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Posted by on Feb 3, 2013 in Blog, Las Vegas, Sports Betting | 1 comment

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of the NFL Season

Las Vegas Hilton Race and Sportsbook

 

NOLAN DALLA:  2012 FINAL NFL SEASON RECORD

98 WINS – 87 LOSSES – 6 PUSHES —– (+ 34.6 units / 1 unit = $100)

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

ENDING BANKROLL:  $13,460. —– (+$3,460)

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  14-7-0

 

Here’s a final summation of this past NFL season:

 

NEGATIVES:

(1)  I paid an astronomical amount of vig over the course of the NFL regular season and playoffs.  In fact, the vig (or tax to the bookmaker) amounted to a staggering 52.2 units — or $5,220.  As you can see, this cut substantially into the season’s profits.

(2)  I suffered a brutal five-week run between Weeks 11-16 when I plunged from a high of +76 units for the season (+$7,600) all the way into the red (-$1,200) .  Fortunately, I bounced back with a very strong close.  However, I need to examine more closely what went wrong during those five losing weeks.

(3)  Losses piled up on SIDES and FIRST-QUARTER betting.  In fact, I lost money in these categories.  I’ve struggled picking sides since the 2001 season (record wise).  However, I continue to make selections since more bettors/readers are interested in this category more than others.  Starting next season, I might abandon SIDES betting altogether.

(4)  Critics have advised that I play far too many games.  This is undoubtedly true as I made 191 wagers this season (not counting halftimes, which were not posted here — so add at least another 60 or so wagers).  However, I suspect if someone is reading this page each week, they prefer more information and picks rather than less.  So, I tend to render an opinion whenever I see line value.

(5)  My contrarian nature sometimes gets me in trouble.  I pick far more dogs than favorites.  I often bet on bad teams.  I must learn that the public is sometimes right about a game and go with it.

(6)  I did all of my own handicapping this year.  I never looked at a single other source when it came to picking games.  That said, I would like to branch out and gain insight from other sources that I can consistently trust.  I’m costing myself valuable information and profits by not using the tools and contacts I have in this business.

 

POSITIVES:

(1)  I posted another winning season — both record-wise and in terms of generating profit.  That’s the most important thing.  This is particularly satisfying having made a whopping 191 selections.  The best handicappers hit perhaps 55 percent over the long haul, so my numbers are somewhat consistent with this expectation.  Dating back to 1998, when I first began posting picks at various websites (AOL SPORTS, SPORTS FAN RADIO, MADJACK SPORTS, etc.), I’ve now had 11 winning football seasons and 4 losing seasons.  Given how difficult handicapping has become in recent years, I’m very pleased with this record.

(2)  My “Best Bets” performed very well — going 14-7 (66 percent wins).  This amounted to an average of one play per week.  Very strong.

(3)  TOTALS and FIRST HALF betting were my best categories.  I need to track it, but I’m not sure I’ve had a losing season in TOTALS betting.  I should probably concentrate on this more.

(4)  I performed very well in weighing my selections.  In fact, this is the single most important thing which enabled me to turn an overall profit  In other words, the losses tended to be on smaller wagers and the wins tended to be on bigger wagers.  I’m pleased with my weighing system and will try and refine it even more in the future.

(5)  While betting that NFL is tougher than ever and I still have a lot to learn, I’m convinced a savvy disciplined bettor can earn a profit with solid bankroll management.

(6)  I did not run the numbers this year on my HALFTIME ANGLES.  I suspect these are no longer advantage plays because linesmakers have made adjustments in there second half lines.  If anyone tracked them (they’ve become so widely known now, they’ve lost all value), please let me know.

ARTICLE ON HALFTIME BETTING ANGLES HERE

 

That wraps up the season.  Next post on this topic coming in August 2013.

Thanks for reading and for all the feedback this past season.

 

LAST WEEK’S WAGERS:  4 wins and 0 losses for +12 units

Baltimore +4 vs. San Francisco (-110) — for 2 units — WIN

First Quarter:  Baltimore plus .5 (-130) — for 4 units  <BEST BET OF THE WEEK> — WIN

Proposition:  San Francisco Scores More Points in the SECOND HALF/OT lined at -.5 (-110) — for 3 units — WIN

Proposition:  Will Kaepernick Throw an Interception? YES (-130) — for 3 units — WIN

 

1 Comment

  1. NOLAN REPLIES: The Super Bowl is just one game. Too many bettors pattern bets based on the importance of the contest, which is absurd. I’ve bet $5,000 on obscure college basketball games, and made $100 bets on some Super Bowls. The lines are tight on a game of this magnitude, which means the props are where the money is at. I was pleased to win, but have no regrets about the size of may wager. By the way, the “winning season” factor had no influence on me. If this had been a 15-game weekend, I would have bet 50 units or so. I just didn’t like the game that much and given all four my bets were correlated, that was enough exposure for me.

    That said, I appreciate your feedback all season. It was interesting to read your plays and thoughts, as well.

    — ND

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  1. NFL Season Win Totals (NFC) | Nolan Dalla - […] A look back:  SEE “THE GOOD, THE BAD, AND THE UGLY OF THE (2012) NFL SEASON” […]

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