NOLAN DALLA: 2012 POSTED SEASON RECORD
40 WINS – 32 LOSSES – 2 PUSHES —– (+ 11.575 units / 1 unit = $100)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $11,575.
BEST BETS OF THE WEEK: 4-3-0
5 wins and 4 losses (1 push) last week. I did manage to gain +8.8 units which is the real goal. As this NFL season approaches the midway point, it’s nice to be in the black in all categories.
On to Week 8 — Making 9 bets and wagering $3,330.
Note: All wagers are for amusement-purposes only. I bear no responsibility for those who may decide to follow my plays.
NFL WEEK 8 PLAYS:
JACKSONVILLE / GREEN BAY UNDER 47 (-110) — for 4 units
A running game may not be necessary to win in the NFL these days, but if ever there was a game for the Packers to try and improve their dismal rushing attack, this is it. JAX is one of NFL’s worst defenses against run……which should point to a more balanced attack by Packers which I think eats up more clock. Combined with JAX inability to score much makes this an attractive total for an UNDER play. Looking for GB to build a lead, sit on it, and run the ball a lot in the second half. Prediction: Green Bay wins 30-13
PITTSBURGH / WASHINGTON OVER 46 (-110) — for 3 units
I got somewhat fortunate with PITT/CINCY game cashing UNDER last week, but way that contest played out revealed PITT is clearly an OVER team….no running attack, 50+ passes per game……now they face dismal defense that gives up lots of big plays…..I’ll also be glad to bet WASH in an OVER situation. Reasonable number of points for both offenses to crack. Prediction: Washington wins 30-20
SAN FRANCISCO / ARIZONA OVER 38.5 (-110) — for 3 units
Two factors at work here — going with my customary OVER play in Phoenix as well as a very low total for a MNF game. Prediction: San Francisco wins 31-16
CLEVELAND +1 vs. SAN DIEGO (+115) — for 3 units
This is the kind of game a Norv Turner-coached team typically loses….a road game versus an outclassed opponent. Not much compelling logic here, but I’ll go with history that San Diego is pretty much the underachieving team we always seem to see…..also encouraged by some competitiveness by the Browns the last month, or so. Also, an NFL probe into Chargers and some substance issues, could be a distraction. Prediction: Cleveland wins 20-17
PHILADELPHIA -1 vs. ATLANTA (-110) — for 3 units
After the bye week, this looks like an all-or-nothing game for Eagles, which I believe are due for a good game (which I don’t usually factor as a handicapping tool). Eagles have been flat all season and I’m always glad to ride the anti-Eagle train. But this looks to be the perfect game for Eagles to put together a good game, while not sure the same motivation exists in Falcons camp, which is going to win division by default. Prediction: Philadelphia wins 27-20
TEASER: GREEN BAY -8 / MIAMI + 7.5 (-110) — for 5 units <BEST BET OF THE WEEK>
Rare for me to tease a heavy favorite down, but great spot for Packers who should win this one by double digits…..tough to see JAX going on road second straight week after crushing disappointment of OAK loss last week, now playing against motivated Packer team coming off two road wins that now seems to be peaking / Hard to see NYJ getting up for game and prepping well after emotional devasation of game they should have won at New England…..MIA-NYJ game ealier this season was a nail-bitter, and if anything MIA is now playing even better. Love Dolphins teased up over the TD.
1Q: INDY / TENN OVER 9.5 (-125) — for 2 units
I’ll continue to ride OVER in Titans games where I can…..reasonable vig price here on a team that’s 6-1 to the OVER this season…..INDY also capable of producing points…..two bad defenses
1Q: WASHINGTON + .5 vs. PITTSBURGH (-120) — for 3 units
Redskins perfect in first quarter…have covered every game this season…which shows good prep by coach Shanahan and solid (mistake-free) play by QB Griffin makes me stay with WASH again this week.
1Q: NEW ORLEANS vs. DENVER +.5 (-110) — for 4 units
I’ll take the Saints at a toss up price getting a half point in any quarter against any team. Too good a value to pass up, especially versus a mediocre opponent that tends to start slow in most games.
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
GREEN BAY -4.5 (-110) <BEST BET OF THE WEEK> — for 6 units….WON 6 units
ARIZONA +7 (-120) — for 4 units….PUSH
ARIZONA/MINNESOTA OVER 40.5 (-110) — for 3 units….LOST 3.3 units
JACKSONVILLE/OAKLAND UNDER 44 (-110) — for 3 units….LOST 3.3 units
PITTSBURGH/CINCINNATI UNDER 45 (-110) — for 5 units….WON 5 units
FIRST HALF: DETROIT/CHICAGO OVER 20.5 (-110) <MNF> — for 3 units….LOST 3.3 units
FIRST QUARTER: WASHINGTON +.5 (-105) — for 4 units….WON 4 units
FIRST QUARTER: TENNESSEE/BUFFALO OVER 9.5 (-110) — for 3 units….WON 3 units
FIRST QUARTER: DETROIT +.5 (-105) <MNF> — for 3 units….LOST 3.3 units
TWO-TEAM 6-POINT TEASER: CAROLINA +7.5 with TAMPA +7.5 (-110) — for 4 units….WON 4 units