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Posted by on Nov 21, 2012 in Blog, Sports Betting | 1 comment

NFL Plays — Week 12 (Thanksgiving Day Only)


Billy Kilmer 1960's


67 WINS – 53 LOSSES – 2 PUSHES —– (+ 68.55 units / 1 unit = $100)






Last week’s record was 5 wins and 4 losses.  Most important, the net gain was +9.3 units.  

If there’s one thing I’ve improved this season over the last many years I’ve been posting plays at various public forums (which started in 1997), it’s been with weighing picks and better money management.  

It took me many many years to realize that flat betting gives way too much away when there are stronger than average plays on the board.  Moreover, a pick may be worth playing, but for a smaller amount based on the line or total.  Hence, I strongly recommend varying your bet sizes.  I have more work to do and much more to learn in this area.  But I do want to say that if you only get half your picks right, but weigh the games accurately, you might still be able to produce a nice profit.

I’m making three wagers on Thanksgiving Day games.  Sunday’s plays will be released at the customary time.

Note:  All wagers are for amusement-purposes only.  I bear no responsibility for those who may decide to follow my plays.




WASHINGTON +3.5 vs. DALLAS (-110) — for 5 units

Dallas has been exposed as a fraud….again.  Nothing ever seems to change with the NFL’s perpetually most overrated team.  The comeback “win” at home versus Cleveland last week was a gift from the officials (two absurd calls against the Browns on the last drive in regulation).  Otherwise, Dallas would be reeling right now and Mike Holmgren would have a pen in his hand ready to sign a contract as the next Dallas head coach.  There’s still talk that clueless Jason Garrett is on his way out at season’s end.  Hard to imagine a scenario where he keeps his job.  Anything short of an NFC Championship game appearance probably gets Garrett the axe.  That said, Dallas strikes me as the more desperate (and inconsistent) team at the moment.  Combine this with some fragile WR play and QB Romo’s always shaky presence in the pokcet, and you have all the makings of an upset this week.  Redskins romped to an easy home win last week, clearly a confience builder.  In fact, Redskins have played well on the road, except for a loss at Pittsburgh three weeks ago.  A few other things makes me like the Redskins — QB Griffin coming back to home state for first time (Waco is 90 miles from Dallas)…..offensive line problems for Cowboys (center is out) and Romo coming off seven-sack game (most of his career)….both WASH-DAL games last year decidd by three points or less (and that was with the thoroughly despicable Rex Grossman starting for Washington)……love getting the hook on the 3 with a nice gift.  Indeed, I see this as a three-point game either way.  I also would not be surprised to see Washington have a huge game and win in a blowout (you read it here first).


NEW ENGLAND/NNY JETS UNDER 48 (-110) — for 3 units

Two things make me lean under, albeit for a smaller than average wager.  First, Pats star TE is out, which is their leading TD maker and Brady’s favorite target.  I suspect this will give Patriots offiense one less big option as a downfield target.  Then, there’s the obvious concern that Jets offense may not score much.  In fact, it’s hard to imagine any kind of breakout performance from Sanchez and Co. after what’s been going on in New York the last few weeks.  I’d line this closer to 44 or perhaps 44.5   Losing Growkowski is going to hurt Patriots offense and Jets simply can’t be trusted to score points — setting the stage for what I hope is a nice under and a 27-13 Patriots’ victory.


6-POINT TEASER:  WASHINGTON +9.5 / NEW ENGLAND -1 (-110) — for 6 units

Reasons listed above explain my leans on both WASH and NWE……sure would love to catch +10 with Redskins, but still think there is plenty of value at the +9.5 number with a Dallas team that rarely blows out any opponent.  Teasing NWE down to -1 means all we need to do is win the game.  Normally, I would stay away from a road favorite (I am venehmently opposed to laying points with division road favorites).  But I think the scare NWE experienced from this same Jets team will make Patriots make better adjustments.  Moreoever, NWE is probably a better team now (at least more conssistent) than they were when they beat Jets 29-26 earlier in season…..while Jets may very well be headed off a cliff.




LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:  5 wins and 4 losses and a net gain of 9.3 units

6-POINT TEASER:  MIAMI +8.5 / DENVER -1.5 (-110) — for 5 units — WINNER

WASHINGTON -3.5 vs. PHILADELPHIA (-110) — for 5 units — WINNER

TAMPA -1 vs. CAROLINA (-115) — for 6 units <BEST BET OF THE WEEK> — WINNER

ST. LOUIS -3.5 vs. NY JETS (-105) — for 3 units — LOSER

CLEVELAND / DALLAS UNDER 43.5 (-110) — for 5 units — WINNER

ARIZONA/ATLANTA OVER 44 (-110) — for 4 units – LOSER

FIRST HALF:  ATLANTA -6.5 vs. ARIZONA (-110) — for 4 units — LOSER

FIRST HALF:  KANSAS CITY +3 vs. CINCINNATI (-115) — for 5 units — LOSER

FIRST QUARTER:  NY JETS/ST. LOUIS OVER 7 (-130) — for 6 units — WINNER





1 Comment

  1. Nolan,Enjoying this blog.I enter the comp @sanmanuelcasino.Last week two people had 20/20.No point spreads with 7 o/u.My 17/20 wasn’t even in the top 300.

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