This weekend brings mixed emotions. I’m sad the regular season is over. The NFL goes from 16 games a week to 6, and next week there will be 4, and then 2, and then 1. That sucks.
Oh, and no more Red Zone.
For a serious sports fan, there’s nothing better than watching the NFL Red Zone each Sunday. No commercials. No fluffers. No annoying Buck and Aikman. No inane questions from sideline reporters. No mindless prattle from ex-jocks back in the studio.
Instead, give me 7 straight hours of Andrew Siciliano unfiltered and uninterrupted yelling at the control room guys to switch screens to the action. Great television. Seriously, I’d much rather have 14 games happening on any given Sunday than watch the playoffs. For me, the championship games and Super Bowl are anti-climatic.
Thanks, Sici, and thanks to the Red Zone on NFL Sunday Ticket for another great season.
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (Lay amount/Win amount): 6 wins — 3 losses — +$840
Kansas City / Denver UNDER 45 — Risking $330 to win $300 ….. LOST
Detroit Lions +4 vs. Green Bay — Risking $330 to win $300 ….. WON
Indianapolis / Jacksonville UNDER 44.5 — Risking $330 to win $300 ….. WON
NY Jets / Buffalo UNDER 41 — Risking $330 to win $300 ….. WON
Tennessee / Houston UNDER 43 — Risking $330 to win $300 ….. LOST
Mixed Special 10-Point Teaser (KC/TB/TN) — Risking $650 to win $500 ….. WON
Detroit Team Total OVER 9.5 First Half (-120) — Risking $240 to win $200 ….. WON
Chicago Team Total OVER 9.5 First Half (-115) — Risking $230 to win $200 ….. WON
San Francisco Team Total OVER 8.5 First Half (-150) — Risking $300 to win $200 ….. LOST
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2021 NFL WAGERING RECORD
77 Wins
72 Losses
2 Pushes
Starting Bankroll: $10,000.
Current Bankroll: $10,097.
Net Gain/Loss: +$97.
Last Week’s Results: (6-3-0) +$840.
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There’s plenty of analysis out there on these six playoff games. I won’t repeat much of that, but will attempt to identify some outliers that I think deserve extra consideration when handicapping the games.
SATURDAY
Cincinnati -5.5 vs. Las Vegas — Risking $330 to win $300
I don’t know if the Bengals are 5.5 points better than the Raiders. However, this is purely a situational bet. I think it will be very tough for Las Vegas to regenerate the level of excitement of last week’s thriller, which was the best game of the year and arguably the most exciting game in several seasons. Ideal conditions at home in the season finale at home for the Raiders is a marked difference from this week — an outdoor playoff game on the road versus a rested opponent. Toss out last week’s loss, Cincinnati rested most of its key players in Week 18, so they should be fresh. This isn’t the same bumbling Bengals team of the last 20 years. There’s a new optimism with the Bengals. And just look at who the Bengals played and tended to beat in the last several weeks of the season —- Kansas City, Baltimore, Denver, San Francisco, LA Chargers, Pittsburgh, and these same Raiders. Cincy went 5-2 in those games, all solid opposition (if we count Denver’s defense). The Bengals also dominated the Raiders in the first meeting, running wild at Las Vegas. If anything, this is a better Cincinnati team now. Easily, it’s a more confident team. Sure, let’s give the Raiders credit for a 4-game win streak, but all those games were close — 4 wins by a combined 13 points. A few scores here and there, and the Raiders might be 8-9 and out of the playoffs. Another key–the Bengals’ offense has been phenomenal in the second half of the season, highlighted by QB Burrow and his unit racking up 28 PPG across their last eight games contrasted against a Raiders’ squad that’s scored 17 pts or less in 7/10 contests (just 19 PPG). On paper, taking +5.5 may look like the right play until you really examine the numbers. But I see most intangibles favoring the Bengals, who have played more consistently down the stretch and should get their first playoff win since the last century.
LATE ADDITION: Las Vegas Team Total Over 9.5 (First Half) (-135) — Risking $405 to win $300
Adding this late play on Friday night (first-half lines were released late). Even though I see Cincy scoring points and covering, the Raiders have enough firepower to reach 1o points in the first half. It helps that the Raiders’ kicker is solid, which gives us a good shot to hit 10, a TD and FG.
