MY FOOTBALL BETTING — 2026 (UPDATE)
The first month is over and done. I’d like to give readers an overall update and assessment in this report. Investors can visit the Facebook page “2026 LAS VEGAS NFL BETTING SYNDICATE” to follow along with every football pick this season. I’ll also share my notes about what I’ve learned, so far.
Overall, this has been an excellent start to the season. However, there were also disappointments, and errors in judgment which cost me. Again, I’m sharing those thoughts here.
— Let’s start with the LAST MAN STANDING contest (Stations Casinos). 6,900 entries, and it’s already down to only 600 remaining. Prize — $150,000 to the winner. We started with 5 tickets, and still have 3 live entries. If we last a few more weeks, this will get really interesting. Very happy with these results.
— WILLIAM HILL (CAESARS) NFL WEEKLY contest. We’ve struck out on this contest, so far. Nothing of consequence to report. Huge number of entries, so it’s a longshot, anyway.
— WESTGATE SUPERCONTEST is the biggest financial investment — we have 4 entries costing $6,000. Close to a thousand entries in the contest. This is the contest we finished second in two seasons ago, for $185,000 in profit. The first leg of mini-contest is done, and we failed to cash. However, the overall season standings and results are excellent. Three of these four tickets are hitting 60 percent — if we hit 60 percent over 18 weeks, we’ll certainly cash in this contest. But, it’s still very early:
OVERALL RECORD: 34-26-0
TICKET #1 (Record: 9-6-0)
TICKET #2 (Record: 9-6-0)
TICKET #3 (Record: 9-6-0)
TICKET #4 (Record: 7-8-0)
— CIRCA MILLIONS is the contest we most want to do well in, the most. That’s because it’s a $1,000,000 for first, and I believe it pays the top 100 finishers. Four entries for $1,000 each, costing $4,000. Around 7,000 entries, if I recall correctly. Here we have two tickets in terrific shape, and three in contention. Very encouraging results, so far:
OVERALL RECORD: 36 – 24 – 0
TICKET #1 (Record: 7-8-0)
TICKET #2 (Record: 10-5-0)
TICKET #3 (Record: 10-5-0)
TICKET #4 (Record: 9-6-0)
— WESTGATE COLLEGE FOOTBALL CONTEST cost us $1,500 invested on 3 entries. This is the contest I don’t expect to do well in, given I don’t give this as much time and frankly, do not follow college football nearly as much as the NFL. Still, I opted to play it, hoping to learn more and perhaps make adjustments that will net a profit. One ticket is surprisingly in good shape and on the margins of cashing based on percentages. I’d love to have one ticket cash in this contest:
OVERALL RECORD: 43-41-0
ENTRY #1: Season Record to Date: ( 14 – 14 )
ENTRY #2: Season Record to Date: ( 12 – 16 )
ENTRY #3: Season Record to Date: ( 17 – 11 )
— MINNESOTA VIKINGS FUTURES TICKET: I have ONE futures bet, which is a $1,000 wager on Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC. This pays 23-1 ($23,000). So far, so good. Vikings are 3-0. Even better, they’re in first place and already beat two division rivals. It’s early, but this started out almost perfectly. Admittedly, I’m worried about their QB situation.
— BETCOIN POSTED NFL PICKS (ALL CASH BETS) are 25 wins / 23 losses which net resulted in a small loss, so far. This is because of the vig on losses. I’d like to see better results here, as about half of my wagers are on player props, and that’s historically been a strong performer. Still early in the season, and I have a history of starting slowly. This is the write-ups I post at the site BETCOIN.AG, which I also bet. I post links on my page to this once a week.
Now, some notes on what I’ve learned. I’ll keep these brief (perhaps a video is better, since I can go into more detail — I’ll do that next time):
1. I’ve made the mistake of betting college football favorites of -14.5 on approx. 6 selections, and lost all of them. Four of the spots were half point losses, meaning my team won by only 14. I have to be careful about that number going forward. The thinking goes — when oddsmakers give that hook onto two touchdowns, they really beg for underdog money, so the favorite is actually the value (oversimplifying here). When I researched it, I found no correlation on +14.5 faves or dogs performing out of the ordinary (20 years of college football data). So, I just got very unlucky. Nonetheless, I’m going to avoid those -14.5 faves going forward.
2. My weighing of bets is poor. I’ve never been good with weighing picks, on any sport. This includes th NFL. Betting more on a game we really like has not proven successful for me. This is one reason I mostly flat bet (on the reports I write). However, I have weighed many teams more heavily in the contests and those have not done well. Some of my biggest picks in the contests, on multiple tickets, have crashed and burned. Despite this, the results are very good. I’ll go with the strategy of diversifying more, when I can. Best example is the NFL SEATTLE bet I placed on all the contest tickets, because the spread on the contests was -7, and the Seahawks closed at -8, so we were getting great value. Seattle lost outright. Those losses are a killer, because they destroy all the tickets when they lose. Of course, when they win….
3. I have to be very careful about betting public teams, almost always as big favorites. In college football weeks 2-3, I was kicking myself for picking Notre Dame, USC, Penn State, Texas A&M, and other big schools. Those teams are NEVER a bargain, and more often oddsmakers shade the lines a point or two because they know how the public money flows. I’m really upset with myself for playing these sucker bets. I should know better, after all these years. Dumb mistake.
4. Line movement used to be a very useful tool, or at least was a good starting point. But when a game opens at -3 and gets bet up to -4.5 (on the open market), it doesn’t always mean the -3 favorite should be picked in the contests (those numbers are stale, since they come out Tue. or Wed. and lines have moved by kickoff). This is not as useful a handicapping tool today as it used to be (lots of dumb money sometimes moves lines).
5. A QB change (usually the starter gets injured and the backup is playing instead) can sometimes move a pre-game spread 3-6 points. But the outcomes aren’t what expect. Take the MNF game last night with Williams out, and Keenum starting for the Bears. Line shifted to PHILA -4.5. Of course, the Bears started th backup and they won by 20. Same situation with Washington, as line shifted, and then the Commanders busted the Super Bowl champs by winning outright. QB changes aren’t always what they seem, and the market often overvalues this change.
Finally, I’ve had a few people ask why I share picks publicly, especially the contest picks. What I’ve learned is — almost everyone thinks of themselves as a football expert. So, even sharing things publicly doesn’t impact things. People still want to make their own picks. If the contest goes deep and it’s close in the standings, obviously I will then be more guarded (you can’t tip picks to competitors in a close contest in the final weeks, for instance). Hope this explains my M.O.
I’ll share more thoughts in the next update, near the end of October.