My NFL Picks: Week 4
NOLAN DALLA: 2013 NFL SEASON RECORD
17 WINS — 18 LOSSES — 3 PUSHES
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $7,035.
NET GAIN/LOSS: minus $2,965.
BEST BETS: 0–3–1
It was yet another brutal week. My posted picks went 4-6-1. Once again, the early plays performed horribly. But the late plays did very well.
Since some people out there might be fading my early plays (which isn’t a bad idea), I’ll go ahead and keep posting them for your amusement. However, I’ve focused a lot more on the late plays, which are mostly quarters, halves, and props. Tread cautiously, my friends.
I’ve made 16 plays, so far. There are three BEST BETS, which is unusually high since I couldn’t decide which of these I liked best. Here are my preferred picks for NFL Week 4:
LAST MINUTE ADDITION:
TEAM TOTAL: Baltimore OVER 24 — $330 to win $300 Buffalo has serious injuries problems in its secondary. Line on Ravens has moved all the way up from 3 to 4, which is major. Appears the best play here is to expect points from Baltimore, which should do a lot of passing.
LATE ADDED PLAYS:
FIRST QUARTER — Chicago +.5 (-140) $420 to win $300 Note: Typo in early report, this should be CHICAGO
FIRST QUARTER — Chicago/Detroit OVER 9.5 (-110) $330 to win $300
FIRST QUARTER — NY Giants +.5 (-125) $375 to win $300
FIRST QUARTER — Miami/New Orleans OVER 7.5 (-120) $480 to win $400
FIRST QUARTER — New England/Atlanta OVER 9.5 (-115) <<<BEST BET>>> $575 to win $500
FIRST HALF — Chicago/Detroit OVER 23.5 (-120) <<<BEST BET>>> $550 to win $500
PROP — MOST PASSING YARDS: Eli Manning (-34 yards) vs Alex Smith $330 to win $300
PROP — NY Giants TEAM TOTAL OVER 20 POINTS (-115) $440 to win $400
EARLY PLAYS:
6-POINT TEASER — Minnesota +8.5 / Arizona +7.5 — $550 to win $500
Regarding Minnesota, seems like a solid play to take as many points as possible in a coin-toss situation — so I’ll go with the Wong Teaser. Add the uncertainty of the game being played in the UK, and this makes the teaser all the more powerful since there’s no way to tell who will react to travel more favorably. Also appears to be good strategy to fade the Steelers offense, which has looked dreadful in all three games. Vikings could be 2-1 with a break or two (two last second losses)…..I’ll also tease Arizona on the road getting more than a TD. Tampa has announced a QB change which may be a good idea, but that’s generally a favorable situation to fade, especially if getting points.
6-POINT TEASER — Minnesota +8.5 / Houston +8 — <<<BEST BET>>> $770 to win $700
GAME — Houston +2 — $440 to win $400
Big play on Houston both as a game side and teaser for several reasons — 1. rebound situation for Texans off a miserable road loss…2. bet against Seahawks as a road favorite since they don’t seem to play as well away…..3. lots of offensive line problems for Seattle…..4. getting points
GAME — Cleveland +3.5 — $330 to win $300
I got this at the opener at +5, but still recommend a play at anything a FG or higher. Browns defense has played well and with Hoyer looking good in his debut, there’s renewed optimism in Cleveland. Rivalry game with Cincinnati naturally makes one lean to taking points. I’d make this a much larger play at +4.5 or higher but now at +3.5 must downgrade a bit to smaller wager.
GAME — Jacksonville +9.5 — $440 to win $400
Hold your nose and close your eyes. You might be able to wait until game time and get +10, but even at +9 this is still worth a wager. Contrarian play mandated by the thought that no NFL team is so bad it will lose by double digits every game. This could finally be the Jaguars week, especially with Indy coming off huge road win on west coast I like to fade road team playing their second in a row as visitor and given what seems like little motive to be up for this game, I’m hoping this is a closer contest than the line suggests. First real favorable situation for Jax, given they were badly outclassed by two 3-0 teams and also had to face Raiders in a coast-to-coast home opener. Too many points to pass up.
GAME — Atlanta -2 — $440 to win $400
Falcons are the more desperate team here and playing at home against banged up Patriots in its first real test, I’ll lay less than a FG with some confidence.
GAME TOTAL — Philadelphia/Denver UNDER 58.5 — $440 to win $400
I really don’t care who the teams are, or what the situation, I’ll bet UNDER this number in any NFL game, especially when outdoors. Just in case anyone hasn’t noticed yet, Eagles’ offense might have taken a step back since opener. Hoping for a sloppy game from at least one of these teams.
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
FIRST HALF TOTAL Washington/Detroit over 24 (-120) $240 to win 200 — WON
FIRST QUARTER St Louis plus half point (-135) $270 to win 200 — LOST
FIRST QUARTER New Orleans/Arizona over 9.5 $330 to win 300 — WON
FIRST QUARTER Indianapolis +3 (-125) $375 to win 300 — WON
6-POINT TEASER: Atlanta +8 / NY Giants +7.5 — $440 to win $400 — LOST
6-POINT TEASER: Minnesota-1.5 / New Orleans -1 — $550 to win $500 <<<BEST BET>>> — LOST
TEAM TOTAL: Atlanta OVER 21 for GAME — $220 to win $200 –WON
TEAM TOTAL: San Diego OVER 10 for FIRST HALF — $440 to win $400 <<<BEST BET>>> — PUSH
FIRST HALF TOTAL: San Diego/Tennessee OVER 21 — $330 to win $300 — LOST
GAME TOTAL UNDER 41: Cleveland vs. Minnesota — $330 to win $300 — LOST
GAME TOTAL UNDER 40.5: Jacksonville vs. Seattle — $220 to win $200 — LOST
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PENDING NFL FUTURES WAGERS
DALLAS COWBOYS UNDER 8.5 WINS (-125) —– Wagering $750 to win $600
NEW YORK GIANTS OVER 9 WINS (-105) —– Wagering $1,050 to win $1,000
GREEN BAY PACKERS UNDER 10.5 WINS (-115) —– Wagering $575 to win $500
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS UNDER 7.5 WINS (+105) *BEST BET* —– Wagering $1,500 to win $1,575
NEW ORLEANS OVER 9 WINS (-165) —– Wagering $1,650 to win $1,000
ST. LOUIS RAMS OVER 7.5 WINS (-110) —– Wagering $440 to win $400
BALTIMORE RAVENS OVER 8.5 WINS (-110) —– Wagering $1,100 to win $1,000
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS OVER 8.5 WINS (-110) —– Wagering $880 to win $800
OAKLAND RAIDERS UNDER 5.5 (-180) — Wagering $1,800 to win $1,000
……………..
NOLAN DALLA: 2012 FINAL NFL SEASON RECORD
98 WINS – 87 LOSSES – 6 PUSHES —– (+ 34.6 units / 1 unit = $100)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
ENDING BANKROLL: $13,460.
NET GAIN: +$3,460
BEST BETS OF THE WEEK: 14-7-0
Do you really think you’re a good fade? Do you really think your early bets are expected to be < 50% going forward? Do you have a reason to believe your handicapping in those games is worse than in the late games? If you can't name the reason, why would change your strategy instead of assuming it's random variation?
Nolan, keep up the good work. Picking the opposite of your selections has been quite rewarding.