NFL Plays — Week 11
NOLAN DALLA: 2012 POSTED NFL SEASON RECORD
62 WINS – 49 LOSSES – 2 PUSHES —– (+ 59.25 units / 1 unit = $100)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $15,925.
BEST BETS OF THE WEEK: 8-3-0
It’s hard to top last week’s results, posting a public record of 11 wins and 3 losses– for a monster net win of +52.3 units. However, this is no time to celebrate or relax. Trying to stay in the zone with what will hopefully be another profitable week.
Many plays this week are not so much BET ON games as BET AGAINST games. Some teams are starting to implode and those are teams we want to fade this time of year, especially if not laying too many points. That’s the case on a few games this week noted below.
Making nine wagers this week.
Note: All wagers are for amusement-purposes only. I bear no responsibility for those who may decide to follow my plays.
NFL WEEK 11 PLAYS:
POSTED THURSDAY –6-POINT TEASER: MIAMI +8.5 / DENVER -1.5 (-110) — for 5 units
This is the quintessential Wong Teaser, crossing all the key numbers both ways — one with the live dog and the other with the home favorite which should win the game.
First, let’s look at Miami. Both teams playing on Thursday lost in disappointing fashion last week. But the manner in which they lost is key. Buffalo showed great composure in the last-second loss at New England last week, but still suffered an emotionally crushing defeat. Meanwhile, Miami was blown away in a stunning home upset to Tennessee that virtually no one saw coming.
The differences in losses here is the key. Often young, mediocre teams (a tag which apples to both Buffalo and Miami) react from week to week based upon what happened most recently. They are largely motivated by emotions, or the lack thereof. I foresee this being a difficult bounce back game for Buffalo. I don’t see a quick emotional or practical regroup, being fully prepared for this game three days later after taking such a tough loss to the division kingpin. By contrast, Miami fell behind 21-0 early and was out of the game from the start, which sets up what I expect will be a greater sense of eagerness this week and get back on the field to erase that ugly performance. From what I could tell in that loss, Miami exerted almost no effort in the second half trying to make a comeback and decided at halftime to simply stay healthy and start preparing for next week.
Buffalo is now on a three-game losing slide. The season is done The defense is atrocious –surrendering the most points per game of any team (even worse than New Orleans and Jacksonville). Moreover, leading rusher Jackson is out for this game. Miami is probably a slightly better team at the moment, with a 4-5 record which includes two very close losses. I’ll tease the live dog in what I think will be a better emotional state versus a team that figures to be in a hangover mode after that close loss last week. Any team coached by mediocre non-motivator Chan Gailey is a team I usually want to fade anyway, no matter who the opponent.
In other game, you have to like a rising team hitting on all cylinders now playing San Diego, which draws is second straight road game. This would be a bad spot for San Diego anyway, but combine this with the Chargers dismal history in “must win” games like this, and it seems Denver is the safe bet to at least win the game (which is all that’s basically needed with the lay number of 1.5). Denver comes off two straight road wins, never easy to do in the NFL and gets better each week, while San Diego wallows in mediocrity. I’ll go with the team that enjoyed a big comeback win over this same opponent on their home field a month ago. Now, they are home and playing even better ball.
WASHINGTON -3.5 vs. PHILADELPHIA (-110) — for 5 units
Philadelphia is the first team we want to fade for reasons which are obvious. This team has been nothing but a disappointment and appears headed towards a painful rebuilding phase. Eagles are a great fade this week coming off loss to Dallas and now play versus rested Redskins team off bye that should be prepared to put together a strong effort. With QB Vick injury, rookie Foles gets first start, on the road, at division rival — looks like a bad spot. As crazy as it sounds for a 3-6 team, Washington is talking about winning the next three games versus rivals, which gets them to .500 and possibly in the playoff hunt. That might seem ridiculous, but from a handicapping standpoint I think this shows Washington is still looking to this season with optimism whereas Philadelphia now appears to be playing out the schedule, knowing full well the head coach will be gone. Looks like a reasonable number to lay with two teams headed in opposite directions.
TAMPA -1 vs. CAROLINA (-115) — for 6 units <BEST BET OF THE WEEK>
I’m fading every game Cam Newton starts from this week forward. Having watched his decline as a starter combined with lots of finger pointing, I conclude this is a losing player and a poor leader. This wager becomes a best bet because Tampa has suddenly become one of the NFL’s hottest teams, winners of three straight. Tampa is 5-4 now, and in the playoff race. Some concerns about going on the road after a big win last week against San Diego. But Bucs had no problem pounding Minnesota and Oakland in the road during this run, and now face what may be the weakest team of the three. QB Freeman is playing mistake-free football and has the NFL’s higher passer rating the last five games….no interceptions last 155 attempts. Tampa is not the type team that beats themselves, which is a good team to back against a bad team with poor leadership. Carolina fired their GM three weeks ago. Then this week, they fired their special teams coach. This is a team to fade at the moment, especially laying a soft number. This line should be at least -3.
