My Secret to Making Money Betting the NFL (Revealed!)
Allow me to brag a little.
Heading into NFL Week 16, I’ve probably got the worst handicapping record in the whole country. I’m hitting 38 percent winners. Thirty-eight percent! I challenge anyone to try and hit a percentage that low on straight bets — I promise, you couldn’t do that if you tried! Yet incredibly, I’m ahead for the season — profiting by about 11 percent on a total of 133 side wagers (I’ve also paid about $6,500 in vig). I’m making money. How are you cutting it? Probably in the hole again. Poor things. I’ll try and help.
Had you made conventional investments (boring ass shit like stocks, bonds, real estate, gold, savings interest, soybeans, and so forth), you would not have made as much return as simply following by plays and betting them blindly. That’s right. I’m outperforming all the financial gurus (that’s potentially THREE of FOUR winning seasons, by the way). So toss your Wall Street Journal and copy of Fortune into the garbage where they belong. I got you covered, right here. Given I’ve been picking NFL games for about four months, if you were to add up the annualized return on investment amount, actually we’re looking at about 30 percent. Trumpet that figure to your overpaid broker and watch him squirm like a worm. Oh, and tell him another thing for me. That he’s a fucking crook. I don’t charge a percentage. Everything I give out is free. Your broker should be shining my shoes. The Las Vegas touts charging for picks should be offering me favors.
So, what’s my secret?
Simple. Money management.
I’m the undisputed king of money management. No one in the universe hits a lame 38 percent and is still ahead for the year. No one! That’s raw talent. That’s balls of glass. That’s me performing my magic while the rest of you are stuck and need a bail out. I’ll try and help.
This week I’m going to return to the old tried and true method of handicapping that I’ve used for years. Listen up, you might learn something. I can’t think of a better week to go contrarian than now, especially coming off a huge week for the favorites when most of the popular teams covered. This gives us a great opportunity to pick up extra value on several games. Watch the public bet on the all teams in playoff contention. Dumb asses. I’ll take most of the dog shit teams, getting generous points and watch them eating hot dogs and bitching about the price of a draft beer.
Let’s fire big. Serious money is going into action this week. Grab you wallet and your balls and stick with me. I assure you, this is the correct betting strategy, especially after a bloodbath then the sportsbooks lost a fortune. This week is the contrarians wet dream come true. Here are my plays, with just about every dollar in action. I don’t rest on my success. I fire and make the books sweat. Fire!
NY GIANTS +7 vs. MINNESOTA — RISKING $1,100 to WIN $1,000…..Giants out of the playoffs with last night’s Washington win, WR Beckham has been a distraction all week, best WR now suspended, Vikings very much in playoff hunt and could still win the division crown. Public will absolutely hammer the Vikings. So, I’ll take the visiting dog. Giants for some reason have played better when pressure of off and they’re least expected to perform well. Minnesota also hasn’t looked so solid at home. Idiots on Vikings. Smart money on the dog out of contention.
ATLANTA +7 vs. CAROLINA — RISKING $1,100 to WIN $1,000…..Falcons have played like the NFL’s worst team the last few months, but this game is their Super Bowl. Similar spot for Panthers three weeks ago resulted in an overtime game at New Orleans. After getting nearly wiped out for the season, I pledged that I’d never bet the Falcons based on the pathetic effort I’ve seen from this team. But after such humiliation and an embarrassing loss earlier at Carolina, I’m expecting the visitors might take this one for granted and come in less than fully prepared. Moreover, I always like taking divisional home dogs. This is the ultimate contrarian play, betting against a perfect 14-0 undefeated team. Something also smells like an upset here. If Atlanta wins outright, I want a monument to be built on my behalf.
DALLAS +6.5 vs. BUFFALO — RISKING $1,100 to WIN $1,000…..Both teams are done for the season, but Dallas still playing with some pride (Jason Garrett’s job on the line?). I’d like this closer to -4. Give me the visitor getting the generous points and hope for a close game. Bill have no business laying this kind of chalk. Weather a non-factor.
SAN FRANCISCO +10 at DETROIT — RISKING $1,100 to WIN $1,000…..Similar game four weeks ago saw 49ers go in and win at Chicago. Detroit coming off the fat and happy MNF road win last Monday night and now on short week have to play weak team, laying double digits. This is simply too many points for the Lions to lay against anyone. San Francisco defense should keep this withing the margin.
CLEVELAND +10 at KANSAS CITY — RISKING $1,100 to WIN $1,000…..This is my “hold your nose” special. It’s painful to say the words, “give me the Cleveland Browns.” But Kansas City seems to be winning with smoke and mirrors. A similar game two weeks ago at home resulted in an ugly 10-3 win, and I’m expecting something similar here. Chiefs don’t blow out their opponents, so give me the generous points and hope for a lackluster effort by the home team, in addition to QB Johnny Manziel showing up sober for the game.
NY JETS +3 vs. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS — RISKING $550 to WIN $500…..just a feeling.
ST. LOUIS +12 vs. SEATTLE — RISKING $550 to WIN $500….Wait. Should’t the dismal Rams be getting like +16 in a game like this? Will these shits even score. Fuck it, this is the right side. I expect less tickets will be written on Rams this week than any other team.
CHICAGO +3.5 vs, TAMPA BAY — RISKING $550 to WIN $500…..Tampa Bay is laying more than a field goal? To who? New Mexico State? Give me the points no matter who the opponent is.
HOUSTON / TENNESSEE UNDER 41 — RISKING $550 to WIN $500…..The final score of this game might be 6-2.
GREEN BAY +4.5 at PHOENIX — RISKING $550 to WIN $500…..If you don’t take the Packers plus 4.5, you have no business betting football. I’m as impressed as anyone with the Cardinals play this year. However, one has to play the dog here getting such a generous number.
FIRST HALF BETS:
NY GIANTS +4 — $330 to WIN $300
CHICAGO +2.5 — $330 to WIN $300
ATLANTA +3.5 — $330 to WIN $300
DALLAS +3.5 — $330 to WIN $300
SAN FRANCISCO +6 — $330 to WIN $300
CLEVELAND +6.5 — $330 to WIN $300
GREEN BAY +3 — $330 to WIN $300
ST. LOUIS +7 — $330 to WIN $300
Other games: No, I’m not betting on Jimmy Clausen. Even contrarianism has its limitations. No fucking way you can pull the trigger on home Ravens, even getting +9.5. They’re playing Pittsburgh, which could score 50. Pass……….Miami/Indy is a pass — game is an embarrassment…….would like to bet JAX, but game is still off the board. NOR has mailed it in, and I’d like to take the points no matter what with Jags in New Orleans.
NOLAN DALLA — 2015 NFL SEASON RECORD
47 WINS – 83 LOSSES — 3 PUSHES
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $11,175
NET GAIN/LOSS: + $1,175.
BEST BETS OF THE WEEK: 11 – 8 – 2
LAST WEEK: 2 — 0 — 0
TEASER: Kansas City -.5 with New England -8 Risking $2,925. to win $2,659……winner
TEASER: Kansas City -.5 with Seattle -8 Risking $2,925. to win $2,659……winner
SEASON WIN TOTALS — WAGERS (-$2,425)
Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 8.5 (+115) — wagering $2,000 to win $2,300…..loser
Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 9.5 (-110) — wagering $1,050 to win $1,000…..winner
NY Jets UNDER 7.5 (-120 /-135) — wagering $1,275 to win $1,000…..loser
Tennessee Titans OVER 5.5 (-150) — wagering $450 to win $300…..loser
Cleveland Browns UNDER 6.5 (-170) — wagering $510 to win $300……winner