2026-27 NFL SEASON: WEEK 3 – ANALYSIS AND PICKS
2026-27 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 16
LOSSES — 17
PUSH — 1
NET WIN/LOSS — – $400.
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 9-8-0 (- $60)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $9,600.
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)Note: You can real ALL WRITE-UPS for EVERY GAME this week and MORE PICKS at the following website link: CLICK HERE
https://www.betcoin.ag/page/nolan-2026-week3/
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
DET-BUF Second-Half Total: OVER 27.5 points….W
Player Prop: DET TE Kincaid OVER 49.5 receiving yards….W
Player Prop: DET RB Gibbs UNDER 95.5 rushing yards….W
Player Prop: PIT QB Rodgers OVER 21.5 pass completions (-115)…W
Player Prop: PIT QB Rodgers OVER 34.5 pass attempts (-110)…W
Full-Game Side: HOUSTON -2.5 vs. Cincinnati (-105)…L
Full-Game Side: NY Jets +3.5 vs. Green Bay (-105)…W
Player Prop: TB QB Mayfield OVER 211.5 passing yards (-115)…L
Player Prop: CLE QB Watson throw interception–YES (-145)…L
First Quarter Line: Washington +.5 vs. Dallas (-135)…L
Full-Game Line: WASHINGTON +4.5 vs. Dallas (-115)…L
Player Prop: ATL RB Brian Robinson OVER 26.5 rushing yards (-115)…W
Player Prop: NOR QB Shough OVER 231 passing yards (-115)…W
Team Total: Jacksonville OVER 22.5 (-105)…L
Team Total: Denver UNDER 24.5 (-105)…W
Player Prop: ARZ PK Ryland OVER 6 points (-130)…L
Full-Game: MIA-SFO UNDER 44.5…L
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WEEK 3 ANALYSIS AND PICKS
ATLANTA at GREEN BAY
Line: Packers -6.5
Total: O/U 44.5
This first thing we look at is the Falcons’ bizarre QB situation. What a shitshow. Third-stringer bustout C. Rush was abysmal in his two starts. Newly acquired Tagovailoa is apparently on a cruise in Antarctica. Thankfully, Michael Penix is finally healthy enough to start a game. Gawd, the Falcons have looked like garbage. They smell.
So, of course — I’m betting on them this week. There’s a powerful angle on fading short-week favorites coming off an OT game. They perform terribly ATS. The Packers played the Jets in extra innings last week. They’ve looked like a mess in both games, so grabbing points with the opponent seems like the wise contrarian play.
I don’t know why QB Penix wasn’t given more encouragement from the staff. What I saw was a gutsy QB with marginal talent around him fighting to win games and he had a decent stat line with nearly 2K yards / 9 TDs / just 3 ints in his 9 starts last year. I understand why the Falcons decided to grab Tua at a garage sale in the offseason. However, Penix has the skills and enough games under his belt to play a decent game here — and there’s talent on this offense, so long as a QB is starting who can throw a forward pass. I like this QB change and expect it will spark a better effort from Atlanta this week, though admittedly they could not have possibly looked worse offensively than to get spanked by Pittsburgh and Carolina.
Defensively, 0-2 Atlanta’s two performances may be misleading. Sure, they lost and looked bad last week. However, the Falcons rush defense gave up only 58 rushing yards against Steelers — then, only total rushing yards against Panthers. Those are stellar numbers, though it’s a small sample size. If Atlanta shuts down Green Bay on the ground, I’m thrilled to fade Love’s erratic passing prospects.
Some bettors will jump on 1-1 Green Bay under a touchdown, and in years past this might have been a *rebound* spot for them. Still, I don’t think this is a very good team. QB Love is going to end up busting their salary cap with mediocrity. And the Pack has not covered in SEVEN straight, dating back to last season. This line is an outdated overreaction to false perceptions that Green Bay is one of the better NFC teams. They are not.
I look for Atlanta to keep this one close. Not confident they win outright at Lambeau Field on a short week, but I do think they can keep this within the margin. This line opened at GBP -6.5 and is now -6 and even as low as -5.5 in some spots. Make sure to capture the +6, as this is unplayable below that number. I don’t like using “sharps” vs. “squares” language because it’s not relevant anymore, though this matchup is likely to have heavy public money on Green Bay, while large volume big-bettors recognize value and will take Atlanta.