ST. LOUIS -3.5 vs. NY JETS (-105) — for 3 units
Here’s the other pig to bet against. A few months ago, if I would have written this, you would think I’ve be talking about the Rams. But the NY Jets are close to bottoming out and all the distraction this week of the Tebow mess won’t help a team that’s coming off a West Coast shutout (offense scored no points), and now must go on the road yet again. The Rams loss to San Francisco last week was an “all eggs in one basket” game for St. Louis (two weeks to prepare for rival). That’s a concern, and if this game was in NY, I would not touch it. But the return home probably keeps spirits up and combined with NYJ making a terrible road trip in the aftermath of a media controversy combined with an offense that is atrocious, make be willing to lay the number. Bet is smaller because the hook on the three is annoying. Would like to find a -3 or would buy onto it at -120, if an option.
CLEVELAND / DALLAS UNDER 43.5 (-110) — for 5 units
Look for a sluggish hangover game by Dallas following big road win versus division rival. Moreover, Cowboys have the Thanksgiving game coming up on Thursday, which cuts into the preparations somewhat. Very advantageous schedule rest of the way for Cowboys who get three straight at home after last four of five on road. I think that plays into a rather conservative “just win the game” approach this week. Last thing Dallas seems likely to do is open the offense more with Washington and Philadelphia on tap. It won’t take many points to beat a dismal Cleveland team that has not won a road game in 14 months (only reason I’m not taking the Browns at +7.5). Better play here is UNDER the 43.5 — which requires some serious scoring by Dallas and/or an uncharacteristic effort by Cleveland offense that has scored 34 points its last three games (two at home). Total should be 40.5. Love this total under.
ARIZONA/ATLANTA OVER 44 (-110) — for 4 units
I tend to like going over in dome games with that horrid rubber grass that speeds up the scoring (Dallas above a rare exception). Atlanta becoming a prolific scoring team with QB blossoming into one of the game’s best players (Ryan’s numbers are right up there with Brees). I note that Atlanta does not sit on leads and should be in a serious bounce back mood this week after blowing a winnable game at New Orleans last week. Perfect opponent to run up the score against, which could happen. Game pace should be dictated by Atlantic offense, which would then force Arizona into throwing more…..I see two things happening here, perhaps an extra TD or two and or turnovers. Also think the bye will help Arizona in this road spot — weak QB play, but given 14 days to prepare a few things should work. Looking for Atlanta to build a lead, then get lazy and let Arizona produce enough points to backdoor this OVER. No play at 44.5 — you must get 44 or lower.
FIRST HALF: ATLANTA -6.5 vs. ARIZONA — for 4 units
FIRST HALF: KANSAS CITY +3 vs. CINCINNATI (-115) — for 5 units
Two teams coming off strong efforts last week — Bengals smashed NYG while KC should have beaten Pittsburgh. Look for Bengals to struggle here after two weeks at home and a huge game where everything went right. We saw life from KC last week and the sidelines appear to be still with the coaching staff. These are games where Cincinnati often struggles under the Marvin Lewis regime, and for this reason I’m taking the live home dog, but in the first half only. Getting the FG with the home team playing very inconsistent opponent off biggest win of the year seems worthy of a larger bet than usual.
FIRST QUARTER: NY JETS/ST. LOUIS OVER 7 (-130) — for 6 units
This (first quarter) total is lowest of the week because bettors are convinced the NYJ offense can’t score. Perhaps they’re right. But I’ll go OVER in any dome, in any quarter, with any two teams. Period. Seriously — just give me every dome situation and I’ll lay 4 to 3 on the OVER 7 every time. There’s not much method to this madness, but as long as I’m not laying -145 or so, or have to go OVER 7.5 (huge difference), I’ll take this spot without even doing too much research. Last three games played by each team on schedule (last six trials) have all produced 10+ points in first quarter.
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS: 12 wins and 2 losses
BUFFALO-NEW ENGLAND UNDER 53 (-110) for 4 units — LOSS
CINCINNATI +4 (-110) for 3 units — WIN
TAMPA -3 (-110) for 7 units <BEST BET OF THE WEEK> — WIN
NEW ORLEANS +1 (-110) for 7 units <BEST BET OF THE WEEK> — WIN
TEASER: MINNESOTA + 8.5 with PITTSBURGH -5.5 (-110) for 6 units — LOST
SEATTLE/NY JETS OVER 38.5 (-110) for 3 units — LOSS
SEA/NYJ FIRST HALF OVER 19.5 (-110) for 3 units — WIN
SAN FRANCISCO/ST. LOUIS OVER 38.5 (-110) for 3 units — WIN
SFO/STL FIRST HALF OVER 19.5 (-110) for 3 units — WIN
FIRST QUARTER — SAN DIEGO/TAMPA OVER 9.5 (-120) for 5 units — WIN
FIRST QUARTER — DENVER/CAROLINA OVER 9.5 (-115) for 5 units — WIN
FIRST QUARTER — DETROIT/MINNESOTA OVER 9.5 (-120) for 5 units — WIN
FIRST QUARTER — NY JETS/SEATTLE OVER 7 (-125) for 6 units –WIN
FIRST QUARTER — ST. LOUIS/SAN FRANCISCO OVER 7 (-120) for 6 units — WIN