My New NFL Betting System: “Mini-Martingaling Your Way Out of the Red and Into the Black”
Before launching into a thorough analysis of my expert NFL pick for Sunday, first here’s a short update on the disaster of what’s happened during the last few weeks.
Recall that two weeks ago, I employed the services of an “outside consultant.” After getting my brains beat out while tinkering on a total nervous breakdown by doing things the conventional way, I decided to bring in a street pigeon who was entrusted with making my weekly selection. The pigeon, randomly chosen from the neighborhood flock, selected the Indianapolis Colts +6 in a MNF game against the Carolina Panthers. The pigeon’s play looked like a loser for 55 minutes, until the closing stages of the game when the Colts stormed back and tied the score late, sent the game into overtime, and ended up getting the cover. The pigeon won!
Suspecting I was onto something big, last week I asked the pigeon to make another selection. This time, the pigeon picked the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home +2.5 against the New York Giants. That ended up being a terrible pick, since Tampa Bay lost the game badly by double digits.
Upon further review sometime afterward, I made a startling discovery. Come to find out, the pigeon who made the Tampa Bay selection was an imposter! I went back and examined the short video of both picks and found out the markings on these two birds are different. The first pigeon had one white wing. The second pigeon (the fraud) had two white wings. I don’t think birds change the colors of their feathers in just 7 days. Hence, the pigeon who flew into the back yard and ate the seeds on my NFL selection board was not my golden goose from the previous week. The imposter ended up costing me $1,100.
So this week, I ended up scouting my back yard for the “real” pigeon, but to no avail. She hasn’t shown up yet. More like disappeared. Perhaps she’s still pissed from not getting her cut on the Indianapolis win (I had a fresh bag of seeds for the celebration). Anyway, no pigeon pick today since my feathered moneymaker decided to either take the week or, or is angry at me and boycotting.
So now, all alone in the big bad world of NFL handicapping, what should I do?
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I’ll update the bankroll situation and record later on. But last check, I have about $6,500 left to fire with. Desperate times call for desperate measures. Here we go.
The “Martingale Betting System” is a sure way to the poor house a sure-fire method of wagering where the goal is to try and win one wager in a series, which absolutely guarantees a profit. Let’s say you bet $1,000 in a game this week, and it loses. You bet $2,000 the next week which would not only cover the loss from the previous game, but also locks up a profit. If that loses, you double it again to $4,000, and so on. If you go on an extended cold streak, eventually you run out of money or the bet amount is so high no one will take it. But we know that’s not going to happen. Like I said — these are desperate times.
Martingale-style betting is actually an old roulette system. But I don’t recall it ever being brought into action for NFL picking. Not until now. Consider this another one of my clever bag of tricks.
This week (and possibly next), I’m launching my own cleverly-crafted Mini-Martingale System which means this will be a two-bet sequence. I’ll be wagering $2,000 on one pick this week. If that somehow loses (no way that will happen), then I’ll fire a $4,000 bet (exact figures as to what’s left in the account are still pending) the following week. Got it? Until I scrap up the wall of this deep depression and crawl out of the hole and get back on the plus side of the $10,000 starting bankroll, we are riding the Martingale System to victory!
Which now brings me to the actual method of making the pick that I’ll be using for this week.
Hold on. Buckle your seat belt.
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Since most of my pro football analysis is spot dead on, but the players typically fail to cooperate by playing poorly, committing sick turnovers and costly penalties that end up shafting me in public, I’m doing a reverse. Fuck it.
Detroit Lions (1-7) at Green Bay Packers (6-2)
Game Line: Green Bay -10.5
This game appears to be a gross mismatch. Green Bay is far superior against the division rival Lions who appear to have given up the season and may fire head coach Jim Caldwell any week now. Combine the obvious disparity in talent at virtually every skill position with a highly-motivated home team, and this game should be an easy blowout by two touchdowns or more. Laying the -10.5 never looked so cheap or so easy. No chance Green Bay comes into the game flat, especially after two straight road losses where the tame struggled badly, especially on offence. Now, the Packers get the perfect punching bag, a sad sack shitty team with no leadership, a horrid defense, a changing surfaces situation, and an indoor team going outdoors. Detroit hasn’t seem to have won in Green Bay since Ronald Reagan was president (actually it was 1991). This game has total mismatch written all over it. Easy winner. Take it to the bank. This week’s play is……..
DETROIT LIONS +10.5 — RISKING $2,200 TO WIN $2,000 *
*[not a typo, not a misprint]