IMPORTANT NOTE:
Be sure and visit BETCOIN CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week.
2025 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 17
LOSSES — 14
PUSH — 0
NET WIN/LOSS — +$140
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 8-8-0 (-$100)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $10,140
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
[Click HERE to read the previous week’s report.]
Washington-Green Bay UNDER 49–full game total…W
Atlanta Falcons +3.5 (even) vs. Minnesota…W
Player Prop: ATL RB Allgeier OVER 23.5 rushing yards…W
Cleveland +12.5 vs. Baltimore…L
Miami -1.5 vs. New England…L
Player Prop: LAR RB Williams OVER 72.5 rushing yards…L
LA Rams -5.5 vs. Tennessee…W
Player Prop: CHI WR Odunze OVER 4.5 receptions (+120)…W
Seattle +3.5 vs. Pittsburgh (-120)…W
Player Prop: SEA RB Walker OVER 1.5 receptions (-155)…L
Player Prop: BUF QB Allen OVER 233.5 passing yards (-115)…L
Dallas -5.5 vs. NY Giants…L
Player Prop — Will both kickers make 33+ yards FGs–YES (-130)…W
Arizona -6.5 vs. Carolina…L
Jacksonville / Cincinnati OVER 49 points–full game total…W
Houston -2.5 vs Tampa Bay…L
GENERAL THOUGHTS HEADING INTO WEEK 3:
I talked to my good friend, Las Vegas professional gambler Blair Rodman earlier today. Long story short, he asked me if I use artificial intelligence (AI) in any of my handicapping and research. There’s probably a joke in there someplace, but I’ll just stick to the point. The answer is – no.
At his suggestion, I did some experimenting. I played around with CHAT GPT in search of information that might be useful. I uncovered one powerful betting idea, which I’ll share here. Later, I discovered related angles were recently published at VSIN, which is a very good source of info for handicapping.
As a bettor, I’ve always been a contrarian. In the NFL, Week 3 might be the ultimate test of faith. Contrarian betting means wagering on several teams that haven’t won games, have failed to cover pointspreads, and have looked terrible, so far.
That said, the percentages do not lie.
I’ll be betting on several 0-2 teams this week. CHAT GPT shows these to hit anywhere in between 55-70 percent across the board, depending on the parameters. The thing is, they’re profitable and don’t require any added work, except to have faith and the guts to bet them.Let me credit an outside source for the following data. Steve Makinen (VSIN) published some powerful betting angles which apply to this week’s games. It appears there’s a sufficient number of trials to warrant confidence. Accordingly, I’ll be using these specific betting angles as the foundation of multiple side bets. I don’t see any need to justify the sides in a write up, as they’re almost entirely based on situational data and past history.
Here’s two betting angles (again–credit Mr. Makinen) worth considering:
(1) Winless teams are 23-35-1 SU but 39-20 ATS (66.1 percent) in Week 3 when playing as underdogs of +3.5 points or more since 2010.
Explanation: 0-2 teams are desperate, and though they don’t often win (just 40 percent), they do play better than expected and cover at a high rate.
MIAMI +12.5 at Buffalo
CAROLINA +6 vs. Atlanta
CLEVELAND +8 vs. Green Bay
NY JETS +7 at Tampa Bay
NEW ORLEANS +7.5 at Seattle
NY GIANTS +6 vs. Kansas City (Note: Both teams are 0-2, but the Giants are getting +6, which makes them the play)
TENNESSEE +4 vs. Indianapolis
(2) Teams that start the season 0-2 SU are 31-27 SU and 40-17-1 ATS (70.2 percent) against 1-1 teams in Week 3 since 2010.
Explanation: This is a powerful subset of the desperate teams, particularly when playing against non-elite teams. Not only do they win more than they lose, they also cover at an astonishingly impressive rate.
Quoting Mr. Makinen:
“A tidal wave of negativity gets associated with the winless teams after two weeks, and while they typically remain bad when matched against undefeated teams, they do perform quite well against middle-of-the-road opponents. In most cases, 1-1 teams have shown early signs of inconsistency, and I don’t know any bettors who are actively looking to bet teams like that. Trust that the desperate 0-2 teams will bring their best effort into this week’s game, motivated by the fear of going 0-3 and what that has historically meant to teams’ playoff chances.”