As for player props, if you were with me last week, I had an easy winner on Brian Robinson, the secondary running back (note this isn’t BIJAN, but BRIAN Robinson). His O/U on rushing yards was just 26.5 and he doubled that with 51 yards (11 carries). Week 1 was also an OVER, as Robinson picked up 31 (9 carries). Assuming he gets 10 carries this week, that should be enough to break what seems like a very low O/U on his rushing yardage, which is just 24.5 this week. We have to be careful with RBs coming off short weeks. But that number should be easy for Robinson to break, so long as he gets his usual time and carries. Also note, Atlanta was playing from behind in both previous games, so getting rushing yardage was tougher, especially late in the game. Good spot here for another OVER on Robinson’s yardage.
Finally, I like Atlanta for the full game, so taking them +3.5 for the first half is a value I can’t pass up. Three bets in all on the Thursday Night game.
Wagers:
Full Game Side – ATL +6.5 v. GBP (-110)
First-Half Side – ATL +3.5 (-115)
Player Prop – ATL RB B. Robinson OVER 24.5 yards (-110)
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CINCINNATI at PITTSBURGH
Line: Bengals -2.5
Total: O/U 42.5
We’re not supposed to over-react to what we see after just two games. But these teams have performed about as opposite as things get. Cincy has finally lived up to early-season expectations, with a vastly-improved defense to go along with a top-five rated offense. AFC North rival Pittsburgh looks awful, especially on offense. Their rushing game is non-existent (just 74 YPG, currently ranking 29th in the NFL). Those are not typical Steeler numbers we’re used to.
This provides bettors to take advantage of a few props that have not caught up to reality. Last week, my write-up recommended OVERS on PIT QB Rodgers’ passing props. Even though the Steelers didn’t score TDs, he still easily eclipsed the numbers. I see no reason not to go back to the same betting window and order another main course of Rodgers OVER on his passing.
It’s clear coach McCarthy is changing the complexion of this offense, though the transition has been rocky. Consider, Rodgers had 40 pass attempts in Week 1, and that was in a lopsided game (vs. ATL) where Pittsburgh led most of the way and didn’t have to pass much. Last week, Rodgers had 39 pass attempts at NWE. In these first two weeks, despite poor production, he still connected on 24 and 23 passes, respectively. I see no reason why a similar pass-oriented game plan won’t repeat, especially versus Cincinnati which allowed mediocre passer CJ Stroud (HOU) to go 30 for 55 for 363 last week through the air.
Hence, I’m betting those two Aaron Rodgers props again — OVER on both attempts and completions. The market has inched up on both props by just one attempt and completion, which isn’t enough of an adjustment. And with CIN QB Burrow likely airing it out, this too could force the Steelers into more passing, especially if they’re behind — and they’re underdogs in this game so that makes sense. Local press has been hammering the PIT receivers, and even some ex-Steeler legends have been posting about the lack of big plays from this WR corps. I expect this all leads to more passing — or at least near the same numbers we’ve seen the past two weeks.
Wagers:
Player Prop: PIT QB Rodgers OVER 22.5 pass completions (-115)
Player Prop: PIT QB Rodgers OVER 35 pass attempts (-115)
SEE ALL THE GAME WRITEUPS AND PICK EXPLANATIONS AT (CLICK LINK):
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FINAL LIST OF WEEK 3 WAGERS:
(For those who just want the picks)
Full Game Side – ATL +6.5 v. GBP (-110)
First-Half Side – ATL +3.5 (-115)
Player Prop – ATL RB B. Robinson OVER 24.5 yards (-110)
Player Prop: PIT QB Rodgers OVER 22.5 pass completions (-115)
Player Prop: PIT QB Rodgers OVER 35 pass attempts (-115)
Full-Game Side: DET -6.5 vs. NYJ (-115)
Full-Game Side: CAR -2.5 vs. CLE (-115)
Player Prop: CAR WR McMillan OVER 60 receiving yards (-115)
Full-Game Side: ARZ +8.5 vs. SFO (-110)
Player Prop: NOR QB Cousins OVER 211.5 passing yards (-115)
Player Prop: HOU RB Montgomery OVER 49.5 rushing yards (-110)
Full-Game Side: SEA -7.5 v. WAS (-105)
Full-Game Side: DET -6.5 v. NYJ (-110)
First Drive Result: NYJ punt (+105)
Full-Game Team Total: NYJ UNDER 20.5 (-110)
Full-Game Side: MIN -1.5 vs. TBB (-115)
Player Prop: BUF TE Kincaid OVER 58.5 receiving yards (-115)
First-Half Team Total: Chicago OVER 9.5 points (-105)
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