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Posted by on Sep 13, 2015 in Blog | 3 comments

NFL Week 1: Picks and Predictions

 

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NOLAN DALLA — 2015 NFL SEASON RECORD

0 WINS – 0 LOSSES — 0 PUSHES

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $10,000.

NET GAIN/LOSS:  + / – 0

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  0 – 0 – 0 

 

The NFL season began on Thursday night.  Two plays (teasers) were posted in advance and are still alive.  See below.

Note that I begin each and every season with a $10,000 bankroll (after my season-win total bets are placed).  Each week, I make plays based on the current lines which are then released either Saturday night or Sunday morning.

If you want some honest analysis, and occasional entertainment — then welcome to my site.  If you wager money on these picks, then please do so at your own risk.  If you prefer to fade me and my picks, well that’s fine too.

 

THIS WEEK’S BETS (7 plays):

[POSTED THURSDAY]   2-team 6-point Teaser:  New England -1 with Tennessee +9 — wagering $1,100 to win $1,000          …..See Thursday report.

[POSTED THURSDAY]   2 -team 6-point Teaser:  New England -1 with Atlanta +9 — wagering $1,100 to win $1,000          …..See Thursday report.

Carolina vs. Jacksonville UNDER 41.5 — wagering $330 to win $300          ….JAX have been a solid UNDER play at home (5 UNDERS / 3 OVERS last season), and assuming the game stays close should play close to the best for both teams, ending in a late FG and a 20-17 type of game.  Interesting to note JAX general improvement defensively last season, allowing just 19 PPG last six games of regular season after getting ripped apart during the first ten games.  That indicates some gelling of the defense.  Meanwhile, JAX offense has been horrid, ranking dead last in the NFL in recent years.  QB Bortles enters his second season and should improve, but he also enters this game with a new offensive system, a new Offensive coordinator, and a new offensive line coach.  Moreover, Bortles won’t have two-time Pro Bowl tight end Julius Thomas for first three games because of broken hand.  Hard to see an explosion of points here in the first game from this offense.  For CAR, this has never been an explosive offense aside from Cam Newton’s first season.  He’s been rather pedestrian since then (one of the lowest pass percentage completions in the league), and won’t be helped any by losing his top WR target from last year, who is out the entire season with injury.  His two wideouts for this game:  Ted Ginn, who has just 83 catches while starting five games for three different teams over the last five seasons, and Corey Brown, who had 21 receptions as an undrafted rookie last season.  Big props to TE Olsen, however, one of the league’s best.  I’m looking for this game between the two cats to go UNDER a total which I’d put somewhere in the 39 range.

Indianapolis vs. Buffalo UNDER 45 — wagering $330 to win $300          ….Everything seems to chart to the UNDER here, as INDY has gone UNDER the number in five straight dating back to last season, while BUFF has gone UNDER in 7 of their last 8, the obvious consequence of a solid defense, but a poor passing attack.  Look for BUFF to run the ball heavily and for the visitor to struggle in the opener at the road favorite.  Not sure if offseason additions of RB Fore and WR Johnson are going to pay off immediately.  We get a high game total due to the INDY reputation and Luck factor, which seems like a solid fade on the road versus what is projected to be a solid .500 team.  I believe Rex Ryan’s new team can slow the pace down enough, especially with improved RB addition, to keep this game UNDER a high number, especially for a Week 1 game where one of the offenses comes in with obvious limitations. 

St. Louis +4 vs. Seattle — wagering $220 to win $200          ….SEA has been a money team in recent years (15-6 last 21 away games), even on the road, which makes this seem like a shaky contrarian wager.  However, I think we’ll see some mean regression this season as SEA lays more points than usual, including +4 here to a well-coached 7-9 team from last season with a very solid defense.    STL have also played SEA tough when at home, winning last two outright as dogs and covering all three (4-1 ATS in last 5 at STL).  With one of the league’s better defenses and a solid front four facing a SEA OL with some major question marks, and lots of fresh energy going into the new season, I’ll take the home dog here plus the generous number of points, also catching a key number (4). Super Bowl losers are just 2-7-1 ATS last ten seasons in following year Week 1, which indicates a fade against SEA.  