New England / Buffalo UNDER 44 (-110) — Risking $550 to win $500
I have no idea what’s going on with the game total. On Tuesday, weather reports came out that Buffalo is expecting near-0 degree temps at kickoff and a 30 percent chance of snow (this is modified now, around 8 degrees for the opening kickoff. The wind chill is going to make it feel like it’s -5 degrees and there are going to be 10 mph winds throughout the night.). So, I bet the total at 43 and was astounded when the total inexplicably went up to 44 as of Tuesday evening. So, I placed even more money on the UNDER at this number. Cold weather doesn’t always mean the UNDER is a good play, and snowfall can sometimes help offenses due to slick fields. However, if we remember the game plan for the previous NWE at BUF game, a MNF matchup when the Patriots ran the hell out of the ball all night long, I think we can be confident in a similar game plan. Obviously, the Patriots will throw more passes this time around, and I don’t expect another 14-10 outcome. But it’s hard to see New England deviating from the success of their last win here. Buffalo will try to turn this into a shootout, but the cold could hurt both passing offenses, so I’ll stick with the UNDER. Keep in mind that when we bet total early, there’s a much greater chance they go down due to bad weather, than go up. So, grab the 44 if you can still find it. January totals outdoors can be tricky. Key stat: UNDERS in the first round have hit about 64 percent over the past 10 seasons.
SUNDAY
Philadelphia / Tampa Bay -8.5 (Total 46)
I have no opinion or bet on this game.
Dallas Team Total OVER 27 (-110) vs. San Francisco — Risking $550 to win $500
The Cowboys posted a franchise scoring record (yes, it was 17 games, not 16) and rolled up lots of points. They exceeded 27+ in six of eight home games this season, and now a home playoff game should bring out the best in the Dallas passing attack. I’m not so confident the Cowboys either win or cover, but so long as we catch the key number (27), it seems more likely to break than total than to fall beneath it. Dallas hit 27 or more in 11/15 games started by Dak Prescott this season. The 49ers defense could come up big, of course, and shut down Dallas, which has happened a few times (recall the Arizona game that Dallas lost). Anything is possible in the playoffs. I might have avoided this bet, but I didn’t like what I saw from San Francisco in a critically important game last week when they fell behind 0-17 early. Credit the 49ers for the comeback and the win. However, if they come into this game with similar preparation, they could get rolled. I’ll stick with the hot-handed Prescott and the Cowboys and look for a 400+ yard passing game and at least enough points to break 27.
Pittsburgh / Kansas City -12 (Total 46.5)
I have no opinion or bet on this game.
MONDAY
LA Rams -4 vs. Arizona (-110) — Risking $330 to win $300
This is a tale of 2 very different teams on the back half of the season. The Cardinals started out hot in the first eight weeks, but stumbled down the stretch, winning just 3/8 games and looking really, really bad, at times. Arizona began making dumb mistakes, committing way too many penalties, and simply did not resemble the same team that looked so explosive back in September. Bad coaching? Poor offensive line play (absolutely). Perhaps opponents have figured out the Cardinals now, and they’re a softer opponent. Who knows? Meanwhile, the Rams are never a confident pick and I have some serious worries about QB Stafford in any big game. He’s well known to self-destruct under pressure. Nonetheless, the LA Rams should win and cover here according to what we’ve seen from these teams from December onward. This line might make sense in midseason but given the way the Cardinals have played recently (losing by 8 points to the Seahawks at home last week?) is a huge red flag. The Cards defense also looks vulnerable, giving up 22+ in six straight games, and with the Rams’ dangerous passing attack, there’s the possibility of a wipeout here. I won’t lay more than -4 but at this number, the Rams are worth a wager.
FINAL SUMMARY OF THIS WEEK’S BETS (Lay amount/Win amount):
Cincinnati -5.5 vs. Las Vegas — Risking $330 to win $300
LATE ADDITION: Las Vegas Team Total Over 9.5 (First Half) (-135) — Risking $405 to win $300
New England / Buffalo UNDER 44 (-110) — Risking $550 to win $500
Dallas Team Total OVER 27 (-110) vs. San Francisco — Risking $550 to win $500
LA Rams -4 vs. Arizona (-110) — Risking $330 to win $300
NOTE: THIS IS THE FINAL REPORT FOR WEEK 19.