CAROLINA +6 vs. Atlanta
HOUSTON +1.5 vs. Jacksonville
NEW ORLEANS +7.5 vs. Seattle
CHICAGO +1 vs. Dallas
ANALYSIS AND PICKS FOR WEEK 3:
MIAMI at BUFFALO (Thursday)
I’m holding my nose, taking the plunge, and betting Miami +12.5. There’s no compelling reason to bet the dog other than faith in the betting angle on 0-2 teams (see comments above). Let’s combine this faith with some evidence that double-digit division dogs are profitable blind bets when done across the board. I see 20 years of results showing 10+ point dogs in divisional games have gone 24-17 since 2006.
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Two player props also tempt my wallet:
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BUF TE Kincaid OVER 2.5 pass receptions (-180)
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Bills QB Josh Allen has plenty of inviting targets and he may not have to throw the ball much to handle the weak Dolphins. That said, Kincaid appears to be among Allen’s favorite targets; so he should get the ball thrown in his direction. Last week in a cakewalk against the Jets, Kincaid had 4 catches in 6 targets. He also had 4 catches in the Week 1 opener. He’s steadily improved production, as in 13 games last season he had 75 targets and 44 catches (about 3.5 per game) and that was splitting time with another TE. Given that the other TE dropped two passes last week, we can expect Kincaid to be the more trusted receiver. In two games last season versus MIA, Kincaid caught 4 passes in each game. Let’s add the obvious — MIA’s defense has been horrendous. The obvious concern here is the vig, priced at -180. I’ve seen some other O/U props, which show 3.5, also juiced high. So, the 2.5 -180 at MGM looks reasonable.
MIA Tagovailoa QB OVER 233.5 passing yards (-125)
Based on this spread, regardless of which side we like, we also have to presume that MIA will be playing from behind part of, if not much of the game. That should translate into more passes from the Dolphins’ offense. MIA failed to run the ball effectively in either game, so far. Tagovailoa tossed a bad pick late in last week’s game, but otherwise his stat line was very impressive — 26 of 32 for 315 yards passing. We should see at least that number of attempts this week, which makes me lean way OVER 233.5. We also have the deep threat of WR Ty Hill, who could help with chunks of yardage if he has a good night (O/U is 5.5 catches). I also think BUF’s high pass defense ranking is a bit of a mirage since they’ve faced two QBs (Jackson and Fields) who are known more for their running than passing. Tagovailoa has proven the ability to enjoy big games and given all the pressure is on him in this game, I expect he’ll deliver the stats, if not the points.
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Wagers:
Miami +12.5 vs. Buffalo
BUF TE Kincaid OVER 2.5 pass receptions (-180)
MIA Tagovailoa QB OVER 233.5 yards (-125)
Final Picks for Week 3 (For those who just want the picks):
Miami +12.5 vs. Buffalo…W
BUF TE Kincaid OVER 2.5 pass receptions (-180)…W
MIA Tagovailoa QB OVER 233.5 yards (-125)…L
Carolina +6 vs. Atlanta (full game)
First-Half: Carolina +3
Player Prop: CAR QB Young OVER 30.5 pass attempts (-115)
Tennessee +4 vs. Indianapolis (-105)
First Quarter: TEN +.5 (-130)
First-Half: Cincinnati + 1 (-110)
First-Half: New England +.5 (-120)
First-Half: Chicago +.5 (-130)
LVR/WAS: Will both kickers make 33+ yard FGs–YES (-130)
DEN / LAC: Will both kickers make 33+ yard FGs–YES (-130)
KC / NYG: Will both kickers make 33+ yard FGs–YES (-130)
Cleveland + 8 vs. Green Bay
NY Jets +6.5 vs. Tampa Bay
Houston +2 vs. Jacksonville
New Orleans +7.5 vs. Seattle
Chicago +1 vs. Dallas
Baltimore -4 vs. Detroit (MNF)