Two weeks to go. Ten more picks to make. Hundreds of thousands of dollars within grasp.
It’s any NFL handicapper’s dream.
Last week started off marvelously with 26 wins on the early games. Then, my picks crashed with 9 losses on the late games. Had either Denver or San Francisco won and covered, I’d be in first place right now. But, I’ll gladly accept the final 26-9 weekly record. If I can post anywhere near these numbers in the final two weeks, I feel confident I’ll win it.
Right now, between all the tickets (contest entries), we have 347 combined wins on 560 completed total picks — which is a 63 percent win rate. Collectively speaking, all the tickets are +134 wins above the .500 mark. These are numbers any NFL handicapper would kill for.
There were 1,301 entrants in this year’s Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest. $10,000 was invested and spread across 10 entries on two contests. We’ve already locked up $25,000 in prize money (for one of the early contests), so we are net +$15,000 and free-rolling on a much bigger profit.
MAIN EVENT REPORT
Following the results of Week 16, here’s the current status of the Main Event (season long contest–all weeks combined 1-18):
– One ticket is alone in 4th place. It’s 1.5 wins (points) behind the leader.
– One ticket is tied for 6th place. It’s 2.5 wins (points) behind the leader.
– One ticket is tied for 19th place. It’s 4 wins (points) behind the leader.
– The top-20 finishers will collect prize money ($200,000 for first place). Right now, three of my tickets would finish in the money, worth about $75,000 (that’s an estimate based on the ties chopping up some of the prize money).
– One ticket is tied for 46th place. While this ticket is now out of the money, with a strong closing two weeks, it could still move up into the money.
– The remaining three tickets are all ranked in the top-150. However, they have no chance to win the championship title. If any of these tickets finishes near perfect, they could still finish in the money. But these are now long shots.
SECOND HALF CONTEST REPORT
There’s more good news. In the second-half contest, $75,000 goes to first place and the top-five spots make the money (this is based on the results of NFL weeks 10-18):
– One ticket is tied for 3rd place.
– One ticket is tied for 6th place.
– Two tickets are tied for 16th place (yes, we have *two* tickets in 16th place).
– Two tickets are tied for 26th place (yes, really).
– Six tickets are ranked in the top-40!
Again, considering that 1,301 entries are live, these overall results are way off the charts. No one has even close to so many tickets in contention. The most I’ve seen from anyone else is TWO tickets in contention. We have FOUR in the main event. And we have SIX in the second half contest. Like I said, this has been a great run.
GOALS AND PROJECTIONS
Here’s what’s needed in the last two weeks, and ten picks, based on my projections and last year’s template numbers:
TICKET 1: Currently at 53 points, anything 3-7 or better likely gets us into the prize money. As for hitting a goal, a 6-4 record rom this point forward probably keeps us in place with at least $30,000 in a payout. A 7-3 or better record likely gives us a shot to win the big prize. At a minimum, it will take 7-3 on this ticket to win.
TICKET 3: Currently at 52 points, just take what I wrote above and add the need for one extra win. Great thing about this ticket is it’s 1.5 wins (points) behind the leader in the second half contest, and could win $75K with a very strong closing two weeks. I say we need to go 8-2 on this ticket to have any shot. It’s very important to manage this ticket wisely, as it’s got huge upside in *two* contests.
TICKET 2: Currently at 50.5 points, this ticket would get a small cut of a tie for 19th and 20th place (probably $2K or so). I’d be happy if this climbed a little higher, but I’m also pleased if it returns any profit. We probably need a 6-4 record at a minimum on this ticket in the final two weeks to get into the money.
TICKET 7: Currently at 49 points, needs help to get into the money. However, this ticket is just 2 wins (points) behind reaching the money in the second half contest. I’d love to see this ticket get something, but it’s a longshot. It probably needs to go 7-3 to have any chance, but 8-2 or better would put it in contention for a payout.
TICKET 4 / TICKET 5 / TICKET 6: Currently at 47.5 points, there’s not enough time or picks left to make up the difference. Most of these are out of contention and need 9-1 on the final ten picks to get into the money. However, in an oddity of varying selections on each ticket to this point, Ticket 5 is only 2.5 points out of cashing in the second half contest. This will need to go 8-2 to have any shot.
SEE ALL SUPERCONTEST STANDINGS HERE
SEE ALL SUPERCONTEST SECOND HALF CONTEST STANDINGS HERE
I’m also posting the Westgate lines on the Week 17 games:
