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Posted by on Jan 18, 2013 in Blog, Sports Betting | 0 comments

NFL Plays — Championship Games

Snow Game

NOLAN DALLA:  2012 POSTED NFL SEASON RECORD

93 WINS – 87 LOSSES – 6 PUSHES —– (+ 15.6 units / 1 unit = $100)

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $11,560. —– (+$1,560)

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  12-7-0

 

Comments:  Last week’s Atlanta non-cover was one of the toughest beats of the season.  One of the most difficult things to do is get back on the same team again that blew it so badly the week before.  I normally would take Atlanta here at +3.5 as the attractive home dog.  But I’ve lost all confidence in the Falcons, particularly head coach Mike Smith’s ability to manage a big game.  Accordingly, this will be a no play for me.  In the other championship game, I would take Baltimore plus the points, but the value is now gone with the line drop all the way from +9.5 to +7.5.  No play.  I have just one totals wager for the championship games.

 

BALTIMORE / NEW ENGLAND UNDER 51 (-110) — for 7 units  <BEST BET OF THE WEEK>

All four games last week went over the total.  I think that raises the number here just a bit beyond where it should be, which in my estimation is 49.  I’d still like UNDER 49, albeit for a smaller amount.  At 51 , this is a mandatory play.  New England has no trouble scoring points when they’re the clearly superior team and comfortably at home (example — Houston last week).  In fact, they seem to run up the score at times.  But versus more solid competition, I’m not sure the points will come so easily.  Baltimore has repeatedly proven its ability to play with New England in these types of games, best illustrated by last year’s championship game — which Baltimore probably should have won (missed late field goal).  I think that score is a template for what should happen again this year, which was a 23-20 outcome.  Two more things really point to the UNDER here. First and foremost, the season-ending injury to star tight end Gronkowski reduces QB Brady’s passing options, especially when facing a rush.  New England’s offensive line has been mediocre for the past three seasons, and at times been downright awful.  I expect Baltimore will enjoy some success pressuring Brady, and since his favorite receiving target is now on the bench, that should hurt production.  For the Ravens, I think we could see the old Joe Flacco this week — the quarterback who tends to be shaky in these big games.  He got massive help from a receiver corps last week that made every big catch, including a baffling last second touchdown pass that Denver gift wrapped.  I don’t see the Ravens receivers repeating that same stellar performance again. Moreover, I think this game will stay close score wise, which tends to help the UNDER.  When one team falls behind by a few touchdowns, they start taking wild chances and the scoring sometimes gets out of control.  But in closer games, the play calling is always a bit safer.  One negative — weather should not be a factor.  Slight breeze and 30 degrees at game time.  Advice is to wait and try to catch the UNDER 51.5 if possible — watch the lay price…..and if it moves to -115 or -120 OVER, then make this wager at the last minute where you might catch 51.5.  If there is no movement Sunday afternoon, then go ahead and bet the UNDER at 51.  Do try to catch this number, as its somewhat a key figure in higher-scoring games.

 

LAST WEEK’S WAGERS:  1 wins and 2 losses….minus 10.0 units

ATLANTA -2.5 vs. SEATTLE (-120) — for 8 units  <BEST BET OF THE WEEK> — LOST

BALTIMORE / DENVER UNDER 46 (-110) — for 4 units — LOST

FIRST QUARTER — GREEN BAY +.5 vs SAN FRANCISCO (-140) — for 4 units — WON

 

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