With noted sports handicapper Teddy Sevransky, a.k.a. “Teddy Covers”
Here are a few highlights from those who were on the various panels at this year’s NFL wagering seminar.
Okay, it’s not called the Las Vegas Hilton anymore.
It’s called something else.
I forgot what it is now.
Anyway, the casino that used to be known as the Las Vegas Hilton (and long before that, “The International”), hosts a football handicapping seminar every year. This annual event used to take place at the Red Rock Casino and was held over a two-day period. Now, it’s been trimmed down to a single night, which lasts about four hours. One can’t complain, since the presentation is free. Much of the seminar is pretty good. I figure, if I learn one thing or get a tip on a team or a game, it’s probably worth my time.
Unfortunately, the sports gambling industry is a murky business, filled with liars and con men. Its seedy image is a major strike against everyone who engages in sports gambling, making all efforts almost impossible to legalize what would be an enormously popular and successful pastime.
Some of my best friends who are professional handicappers attend this event each year. From Steve Fezzik, the only two-time Hilton Sports Handicapping Contest two-time winner (what the WSOP is to poker, the Hilton Contest is to football handicapping) was there. So was Ted Sevranky, also known as “Teddy Covers.” He has a popular radio show for a number of years here in Las Vegas and is working on something really big coming soon.
Dave Tuley, my old pal from the Daily Racing Form and now with ESPN, was present. He served on one of the NFL panels, along with Fezzik. Mark Lawrence, Brian Leonard, and a few others that are familiar to the Las Vegas sports betting community also gave their advice.
I attended with a few friends, who bear noting. Longtime pal Nick Christensen, one of the best technical handicappers I know, came with me. So did Joe Sartori, who I know through working with him at Poker Night in America. Then, I also sat with Larry Greenfield, from Los Angeles. Despite being a conservative (he was the head of the Reagan Foundation), I see lots of common ground with Larry — namely that we both love to bet football.
Here are a few highlights from those who were on the various panels. I’ll limit these few points to the NFL:
— The class of the AFC is still Denver, followed by New England. Then, there’s a pretty steep drop-off.
— New England gets unanimous support to easily win a soft AFC East.
— Lots of love for Buffalo, which could be a breakout team. Most handicappers like this team to exceed 6.5 wins.
— There’s consensus that the AFC South is by far the worst division in the NFL. No one seems to respect Indianapolis, despite back-to-back 11-win seasons. It won’t surprise many if Tennessee, Houston, or even Jacksonville makes a huge stride forward this season, and perhaps even wins the division as a Cinderella team.
— More on Jacksonville…I’m already down for a big bet at OVER 4.5 wins this season. Too easy a schedule for a team getting no respect to scrape by and pick up 5-6 wins. A .500 record is also possible in that lousy division.
— Mixed expectations on Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. Some very solid support for Baltimore, which looks to be a rebounding team. If you like the Ravens to bounce back after a disastrous 2013, then they might be a great value at 20-1 to win Super Bowl. I don’t like betting Super Bowl futures (vig too high), but I agree with this as probably the best value on the board.
— Cleveland is a disaster and will not do well this season. Look for Manziel to start in Week 6, after the bye with the Browns are probably 0-4 or 1-3.
— It doesn’t take a genius to pick Denver in the AFC West. This team is still loaded, and probably on a mission after last year’s Super Bowl embarrassment.
— Surprisingly, no one is convinced San Diego is a contender this season. I thought the Chargers were clearly a team headed in the right direction, following the malaise of the Norv Turner era. But I must be alone on this. Not one panelist said much positive about San Diego.
— Oakland continues to languish as the NFL’s worst team. Even with the 5-win total projection, no one likes the OVER.
— Kansas City is most likely doomed for a huge falloff from a surprise season last year. Just about everyone on the panel likes this team to go UNDER 8.5 wins this season.
— In the NFC, it’s Seattle and New Orleans getting most of the support. San Francisco isn’t as highly regarded but certainly remains a contender.
— Mixed preview on Philadelphia. The biggest note from the seminar was realizing that the Eagles’ big run last season occurred with a patsy schedule. But they lost just about every game that really matters, including a home loss in the playoffs. Not as highly regarded as I expected.
— Very strong support for Washington to go exceed 7.5 wins this season. That number seems a little high (I’d line this at 7), so no wager for me.
— I like this NY Giants to return to a winning season. Too much talent and well-coached team that never seems to get much respect. But no one on the panel agreed.
— Universal disdain for Dallas, which everyone projects to go UNDER 8 wins. On of the worst defenses in team history, that just lost two starters. If this team wins 6 games, that’s an achievement. One panelist said he thinks Dallas might be the NFC’s worst team. Romo’s recurring back problems do not help its prospects.
— Consensus opinion is that Green Bay will get back to 12 or 13 wins, followed in the division by Chicago. Not much respect for Detroit or Minnesota. I’m betting large on OVER 6 wins this season for the Vikings.
— New Orleans will win the NFC South easily. Carolina will decline and may not win half their games. Atlanta and Tampa will improve but are not good enough to challenge a loaded Saints team.
— Easy to pick Seattle in the NFC West, but don’t discount Arizona. This division is stacked with talent. Even the Rams who finished 7-9 last season might be a .500 team. Look for three playoff teams out of this division.