If you don’t know who Matt Lessinger is by now, then plug his name into the SEARCH feature here at this site and educate yourself.
He’s a great analyst and for this reason I bet most of his recommendations blind.
Lessinger posted some excellent analysis on the boxing match tomorrow night, taking place at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, between Shawn Porter and Adrien Broner. What follows are five emails written by Lessinger (and posted with his permission).
This discussion is interesting for two reasons: First, for those who bet on sports, it’s always interesting get good information. Second, for those who wonder what’s involved in the rituals of a winning sports bettor, this exchange provides some unique insight.
I bet Shawn Porter back on June 10th, based on the (then) line of PORTER -145. I was shocked to see the line move down, where it’s now PORTER -136. I bet it again at that price, but then contacted Lessinger to hear his thoughts on why the line had moved (in the wrong direction, assuming this is the correct side). The final three e-mails discuss the recent line movement.
I’m on Shawn Porter to win the bout. From what follows, you can decide for yourselves if you agree:
There were flags. There were speeches. There were songs.
There were men in uniform. There were women in uniform. There were even children in uniform.
A few hundred people attended today’s Memorial Day ceremony, a solemn occasion that’s become annual tradition here in our neighborhood in The Lakes section of Las Vegas.
Most moving of all were the veterans who proudly stood before us and made speeches in which they remembered their fallen comrades — in Korea, in Vietnam, in the Middle East. Indeed, today was (and is) a time to reflect upon and commemorate the ultimate sacrifices of all those whose voices have become faint echoes and distant memories, now entombed with the earth. We need not have known the fallen to honor them.
Sincere thanks to The Lakes community association, organizers, attendees, musicians, Congressman Joe Heck (who attended and gave a moving speech) — and most of all, the veterans.
Tonight’s absurdly overhyped championship fight doesn’t interest me in the last, except as an opportunity to make money, and I expect to make a few easy dollars sitting around and doing nothing, a skill I’ve pretty much mastered at this stage of my life.
Normally, big spectacles like this don’t offer much in the way of betting value for serious gamblers. Why not?
Well first off, there’s no such thing as “inside information” or finding a pick that’s “under the radar,” as one might uncover in a far more obscure sporting contests. Second, the gargantuan sums of money bet on this fight worldwide have pretty much hammered the numbers into place, exactly where they should be. Face it, most of us lack any really useful information that the rest of the world doesn’t already have, so there’s really no such thing as “wise guy” action. Third, just about everything these two fighters do is covered to the max by the media. We know what they eat for breakfast, lunch, and dinner. If one of the boxers sneezes, it’s ticker-streamed across ESPN. Fourth, the house take on many props is ridiculous, and frankly prohibitive. Some sportsbooks are holding a whopping 25-35 percent on various props, making them terrible bets no matter what we think will happen. Finally, given boxing’s horrid reputation for corruption, some baffling scoring decisions in past fights, and the gargantuan profits going into lots of pockets, there’s always the chance a win-by-decision could be influenced which will intentionally rig a mandatory re-match, where all the greedy paws of this filthy “sport” can double dip into the golden well for more mega-millions.
But, I’m going off on a tangent. Back to how we can maximize our own greediness and squeeze out a profit.
Well, talent for one thing. Ms. Carey can sing. Ms. Spears can’t. Simple as that.
Comparing the two pop divas might seem pointless. But with Ms. Carey’s new residency underway at Caesars Palace this week, the adriot singer-artist with a remarkable 18 number one hits spread out over the course of her illustrious 25-year career does draw inevitable comparisons to the empty-headed bimbo lip-synching her entire show across the street over at a Caesars’ sister property Planet Hollywood, while living inside a cocoon most of time and charging her nitwit “fans” $2,500 a pop for an up-close-and-personal meet-and-greet that’s been timed as short as 3 seconds. Oh, and no autographs or photos are allowed when the pop princess is present in the room. No folks, I’m not making this up. [READ MORE HERE]
I’ve been accused of being a hater, and there’s some valitity to the charge. Indeed, I do hate mediocrity being celebrated and obscenely rewarded in our society. Yes, I do hate it that so many marvelous singers and talented songwriters can’t get into the music business let alone make a decent living, while blundering Britney makes a whopping $475,000 per show [SOURCE HERE] for basically doing this every night:
The sickening stench of a polluted political waterfall is pouring into the abyss.
Just about everyone who’s anyone in Nevada connected in any way to politics or media is spouting praise for Harry Reid, the unbearable United States senator who somehow managed to transmute himself into the great imposter who’s now impersonating the face of American liberalism. Newspaper op-eds, mayors, governors, congressmen, his fellow senators — and most sickening of all, media — continue to toss bogus confetti, applauding his so-called “leadership” while very likely quietly whispering to themselves, thank goodness that loathsome son-of-a-bitch is finally leaving office.
In case you missed the news, Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) announced last Friday that he won’t seek re-election, come 2016. He’s suffered several setbacks recently, both political and personal.