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Posted by on Nov 10, 2018 in Blog, Essays | 4 comments

NFL Week #10 [Who in the Hell Buys Raiders’ Merchandise?]


Capitalists are funny creatures.

Some enterprising genius, probably with an MBA and $90,000 in student debt, thought Oakland Raiders gear would become the hot new wave here in Las Vegas this fall.  Given the hapless NFL franchise is scheduled to move here in 2020, it’s somewhat understandable believing Raiders’ merchandise might be a hot seller.

However, we’re now more than midway through the 2018 regular season and it’s pretty damned obvious — THE RAIDERS SUCK.  The piss-poor Raiders might be the worst team in the league, and that’s really saying something if you ‘ve watched a Buffalo Bills’ game this last month.  At least the Bills have a decent defense.  Oakland is terrible.  They’ve won just one game so far, and are 1-7.

So, you might figure the business moguls at the Planet Hollywood mall sports store — which must cost a fortune in lease payments — would trunk the garbage that nobody wants and certainly won’t sell.  It’s going nowhere.  Might as well be selling women’s bathing suits in Saudia Arabia.  Las Vegas is already saturated with Raiders’ gear anyway, so nothing in this store is either new nor original.

While walking through the mall today (headed to my car), I couldn’t help but notice a shitload of Oakland Raiders merchandise stocked in the front window and all over the store.  Racks of Raider garbage.  Worse, the black and silver rags were ridiculously priced.  We’re talking, one small t-shirt sells for $34.50.  [Note:  I snapped the photo above]

What the fuck?

Now, I’m no sports marketing guy and I don’t know shit about business.  But if I owned that store, I’d cardboard box up all the Raiders garbage and stick in in a trash can storage facility.  Then, replace it with Rams, Saints, Patriots, and Chiefs gear.  I’ll bet the good shit cheering the winningest team would fly off the racks.  Hell, they probably should even stock up some Dallas Cowboy’s gear.  That shit will certainly sell to the dopes who have been gobbling up Cowboys stuff for the past 22 seasons in which time the beloved Cowjokes have won like three playoffs games.  As I said, there’s a sucker born every minute, and a great many suckers continue to enable Jerry Jones and his joke of a circus.  Once Dallas’ season is finished, come mid-December, maybe they can put in some Houston Texans stuff, which sppears headed for the playoffs.

As for the Oakland trash, when the awful Raiders do move here in a couple of seasons, crack open the boxes, blow off the sand and dust, and hope to hell the team isn’t such an embarrassment that they might sell a few jerseys.  If not, then paint them blue and silver.  Dallas fans won’t know the fucking difference.

As I said — capitalists really amuse me sometimes.

Oh, now let’s try and make some money.

Here it goes, with my thought on NFL Week #10 below.





CURRENT BALANCE:  $9,636. [- $364.]

OVERALL W-L RECORD:  29 wins / 32 loses / 3 pushes



LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:  2-2-0 (-$280)

GAME TOTAL:  Atlanta / Washington Under 48 (-110) — LOST $550

GAME TOTAL:   Baltimore/ Pittsburgh Under 47.5 (-110) — WON $300

GAME LINE:  Buffalo +10 vs. Chicago (-110) — LOST $330

GAME LINE:  New Orleans +2 vs. LA Rams (-110) — WON $300


THIS WEEK’S PICKS:  (Note:  All lines are taken from Westgate Las Vegas as of Saturday afternoon):

Last week, sportsbooks suffered their worst loss in several years.  The public won big.  Most of the popular teams that closed as big favorites covered easily, which means a higher than usual percentage of parlays and teasers also cashed.  Las Vegas sportsbooks reported a bloodbath.  But I’m not shedding any tears.

Swelled public confidence sets up a unique situation this week.  I’m betting most of the pigs, the bad teams no one else wants, as well as totals which aren’t popular with bettors.  My reasoning is as follows — the public doesn’t win often and certainly won’t produce such outlier results two weeks in a row.  Combine some added betting value on the pig teams and totals this week, and that produces added incentive.  I’m looking for a market correction.

Twenty-five years ago, I coined the term “contrarian” and applied it to sports betting for the first time.  The term took off, which had been borrowed from stock investing.  I’m expecting contrary results than what is normally expected.  That’s a contrarian.  As I said, I was the first to write about it.  You can look it up.

So, I’ve taken the most popular public picks from and faded all the plays where the public leans at least 2-1 (66 percent).  That creates the following plays for this week, all of which I’m betting.  Hold your nose.  These teams really stink:

Cleveland Browns +6 vs. Atlanta (-110) — Risking $440 to win $400

Comments:  I kinda’ like this play anyway.  Browns home yet again for third straight week, shook off coaches firing, plus Atlanta has not played well on the road this season.

Oakland Raiders +10 vs. LA Chargers (-110) — Risking $440 to win $400

Comments:  I need a gas mask to bet this team, the Raiders smell so bad.  Good thing is, Chargers might be due for a down performance, especially on road second straight week off a big win at Seattle in Week #9.  Give me the 10 points.

Tennessee +7 vs. New England (-110) — Risking $440 to win $400

Comments:  New England is the NFL’s darling again, which means it might be a good time to fade.  Tennessee plays better at home, and is now back in the playoff hunt.  Let’s hope for a close game than the line indicates.

Arizona +16 vs. Kansas City (-110) — Risking $440 to win $400

Comments:  I might have played this game anyway, since the line is so high.  Kansas City can’t roll up 40 points every single week, can they?  I’m as impressed as anyone, but perhaps Cardinals off the bye will get their act together well enough to keep this within the margin.


I’m adding these contrarian plays, as well, for smaller amounts:

Buffalo +7 vs. NY Jets (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200

MNF:  NY Giants +3 vs. San Francisco (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200


One teaser:

6-PT TEASER:  Philadelphia (-1) vs. Dallas / Washington +9.5 vs. Tampa (-120) — Risking $600 to win $500



Arizona Cardinals OVER 5.5 wins -180 — Wagering $450 to win $250   2-6

Buffalo Bills OVER 6 wins EVEN — Wagering $400 to win $400   2-6

Cincinnati Bengals OVER 6.5 wins -170 — Wagering $680 to win $400   5-3

Dallas Cowboys UNDER 8.5 wins +110 — Wagering $500 to win $550   3-5

Detroit Lions UNDER 7.5 wins EVEN — Risking $400 to win $400   3-5

Houston Texans UNDER 8.5 wins +120 — Risking $400 to win $480   6-3

Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 9 wins -145 — Risking $725 to win $500   3-5

Indianapolis Colts UNDER 6.5 wins +170 — Risking $400 to win $680   3-5

New Orleans Saints OVER 9.5 wins -145 — Risking $725 to win $500    7-1

Seattle Seahawks UNDER 8 wins (Best Bet) -150 — Risking $1,500 to win $750  4-4




  1. What an ugly looking card. It seems as if it will all or nothing at the end of the weekend. Either a sweep of wins or they all crash and burn as huge losses as all these shitty teams prove to be as bad as advertised

  2. Oakland certainly isn’t the worst team in the league when Buffalo is playing Peterman at QB. Who thought Matt Barkley could be such an upgrade over anyone?

    It is about time to take a look at some of these crappy teams and fade some darlings. Remember the Patriots in 2007? The last half of the year they were 2-6 ATS. I do not expect the Chiefs to continue to be an ATS darling over the back half of the year.

    But who cares about all this when it’s playoff time in the CFL?

    • Nice timing on this. Well done.

  3. WOW! Impressive contrarian! Best week I’ve ever seen you have. Congrats!

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