winners.
NOLAN DALLA: 2013 NFL SEASON RECORD
81 WINS — 59 LOSSES — 5 PUSHES
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 2 WINS 1 LOSSES 1 PUSH (+$250)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $16,317.
NET GAIN/LOSS: plus $6,317.
BEST BETS: 13–15–2
THIS WEEK’S PLAYS: This week, there are 11 plays. $6,430 in action.
Tampa Bay +5.5 vs. San Francisco (-110) — $550 to win $500
SFO gets the publicity, but meanwhile TB appears to have turned things around, winners of 4 of last 5 games. A terrible spot for SFO, following biggest win of the season last week versus SEA, and now traveling east across three time zones playing what should be a loose team with nothing to lose. Usually a dangerous spot for the favorite. I’ll also surely fade QB Kaepernick anytime he’s on the road laying a high number like this. SFO rarely blows anyone out when it wins.
Tennessee +3 vs. Arizona (-120) — $600 to win $500
I’m not drinking whatever they’re serving in the punch bowl in Phoenix. Looks like another live home dog to me.
Cleveland +1 vs. Chicago (-110) — $330 to win $300
Huge mistake to change QBs with McCown playing so well in the backup role for CHI, who are now back in the playoff hunt. Terrible spot for the CHI offense, now on the road, playing against a very underrated defense. Hopefully, the CLEVE can score and pull the upset. But I’m looking for some mistakes from the always-mistake prone Cutler.
Houston +5.5 vs. Indianapolis (-110) — $550 to win $500
First Half: Houston +3 (-110) — $440 to win $400
Team Total: Houston Over 20 (-110) — $660 to win $600 <<<BEST BET>>>
Another live dog here. The key was watching how HOU reacted on offense last week when Schaub came back into the game in the third quarter. The team completely turned it around, and probably should have won the game (yes, it was against JAX). HOU defense is certainly a force (ranked near the top of every category). Schaub now starts and will clearly have something to prove. Meanwhile, INDY has looked dreadful the last month, especially in the first half, and especially on defense. We are getting some favorable numbers, which make me jump all over HOU where ever possible. By the way, this is a hard bet to make since I have INDY OVER 8.5 WINS and still need to get one more victory this season. But this is too compelling not to play the dog. LATE NOTE: As Gary Phillips pointed out, Schaub isn’t starting this game.
Jacksonville +3 vs. Buffalo (-110) — $440 to win $400
Teaser: Jacksonville +8.5 with Tennessee +9 (-110) — $1,100 to win $1,000 <<<BEST BET>>>
Teaser: Jacksonville +8.5 with Kansas City +.5 (-110) — $1,100 to win $1,000 <<<BEST BET>>>
The anchor in the mini-teaser wheel is JAX, which is another team that’s playing well and appears to be playing tough to close out the season. JAX has won 4 of 5 outright. BUFF has lost all four road games started my QB Manuel, including getting blown out in a similar spot last week at Tampa. Even if we think this is a toss up against BUFF, that means the Wong Teaser comes into play, grabbing the TD+. Nice combinations with live TENN playing at home versus ARZ which is uncharacteristically a road favorite this week, and KC which should be able to take care of things at OAK this week, especially after the DEN loss on Thursday, which gives KC now something to play for (division title, home field advantage).
First Half Team Total: NY Giants Over 9 (-110) — $330 to win $300
NYG have mailed it in for the season, but I think they still have enough weapons to put up points at home. Looks like a bad spot for SEA, playing a second straight road game against a team they might take lightly. Look for NYG to make a game of this, and at least score a few points. Anyone ever seen a team total this low for a Giants home game in the Tom Coughlin era?
First Half Team Total: NY Jets Over 7 (-110) — $330 to win $300
Could be a sucker play, but I’ll go with an over on any NFL team when the total is this low.
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS: 2-1-1 (+250)
Detroit at Philadelphia UNDER 54 ($550 to win $500) <<<BEST BET>>> PUSH
Teaser: Baltimore -.5 / Oakland +8.5 ($550 to win $500) LOSER
Teaser: Baltimore -.5 / NY Jets +3.5 ($550 to win $500) WINNER
Team Total: Tennessee OVER 17.5 -120 ($360 to win $300) WINNER
PENDING NFL FUTURES WAGERS (will be graded and added to results at season’s end)
DALLAS COWBOYS UNDER 8.5 WINS (-125) —– Wagering $750 to win $600 in trouble (need Dallas to go 1-2 or worse in last three games)
NEW YORK GIANTS OVER 9 WINS (-105) —– Wagering $1,050 to win $1,000 LOSER
GREEN BAY PACKERS UNDER 10.5 WINS (-115) —– Wagering $575 to win $500 WINNER
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS UNDER 7.5 WINS (+105) *BEST BET* —– Wagering $1,500 to win $1,575 WINNER
NEW ORLEANS OVER 9 WINS (-165) —– Wagering $1,650 to win $1,000 WINNER
ST. LOUIS RAMS OVER 7.5 WINS (-110) —– Wagering $440 to win $400 almost certain to lose, must go 3-0
BALTIMORE RAVENS OVER 8.5 WINS (-110) —– Wagering $1,100 to win $1,000 could go either way, need Ravens to go 2-1 in final 3
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS OVER 8.5 WINS (-110) —– Wagering $880 to win $800 looks good, need just one more win
OAKLAND RAIDERS UNDER 5.5 (-180) — Wagering $1,800 to win $1,000 looks very good, Raiders must go 2-1 in three tough remaining games to lose
NOLAN DALLA: 2012 FINAL NFL SEASON RECORD
98 WINS – 87 LOSSES – 6 PUSHES —– (+ 34.6 units / 1 unit = $100)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
ENDING BANKROLL: $13,460.
NET GAIN: +$3,460
BEST BETS OF THE WEEK: 14-7-0