[BEST BET]  Arizona -2 vs. New Orleans — wagering $440 to win $400          …..Hard to understand this line, with ARZ, an 11-win team from last season facing a NOR 7-win team that struggles badly on the road in recent years.  Why are ARZ only favored by less than a FG?  Line should be -3 or perhaps -4.  One presumes the image of the old Saints as a high-octane offense still resonates in the public mind.  But that era might be over.  NOR defense regressed badly last season (ranked 31st) and doesn’t appear to inspire confidence coming into 2015.  Worse, NOR lost their biggest threat in TE Graham, who left for Seattle.  NOR also lost RB Pierre Thomas and WR Kenny Stills, who led all receivers in catches and yards, as well as LB Curtis Lofton, who had a team-high 125 tackles in 2014.  How do you fill those gaps?  But the biggest reason I’m fading my beloved Saints this season is because of a horrible offensive line that was badly exposed and couldn’t pass block for QB Brees.  Even NOR fans I spoke to in offseason seem in a fog as to how pathetic this offensive line looked as Brees was continuously hammered and forced to throw many passes early, resulting in a high in interceptions for his career in 2014.  Now, he’s lost his favorite “go to” target?  Fading NOR seems the way to go.  As for ARZ, this is certainly a well-coached team that is clearly healthier than last season.  Remember, Cards went 11-5 SU and were down to their 4th string QB by season’s end (last three games).  Now, Carson Palmer comes in healthy, which should improve offensive numbers.  Not a big believer in Palmer, but he is 13-2 SU since midway through 2013 when he assumed starting role.  We have the home team, healthy, clearly more solid all around, facing a terrible road team historically with major question marks on both the OL and defense.  If that’s not the basis of a solid wager, I don’t know what is.

First Half Wager:  Washington +3 (-120) vs. Miami — wagering $240 to win $200          …..MIA is projected as a playoff contender and could win 9 or 10 games.  But I’m not so sure they’re in the class of teams that should be laying a FG on the road in the opener in the 1H.  WASH is perhaps the NFL’s worst coached team and reportedly has major OL issues, which doesn’t inspire confidence.  Backup QB Cousins is also starting.  Still, I think there’s enough talent on this team to keep it close early, and against a MIA team that’s not high scoring, I’ll take the home dog, in the opener, catching the key number of +3.  

 

OTHER THOUGHTS:

— I badly want to bet CHI +7, because that’s clearly the right side as the home divisional dog.  Smart money will be on the CHI assuming it stays at this number, versus the obvious dumb money fan favorite of a public team.  Trouble is, GB has dominated this series lately (5 straight covers), and with that powerful offense, -7 is certainly within reason as a cover for the far better team.  There are better opportunities on the board than to bet on Jay Cutler facing Aaron Rogers.

— Lean strongly to NYG +6 at DAL in the Sunday night game.  These teams usually play close games, and DAL has not been good in the role of home favorite.  However, NYG have too many question marks right now for me to make a wager.  I might change my mind if the line moves to +6.5 or +7.

 

SEASON WIN TOTALS (WAGERS):

Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 8.5 (+115) — wagering $2,000 to win $2,300

Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 9.5 (-110) — wagering $1,050 to win $1,000

NY Jets UNDER 7.5 (-120 /-135) — wagering $1,275 to win $1,000

Tennessee Titans OVER 5.5 (-150) — wagering $450 to win $300

Cleveland Browns UNDER 6.5 (-170) — wagering $510 to win $300

3 Comments

  1. Nice start to the season, well done

  2. Nice picks this week, a few more like that and you’ll forget last year.

  3. love your picks, where can i get them???

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