Anyone Betting Saturday Night’s Porter-Broner Fight (Must Read)
If you don’t know who Matt Lessinger is by now, then plug his name into the SEARCH feature here at this site and educate yourself.
He’s a great analyst and for this reason I bet most of his recommendations blind.
Lessinger posted some excellent analysis on the boxing match tomorrow night, taking place at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, between Shawn Porter and Adrien Broner. What follows are five emails written by Lessinger (and posted with his permission).
This discussion is interesting for two reasons: First, for those who bet on sports, it’s always interesting get good information. Second, for those who wonder what’s involved in the rituals of a winning sports bettor, this exchange provides some unique insight.
I bet Shawn Porter back on June 10th, based on the (then) line of PORTER -145. I was shocked to see the line move down, where it’s now PORTER -136. I bet it again at that price, but then contacted Lessinger to hear his thoughts on why the line had moved (in the wrong direction, assuming this is the correct side). The final three e-mails discuss the recent line movement.
I’m on Shawn Porter to win the bout. From what follows, you can decide for yourselves if you agree:
Date: Wed, 10 Jun 2015
Most of the boxing matches on the horizon are pretty one-sided. One of the closer matchups is a week from Saturday, Adrien Broner vs. Shawn Porter, on June 20th.
I have already bet Shawn Porter at -140, and would advise betting him at any line -140 or lower.
This fight is at 145 pounds. Broner was a world champion at 130, 135, and 140. Since his move up to 145 and 147, his power has been non-existent. He hasn’t scored a KO in two years, when he was fighting at 135. He has only one loss on his record, but at least two of his decision wins were controversial, and he could easily have three losses on his record. At 147 he won a narrow split decision against Paulie Malignaggi when he was a 15-1 favorite and expected to win easily, which to me indicates that he is not fighting at his ideal weight. His only official loss came to Marcos Maidana (also at 147), and Porter’s style is almost exactly the same as Maidana’s: throw a high volume of power punches and smother your opponent so he becomes ineffective.
Porter’s only loss was a majority decision loss to Kell Brook, who might be the best 147-pound fighter in the world today (yes, better than Mayweather and Pacquiao), so there is no shame at all in that loss, especially considering that one of the judges scored it a draw. By comparison to Broner, when Porter fought Malignaggi at 147, he scored a vicious 4th round knockout. Porter is the naturally bigger and stronger man, and I think he will walk through a lot of Broner’s punches and assert himself enough to win the fight.
In general, Porter does a better job of passing the eye test. Watching him from fight to fight, he seems to be improving, whereas Broner already looks like his best days are behind him even though he is only 25 years old. He would have to have the best fight of his career in order to win, and it doesn’t seem likely to happen. He seems more interested in promoting himself and partying than training seriously.
It breaks down like this: Broner has virtually no chance of knocking out Porter, whereas Porter certainly has a chance of knocking out Broner. However, when it comes to the scorecards, I am a little worried about a bum decision. Broner is the flashier fighter, even though his punches often lack power. He has already won two or three fights by decision that a lot of ringside observers felt he lost. If that happens again, then I guess we’re out of luck. Broner is the better fight promoter, the better hype man, and that might factor into him getting some favorable judging. But it’s hard to factor that into the handicapping. Let’s just hope for the knockout to end all doubt, and if not, then some fair and balanced judging.
Date: Wed, 17 Jun 2015
Regarding my email from last week talking about Porter vs. Broner, I was a little taken aback when I put in a pretty big bet on Porter only to then see the line move from -140 to -130. That’s never a good sign. I am hoping it is only because Broner has more name recognition, and not because of some information that I was unaware of. If I could do it again I would make a smaller bet (and take the -130 instead of -140!) but we’ll see what happens as the fight gets closer.
Date: Fri, 19 Jun 2015
Here is a further follow-up regarding Porter vs. Broner:
Fast forward to today. Nolan, you asked me if we should be worried about the line movement towards Broner, and I said it definitely does not bode well. Here is the update. They haven’t officially weighed in yet, but word is that Broner (the one who asked for the 144 lb catchweight) is going to come in substantially overweight. He is going to pay whatever money he needs to pay to Porter as a penalty (at least six figures) and basically buy a weight advantage. On the other hand, Porter has trained seriously and looks fit, and he should make weight. It is kind of ironic, because I told you my concern was that Porter might not comfortably make weight, and now it is Broner who looks surprisingly heavy.
This could be interpreted in several ways. I read it to mean that Broner knew he could not beat Porter in a fair fight, so he is buying a weight advantage to try to tilt the scales in his favor. He signed a lucrative contract, so the money doesn’t mean as much to him as his record. If he continues to win, he continues to make big bucks and can continue to afford to pay fines. This is not the first time he has done this. He bought a weight advantage against a lightly-regarded opponent and basically demolished him in five rounds.
On the one hand, the added weight for Broner will diminish the effect of Porter’s power. On the other hand, if Broner is so out of shape as to be ineffective, then it won’t matter, Porter will simply outclass him. Rumor has it that Broner did not train as seriously as he should have for this fight, while Porter took it extremely seriously. So the bottom line is that I’m still OK with having the action I have on Porter, but I wouldn’t load up on it any further. The weight issue adds too much unpredictability to the outcome.
Date: Fri, 19 Jun 2015
One more thing to note and then I’ll shut up.
There is a clause in their contract for a secondary weigh in Saturday morning. The idea is that they have to be 144 lbs today, and then be no more than 154 pounds tomorrow morning. This was a clause put in by Broner. But now rumor is that Broner is going to skip the secondary weigh in (and thus avoid the penalties that come with it) and basically leave it to Porter to see if Porter wants to cancel the fight (and the biggest payday of his career so far) or to go through with it even though he knows Broner will have a substantial weight advantage. Obviously, given how hard Porter has trained, he will probably not cancel the fight and Broner knows this. So Broner will pay the fines tonight, be a no-show tomorrow morning, and probably come into the fight in the high 160s. Meanwhile Porter will make weight today, make weight in the morning, and maybe reach 160 by fight time. The potential weight difference can certainly explain the line movement towards Broner.
BUT this shows a complete lack of discipline on Broner’s part. So the hope will remain that he is simply unprepared for such a strong opponent
Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2015
Check that: The Saturday secondary weigh-in has been cancelled altogether. But Broner will still be the bigger man at fight time.
My final thoughts:
MY WAGER IS ON SHAWN PORTER, GETTING TWO BAD NUMBERS -145 and -136. It’s now in the -130-135 range.