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Posted by on Oct 21, 2012 in Blog, Sports Betting | 0 comments

NFL Plays — Week 7

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NOLAN DALLA:  2012 POSTED SEASON RECORD

35 WINS – 28 LOSSES – 1 PUSHES —– (+ 6.95 units / 1 unit = $100)

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $10.695.

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  3-3-0

Coming off a 6-5 week, which could have been a much better day…..but a missed 37-yard FG with few seconds left in the first half of the Arizona game cost us an 8.4 unit swing on the OVER…..We lost another 11.25 unit swing on the Lions/Eagles game OVER 9.5 in the first quarter — four illegal motion penalties in Eagles territory gave us a 6-0 first quarter lead, rather than a 10-0 lead, which would have been a monster day if just a play or two had gone our way.  Steamed we didn’t go 7-4 or perhaps 8-3.  But this is still a season in the black, so far — which is encouraging. 

On to Week 7 — Making ten bets and wagering $4,145.

Note:  All wagers are for amusement-purposes only.  I bear no responsibility for those who may decide to follow my plays.

 

NFL WEEK 7 PLAYS

 

GREEN BAY -4.5 (-110) <BEST BET OF THE WEEK> — for 6 units

Packers appear to be back on track now after demolishing Houston in an impressive road win last week.  Rare to see Houston so badly outplayed on both sides of the ball.  I watched the post-game of that very closely and noted that in interiews Packers were saying knew that was a “must win” situation, and now must continue that momentum this week in what should be an easier game.  I see no letdown here with a team that should start peaking, especially on offense.  I just don’t think St. Louis can keep pace in this game — especially from a woefully inconsistent offense — and so I’ll go with a rare road favorite and lay what I think is a reasonable number of points.  Let’s call this one Green Bay wins 34-20.

 

ARIZONA +7 (-120) — for 4 units

Is Minnesota really deserving to be laying a touchdown?  I don’t think so.  I’m as impressed as anyone with what this team has done, but even with some concerns about Cardinals lack of offense, this number is tilted too generous towards the dog.  Skelton gets the nod this week after Kolb was knocked out due to poor OL play….I think that may boost a struggling offense this week, which should show some improvement.  No one can deny the Cardinal defense has been spectacular.  Too many points to pass up and a linemaker overraction to the Arizona QB change.

 

ARIZONA/MINNESOTA OVER 40.5 (-110) — for 3 units

A bit of a contrarian play with some hedge potential.  Assuming you play the Cardinals and the points, all it takes is Arizona to get to the 17-point mark in order to lock up a free-roll on the side and total.  I’m looking for a 23-20 kind of game here, ether way.  Cards have scored 17+ in every game this season.

 

JACKSONVILLE/OAKLAND UNDER 44 (-110) — for 3 units

Two horrid offenses and yet a pretty high total.  The Pittsburgh-Oakland game three weeks ago was a shootout which I think boosted this number up by a point or two, but this should be closer to a crawl.  Oakland has reportedly been insisting they want to get back to a power running game and this appears to be the perfect oppponent to exploit (JAX ranked 30th in the NFL against the run).  For the total to go OVER, one assumes both teams must put up some points.  I don’t necessarily trust BOTH offenses enough with this task, so I’m looking for a decent showing perhaps by the hometeam Raiders and another ugly mess by what appears to be the NFL’s worst team.  Looking 27-13 here in favor of Oakland.

 

PITTSBURGH/CINCINNATI UNDER 45 (-110) — for 5 units

Love this total to go UNDER….Cincinnati has looked bad in both losses in recent weeks….combined with some concerns about Steelers rushing game, which is non-existent.  These two teams seem historically play low-scoring games, and I see no reason to expect an explosion in points from either team this week.  Looking like 27-17 either way.  Ripe for a Cincinnati upset if they can force some turnovers.

 

FIRST HALF:  DETROIT/CHICAGO OVER 20.5 (-110) <MNF> — for 3 units

A little sugar on Monday Night Football….tend to like OVERs in first half when we can shave a victory on the inside of three touchdowns.  In other words, barring an anemic offense, I’ll always go OVER 20.5 or lower…..some bonus reasons here with two very qualified QBs (though Stafford has been a disapointment, this season — unless it’s the last two minutes of the game).  There’s enough firepower on these two teams to break the 14-7 mark.  I say one team leads it 17-7 at the half.

 

FIRST QUARTER:  WASHINGTON +.5 (-105) — for 4 units

Redskins have been a first quarter money machine.  Must be Shanahan’s prep and some outstanding play from a QB that should be MVP candidate, who WHO DOES NOT MAKE MISTAKES.  Saw stat that only 9 percent of Griffin’s passes have been off target this season (some stat now measures accuracy, and apparently, Griffin is the NFL leader in hitting his target).  Of course, Redksins play division rival NYG this week, who have inexplicably fallen behind by two touchdowns EARLY in a couple of home games this season (they did come back to win both times).  Something isn’t clicking right when NYG come out of the locker room while WASH seems to consistently be the more prepared team.  WASH also knows they can compete with anyone at the moment, so I will take a very nice price on getting the half point in the first quarter.  Let’s call this one 7-7 for the victory.  WASH perfect 3-0 SU and ATS on the road this season.

 

FIRST QUARTER:  TENNESSEE/BUFFALO OVER 9.5 (-110) — for 3 units

Reasonable number that should probably be shaded up to -130 or so if you want to go OVER what would be a trap number at 10….BUFF has gone 4-2 to the OVER for full game….while TENN has posed a 5-1 mark OVER.  These are two teams make a lot of mistakes and I say that favors a situation for points.  Let’s look for a 7-3 game at the end of the first break.

 

FIRST QUARTER:  DETROIT +.5 (-105) <MNF> — for 3 units

I see this as a toss-up game….will gladly take a more than capable road dog here in the first quarter getting the hook, on a gift price of reduced -105 vig.  Some concerns that Detroit playing second consecutive tough road opponent after great comeback win at PHILA, but the extra day (MNF) should help here and at least keep Lions focused in the game early. 

 

TWO-TEAM 6-POINT TEASER:  CAROLINA +7.5 with TAMPA +7.5 (-110) — for 4 units

Two nice home dogs more than capable of winning outright….there’s nothing about Dallas that impresses me…..although to be honest I’m still not in the Cam Newton camp (poor leadership from what I see), but this should be a game where the home team plays with some serious intensity (especially after getting hammered at home in a similar spot a few weeks ago versus NYG).  Tough to see Dallas coming off that tough loss and noble defeat last week and going on the road again and blowing anyone out.  Dallas is not the type of team that does that, so I’ll gladly go with a very live dog getting more than a TD / Similar situation in Tampa, where I’ve total given up on the Saints defense which has become and embrassment…..this unit simply has too many holes and no bye week is going to fix the New Orleans problems, especially in the secondary.  One always worries when fading the Saints explosive offense, but this team always seems to struggle on the road in these grass stadium versus division opponents — CAR and TAMPA.  I see another close toss up game here where TAMPA keeps it close enough to cover the inside of a TD on the teaser.

 

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:

Two-Team 6-Point Teaser:  CLEVELAND +8.5 / NY GIANTS + 12.5 (-110) — for 4 units — Win 4 units

Game:  NY GIANTS +6.5 (-110) — for 3 units — Win 3 units

Total:  KANSAS CITY/TAMPA OVER 40.5 (-110) — for 3 uits — Win 3 units

Total:  ST. LOUIS/MIAMI OVER 37.5 (-110) — for 3 units — Lost 3.3 units

Total:  NEW ENGLAND/SEATTLE UNDER 44.5 (-110) — for 4 units — Lost 4.4 units

First Half:  ST. LOUIS/MIAMI OVER 16.5 (-110) — for 4 units — Lost 4.4 units

First Half:  BUFFALO/ARIZONA OVER 19.5 (-110) — for 4 units — Lost 4.4 units

First Half:  GREEN BAY/HOUSTON OVER 21.5 (-110) — for 2 units — Won 2 units

First Quarter:  DETROIT/PHILADELPHIA OVER 9.5 (-125) — for 5 units  <BEST BET OF THE WEEK 1> — Lost 6.25 units

First Quarter:  DETROIT +.5 (-130) — for 5 units   <BEST BET OF THE WEEK 2> — Won 5 units

First Quarter:  BUFFALO +.5 (-120) — for 4 units — Won 5 units

 

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